Over/Under Contest Recap and the first two weeks of the NFL season

It’s officially time to review our 19 brave entries into SportsChump’s first ever NFL Over/Under contest.  Not a bad turnout if I do say so myself.  Best of luck, gentlemen.  Feel free to bookmark this page and check in every so often to monitor your progress.  I plan on reviewing the season (and our picks) periodically to see who stands the best shot at SportsChump stardom.

 

Regarding our pool-wide picks, I can’t say there was too much that surprised me, however, with a significant enough random sample, there were considerably more UNDER picks (102) than OVER picks (88), which tells me either we think there are more bad NFL teams than good or we’re just a bunch of haters.

Here’s what else stood out from this year’s entries.  If this information can, in any way, help you win money with your NFL wagering, please don’t forget to send me a thank you card.

Least touched team: Carolina Panthers

Only one person, the daring Hanahan, took a stab, either over or under, on Carolina, taking them under 4.5 wins.  Everyone else stayed away entirely.  I guess it looks like nobody’s really sure what Cam Newton can do after all.  However, after passing for over 850 yards in Weeks One and Two, the rookie only needs 11 more seasons to pass Brett Favre’s record for career passing yards.

Most convinced to be horrible: Miami Dolphins

Not too many fans are on the Chad Henne bandwagon these days.  In fact, if his momma were in this pool, she might have bet Miami under just to fit in.  Not a single person picked the Fish to finish over 8 wins yet thirteen of us, including yours truly, picked them to lose that many.  As a friend told me before the season started “The Dolphins have to play the Pats and Jets twice, all four of which they’ll lose.  That means they’ll have to win 8 out of their remaining 12 games.  Ain’t happenin’.”  Can’t say I disagree.

Teams that saw the most action

1 – The aforementioned Dolphins – 13 picks

2 – Tennessee Titans – 9 picks

Apparently, not many of us were impressed with Matt Hasselbeck replacing Vince Young.  Eight of us picked Tennessee to win under seven games.  Only one of us, Dwindy, picked them to win over that amount.  Keep in mind, this Titans team has won eight or more games in four of their last five seasons and that’s playing in the same division as a healthy Peyton Manning.  Of course, 2010 was not one of those seasons.

3 – Colts, Patriots, Lions – 8 picks each

Surprisingly, more of us picked Indianapolis to finish over ten wins rather than under, although most of those picks were submitted between Peyton Manning’s first and second neck surgeries.  Kerry Collins appreciates your support.  Seven out of the eight of us who picked New England took them over 11.5.  After a 2-0 start, that’s looking like a smart play.  The Suh-led Lions have been a trendy pick and, after beating the Bucs and Chiefs in Weeks One and Two, they look like they’re well on their way to being a better than .500 team.  Five out of the eight of us who picked Detroit had them over.

Most over selections

1 – New England Patriots – 7 picks

Our love affair with the New England Patriots continues… for good reason.  Bill Belichick’s still their coach and Tom Brady’s still their quarterback.  The win totals for New England and Green Bay topped Vegas’ projections this season with 11.5 victories, yet for some reason, even though the Packers are last year’s Super Bowl champs, more of us are confident the Pats will have a better regular season.  Meanwhile, only Drew took the Packers over that very same number.  After watching both Green Bay and New England early on, these two seem destined for the playoffs… and probably the over.

2 – San Diego Chargers/ Atlanta Falcons – 6 picks each

Like Detroit, the Chargers and Falcons were also both trendy over picks.  The Chargers fell short last season, as they usually do, but most feel, in a weak AFC West, this is the year they rattle off a healthy amount of wins.  Similarly, prognosticators are still waiting for Matty Ice and the Falcons to take that next step as well.

3 – Broncos, Lions, Colts, Eagles – 5 picks each

I wouldn’t touch the Denver melodrama with a ten-foot pole.  Will Orton start?  Will Tebow start?  And who’s buying up all those billboards?  While 5.5 wins is a low number for a team that perennially wins more than that, for anyone to say with any certainty that Denver will be competitive this season is crazy.  Could Kyle Orton finally prove without a doubt he’s the number one starter?  Sure.  Could the Broncos end up starting Brady Quinn?  Uh… yeah.  Then there’s the NFL’s 2011 Dream Team or so they’ve been dubbed.  With all the talent Philadelphia added to its roster this off-season, most thought it might take the Eagles a while to gel.  It didn’t look that way in Week One against St. Louis.

