When statistics lie: The gross misunderstanding of Miami’s rebounding woes

Whenever we hear the average, and often misinformed, sportscaster talk about ways to beat the Miami Heat, one factor invariably comes up:  Size.  These so-called analysts go on and on about Miami’s lack of big men, pointing to their inability to rebound as one potential key to their demise.  A team with able-bodied bigs, they’ll continue, could knock off the defending champions.

To those analysts’ credit, Miami is last in the league in overall rebounding, averaging fewer than 40 a game.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story.  That’s what I’m here to do.

First of all, let’s get a few things straight.  The Miami Heat will win this year’s NBA championship.  Barring any catastrophic injury, or aliens reclaiming LeBron James back to the planet from which he came, Miami appears destined for another title.  In addition to their other-worldly MVP, they have another top five player named Dwyane Wade who people forget about because he’s playing alongside a guy who’s doing things ordinary humans don’t do.  They have a strong, veteran supporting cast loaded with players who can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court, and despite not having an overabundance of size in the paint, they have a perfectly capable mix of bodies that can defend opposing power forwards and centers.  They did last year and do again this year.  Of course, I could be wrong but a second consecutive championship seems as inevitable as the sun coming out tomorrow or LeBron dunking in your face.  The only reason the rest of the season is even worth watching is to see what he’ll do next.

So let’s address that rebounding issue.

First of all, rebounds stem from missed shots.  You can’t rebound what goes through the rim.  Considering Miami doesn’t miss much (they are FIRST in the league in field goal percentage at 49.3% – most analysts should mention this), their rebounding numbers will be skewed as a result.

Despite ranking dead last in the league in overall rebounding, they rank 11th in offensive rebounds allowed, probably the most important rebounding stat of them all.  That means they’re taking care of their own defensive glass and not allowing second chance points.  Furthermore, they’re only getting out-rebounded by 1.4 boards per game which is minimal considering they’re outscoring their opponents by seven points on average.  If you think Erik Spoelstra is hammering his players for their lack of rebounding, you’re mistaken.

All rebounds are not created equal.  Miami’s defensive rebounding statistics actually demonstrate they’re doing just fine.  Throw in the fact that they don’t miss many shots, and that they dictate tempo against any team in the league, we’re grasping at straws by suggesting that rebounding (or a supposed lack thereof) is Miami’s weakness.

Any monkey can pull up ESPN.com’s Miami Heat page, discover they rank last in the league in rebounding and press the panic button.  It takes a more, keen observer, or someone who actually watches the games, to realize Miami is more than competent on the boards.

You know who ranks second to last in the league in rebounding?  The Boston Celtics, another playoff team generally known for their ability to clean the glass.  You know who ranks 25th?  The San Antonio Spurs.  And by the way, the Knicks are 20th.  All of these are playoff teams, with size in the paint, yet we don’t criticize them as we do Miami.

While rebounding is undoubtedly important, total team rebounds can be a misleading statistic based on a team’s style of play.  For those of us paying attention to anything other than a stat sheet, Miami’s style of play and their rebounding are doing just fine.

43 thoughts on “When statistics lie: The gross misunderstanding of Miami’s rebounding woes

  1. Hey, we only criticize Miami because they have that fuckwad Lebron James on the team. You know, the guy most of us love to hate. Swap him for Kobe or Melo and we’d all love Miami a little more.

  2. There is little sense arguing who is the greater social reprobate among these athletic cretins, and it does little to obscure that the ‘Chump is a complete Heat homer!

    I’ll agree that LeBoner and sleeze Wade are the defending champions and should be reviled as such. However they are far from a lock to win another ring this year. Aside from LeBoner’s considerable “O” skills you would be hard pressed to claim the Heat to be the most talented complete team going into the playoffs.

    IMO, The Heat don’t win this years ring and it won’t have anything at all to do with rebounding.

    They’ll get beat in another way.

  3. Tree…

    Heat homer? I’ve been called worse.

    I’m just trying to keep it real, man. The way LeBron’s playing, I don’t see anyone knocking them off, although Kobe’s block on him in the All-Star Game last night was pretty damn nice.