Most under selections

1 – Dolphins -13 picks

Why pile on the Dolphins any more than we already have?  Let’s just say if the Dolphins make the playoffs, all of us will be surprised.

2- Titans – 8 picks

Unfortunately for Titans fans, Frank Wycheck and Kevin Dyson are not walking through that door any time soon.  However, they did take care of Baltimore in Week Two.

3 – 49ers – 6 picks

Brand new head coach.  Same old starting quarterback.  Eight wins might be tough to come by in the City by the Bay, or at least six of us seem to think so.

Teams nobody picked over

Dolphins – 0 overs, 13 unders

49ers – 0 overs, 6 unders

Bears – 0 overs, 4 unders

Bills – 0 overs, 3 unders

Panthers – 0 overs, 1 under

We’ve already touched on the Panthers, Dolphins and Niners so let’s just head on to the Bills and Bears, shall we?  I stayed away from the Bills entirely  In fact, most of us did, with only three of us choosing them under.  This just in… they’re 2-0!!!  But when’s the last time someone other than a disillusioned Bills fan actually took them over for the season?  Probably not since the days of Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas.  I’m actually surprised nobody took at shot at Chicago over.  Probably the Jay Cutler factor, but didn’t this team go 11-5 last year, make the playoffs and win its division?

Teams nobody picked under

Eagles – 5 overs, 0 unders

Will Michael Vick do what Donovan McNabb couldn’t?  Bring the Eagles a championship?  Jeffrey Lurie is willing to wager $100 million that he will.

Rams – 4 overs, 0 unders

The Rams, like the Texans, Lions and Falcons are a trendy over pick.  A young team who’s time has come to turn the corner, or so some of us think.  The Rams have a promising young quarterback and play in one of the worst divisions in football.  Four among us think that’s enough to win more than 7.5 games.

 

Most assigned ten confidence points

Texans – 3 times

With Manning still recovering from injury, most of us put our confidence points squarely on the shoulders of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and the Houston Texans to win the AFC South.  All three of us who assigned them ten confidence points took them over their projected 8.5 wins.

Patriots, Falcons, Cardinals – Twice

We have our first dissension.  While most of like the Pats to finish over, TopHatAl actually assigned them ten confidence points to finish UNDER 11.5… and they’re his favorite team!  Apparently we also have some Kevin Kolb believers in the house as Yaz and Zbignu both like the Cardinals over seven.  They must have discussed that at the poker table.

Once again, best of luck, gentlemen.

40 thoughts on “Over/Under Contest Recap and the first two weeks of the NFL season

  1. Is it too late to jump off the Colt’s bandwagon? I think that I should of paid closer attention to the warning signs.

  2. Aer…

    Fortunately you didn’t put that many confidence points on ’em.

    I stayed away from Indy altogether because nobody was really sure what to make of Manning’s health.

  3. Ya’ know, Dub.

    They always talk about the importance of not starting 0-2 and making the playoffs.

    I’d like to know how many teams start out 2-0 and MISS the playoffs because I’d be willing to bet neither Washington nor Buffalo sniff the post-season.

    Any takers?

  4. I do believe that there’s a place in hell waiting for Chad Henne !

    He’ll be seated next to Pete Carroll and Todd Haley .

    tophatal …….

  5. Dude, as usual, very nice post and one Hell of a time this past weekend. I’m sworn off of drinking until the next time we get together. I’m trying to figure which bandwagon I’m gonna jump on. I’m thinking Buc’s, very impressive in that come back. By the way, make no doubt about…Cam is the man! GOOD NIGHT NOW!!

  6. E…

    I’ve basically slept since returning to Tampa. Good times.

    And if you’re looking for a bandwagon to jump on, I’m thinking the Detroit Lions are a pretty wise choice right now.

  7. Brett Favre, Al?

    At this point, I’m surprised Colts fans aren’t calling for Ryan Leaf.

    SEE, I TOLD YOU WE SHOULD HAVE DRAFTED HIM OVER MANNING!!! Surely, I jest.

    Cam will eventually cut down on the picks. After only two weeks, that number one pick is looking pretty good for Carolina.

    Who knew?

  8. I always knew Al was a pessimist but Hanahan?

    Guess I’m wishy washy… Middle of the road… A good politician! LOL!

    Hmmm, biggest surprise so far? Jay Cutler is still upright is a surprise with that great Bears O line…

    John Elway is going along with Head Coach John Fox on his assessment of Tim Tebow (The dude is a winner you loser!)

    The KC Chiefs are 0-2(!)

    And then there’s the Andrew Luck sweepstakes (This guy is the real deal, he’s got Stanford undefeated after the team lost a LOT of talent off last year’s version). In the hunt and in dire need… The Seattle Seahacks… Minn-AWE-sota Vikings… The Miami Dolphins who are Henne picked again (LOL!) and the Indianapolis Colts… Wouldn’t it be something for the Colts to get Luck and have Peyton tutor him?

    There ya go!

  9. Brett’s name is bound to come up this season with regard to any potential qb position that comes up for a team. That’s why I’m praying Brady stays healthy and Giselle leaves him alone during the week over the course of this season .

    Fox and Elway will go with Tebow for about as long as they can bear him . But given the assessment made by Schlereth over the player and his lack of understanding plays I say it comes down to poor communication from the coaches to Tebow in getting him in the right frame of mind .

    I’m waiting for Merchant and Mayweather to lace up the gloves and really entertain us ! That fight could be the real deal unlike the bs that took place on Saturday night ! Refereee Joe Cortez and the Nevada State Boxing Commission are both in the hip and back pocket of the WBC ! He had every right to disqualify both fighters but he chose no to .

    Still not impressed by the Lions ! But “Megatron” (Calvin Johnson) is the ” real deal” !

    tophatal ………….

  10. Dwin…

    I had a feeling the Chefs wouldn’t be quite the same after losing the slender one as their offensive coordinator. Now look what’s he doing with Brantley in Gainesville.

    I guess it’s no surprise there’s talk of teams tanking the season, but let me ask you this….

    If Commissioner Goodell wanted to suspend Terrelle Pryor for violating the “spirit of the supplemental draft,” shouldn’t he suspend franchises for tanking the season to land the first pick?

  11. Al…

    Brett Favre’s name is bound to come up “THIS” season? How about this season and many more to come!

    As long as they can bear Tebow, Al? C’mon. You know that everyone who spends any time with Tebow is a better person for it. Even the great John Elway. Hey, maybe Elway can go play for Indy!

    Still not impressed by the Lions? What else do they need to do to impress you? Keep in mind, Matthew Stafford is still the only starting quarterback to not be sacked.

  12. I know he’s old, Al, and this question is probably out of taste, but how many people’s asses do you think Larry Merchant could actually kick?

    If he sticks and moves as slow as he talks, I’d say he’d be an underdog against Larry King!

  13. Drew…

    I’m sure a few of us do.

    I’m really looking forward to seeing how this contest shapes out.

    I can tell you that I’m not doing all that well in my ATS pools. So far I’m 18-16 on the season.

  14. Chap…

    That’s funny. I hadn’t picked up on that.

    Although I did pick up on the fact that Al chose three AFC East teams, three NFC South teams and two NFC East teams, meaning… if he screws up just one of those, he probably screws up all three.

  15. Chris… Here’s one for ya…

    Did you see MNF? The Giants had two players laid out writhing in pain, right? Cramps (What they said)? Naw… The Ram’s hurry-up O had them on their heels! Tongues were draggin’ and their backs were against the end zone!

    The NFL (unlike soccer) has a rule about faking injuries and this was obvious. Do you think Roger will dish out any reprimands to the beloved New York Giants? Don’t hold your breath…

  16. Chris

    Personally I’d like to see Merchant in a sexual tryst with Betty White ! LOL,LOL !! I mean what harm can it do ? If Larry goes up against Money and he’s liable to be knocked the ##ck out !

    Brett’s name is coming up more often than the # of hits on Google for Kim Kardashian’s sex tape with Ray J .

    The girlfriend got me tickets for the J Cole gig at Jannus Live . It’s going to be poppin’ off at that place . I’ve heard his CD (Cole World) and it’s tight !

    Can’t Get Enough

    I’ve got friends in from Broomfield , Co as they’re heading off to Spain this week. They stopped in see me and I’ll be dropping them off at Orlando Int’l later on tonight . They’re ardent fans of the Broncos and they’ve told me the situation has become volatile between the supporters of Orton and Tebow. It hasn’t helped that both Elway and Fox can’t seem to be set on a decision in terms of who’s really the starting qb. I know that they’ve gone with Orton but in all honesty this team isn’t that good . Way too many flaws on both …. sides of the ball .

    tophatal ………….

  17. Chris

    Does anyone take into account injuries when they decide on their picks ? Look at the Colts and Rams at present ?

    chappy & Dwindy

    It’s not a matter ’bout thinking that the teams suck or being a pessimist !

    Chris

    What are the chances do you think that within the next five years college football will be turned on its head with there being only four or five super conferences ? Because that’s the way things now seem to be going with all of these moves by the various programs !

    The NCAA will be on the outside looking in with the major conferences in conjunction with the broadcast outlets having their say as to the format for a national champion . Playoffs or not things are about to change across the college football landscape . Simply look at the Longhorns and their tie in (a 20 year $ 3 billion deal) with ESPN ?

    The ” money /gravy train” are now heading out of the station and there a number of programs are now ready to jump on board .

    tophatal …………

  18. Dwin…

    Exactly. Should we now start calling them the New York Futbol Giants?

    I don’t know that he’ll throw out a penalty but it’s probably something they’ll look at in the future.

  19. Al…

    Are you suggesting there’s a Larry Merchant-Betty Whtie sex tape floating around out there? You’re a sick, sick man.

    I guess it’s good that their relationship is healthier than Orton and Tebow’s.

  20. Chris

    If Larry and Betty do have a sex tape , perhaps there’s hope for the octogenarians out there don’t you think ? I mean there’s now Viagra for both sexes to aid them in their performance . .

    As to the picks , I know you can’t foresee what can happen but injuries can obviously alter the landscape for the NFL teams. Look at the world of hurt at present for the Rams and Colts .

    At some point in the season for the Broncos Fox and Elway will come to a decision that won’t please all of the Broncos’ faithful . Even Brady Quinn has to be enjoying this all while getting paid for doing absolutely nothing .

    QB stats for the AFC and league as a whole .

    Give me your honest opinion as to the meandering mess that’s about to be created by what I believe will be these super conferences within college football ? Good or bad for the game overall ?

    tophatal ………………..

  21. Chris

    Sex between two consenting adults in spite of their collective age (over 160) ……… look man there’s nothing wrong with that at all !

    tophatal ……………..

  22. Chris,

    As promised here are the latest bettable DWTS odds.

    JR Martz 2/1
    Solo 3/1
    Lake 5/1
    Phillips 7/1
    Arqtte 8/1
    Cavllri 12/1
    Chaz 15/1
    Canalis 25/1
    Kressly 30/1
    Kardsn 35/1

    Ms Evil Look 150/1

    FWIW, I doubt the integrity of the producers. I bet Stacy Keibler a few years ago and I got back squat after 2 consecutive 10’s accross the board.

  23. Al…

    If Brett Favre texted Betty White a picture of his junk, do you think she’d be interested or would she treat him like Jenn Sterger did? Again, this is assuming Brett never actually texted a picture of his junk to Betty White in the first place.

    Still undecided on this whole college football shake-up thing. It’s funny. The fans that have been clamoring for a playoff for years are against conference realignment, even though that probably means we’re getting closer to a playoff.

    Can’t have it both ways, folks.

  24. RB…

    Were there odds on Ron Artest, er… sorry, Metta World Peace, charging into the stands to beat up some fans after getting voted off the island on his first try?

  25. PA….

    I’m gonna wait a few more weeks, perhaps right before mid-season before doing an official early tally, but I can tell you whoever had the Eagles under or the Bills or Niners over is looking to collect some early points.

  26. Chris, I didn’t even touch those three

    Here’s my problems/upsides
    1) Detroit is 5-0. That gives me the ability to get some points alot easier. Plus, it’s put some bounce in my step This whole year. I feel like a little kid aain.

    2)Colts are probably not going to make the mark

    3)Patriots are 4-1. That puts me in good running for ten points.

    4) All of us are scoring on the Dolphins

    5) I picked Jacksonville over 6.5 and that is going to come to fruition.

    Point city, here I come…

  27. PA talkin’ smack already.

    Yea, I see you definitely not getting points on Indy.

    Detroit and Miami should be no-brainers.

    We’re just gonna have to wait til the end of the season to how some of those high over/unders, i.e., Pittsburgh, New England, hit.

  28. PA…

    At this point, I may have to thrown in my own towel, which wouldn’t be entirely bad considering I already own a SportsChump hat and T.

    The Texans, who I chose over, have succumbed to major injury.

    The Cowboys, who I also chose over are, well, your same old Cowboys.

    And um, oh yeah, I took the Niners under.

    Hey, what do I know? I just run a sports website.

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