    I’m waiting to hear who you think can, or even will take the Heat and why.

  4. It’s early to lay down coin but… On any given day I think that either the Thunder or the Clippers could take the Heat out. Durant and Westbrook are easily enough to match up with LeBoner and Wade and the Thunder bench has more cohesion. And Bosh doesn’t impress me.

    the Clippers are a story of their own and anytime CP3 gets hot the Clippers are going to win… too many tools, too many ex-Lakers with NBA playoff level experience and they are just meshing nicely right about now…

    too bad I can’t say that right now about the Lakers…

  5. CapnTreee / What he says.
    As for not being on the top 10 list of hated players, so what. It just proves that there are way too many fans who suck up. Talent and hate are two different things. Think Dwight Howard. Talent up the ass but still a major douchebag. As for Las Vegas odds, they’re never right 100% of the time. To be legend in the NBA, you can’t do it year after year with a no center and a 2nd rate point guard, not to mention absolutely no bench.

  6. Here’s why I think Heat still, Cap.

    Both L.A. and OKC are solid arguments but did you catch what Miami did to the Thunder last Thursday night in Oklahoma? That game was never close. Bad match-ups for OKC in that one, plus I can’t point to the impending emotional meltdown of the talented Russell Westbrook enough.

    The Clippers could be a tough match-up as well as they like to play more of an uptempo style but I’m still not sure their guards and forwards can hang with Miami’s nor am I convinced that the Clippers can score consistently in the half-court set.

    Okay, so maybe the playoffs will be more exciting to watch than I originally thought. Thanks for keeping me motivated.

  7. Snake…

    Jordan had workable centers and an average point guard for all his championships.

    I’m taking the Heat and giving you and Tree the field and will apologize if I’m wrong… but most certainly gloat when I’m right.

    Don’t you owe me a bottle of Crown from a few years back anyway?

  8. I don’t owe you shit and don’t you still owe me for that 8 ball of blow? Oops, never mind. lol

  9. It was only a matter of time before the Spurs homer reared his ugly head.

    Interesting stat though, huh, Bill? That the Spurs rank 25th in the league in total rebounding?

  10. Not concerned. They also lead the league in assists, road wins and % and are close to the top in fewest turnovers. They were out rebounded by 14 in Chicago and won by 14 playing without the big 3. Also, when they complete the rodeo road trip they will only have 7 road games in March and April with only one road back to back You have to win on the road in the playoffs and the Heat are an average road team. If I was a Heat fan, that would concern me more than the poor rebounding. Didn’t they lose twice to the Wizards? The Spurs should be favorites for home court thru out.

  11. So, Snake, what do you think of the story that Jordan just beat Kidd-Gilchrist in a game of one on one?

    The PTI boys are debating whether he’s currently better than any of the players on your third favorite team, the Charlotte Bobcats.

    Or does it just mean that Jordan doesn’t want to employ anyone better than him?

  12. Fabes…

    The games will play themselves out. Too many have counted out the Spurs in the past, incorrectly.

    More than anything with this piece, I wanted to show that too many ESPNers will look at the numbers, see the Heat rank last in rebounds and cry foul, when there’s a little bit more to it than that.

    FYI… The Spurs are +200 to win the West and +300 to win the title. The Thunder are +150 and +250 respectively.

  13. This article took us straight back to when we were watching Chris Bosh get embarrassed in the 2013 All-Star game. Bosh is as soft as Gasol on the block. It’s not mean, it’s the truth.

  14. CDR/BS…

    Bosh definitely seemed out of his element on Sunday night but who hasn’t Chris Paul embarrassed?

    Bosh’s numbers this season aren’t all that bad. He’s averaging 21, 7 and shooting 55%.

    I don’t think it’s fair to call him a liability.

  15. BTW Chris, you’re pumping up the wrong Miami team. Accolades belong to Larranaga’s Hurricanes. Just maybe you Gators fans can bite your lip and acknowledge this club’s achievements. Home tomorrow(Tues) versus a tough Va. team as a 7.5 favorite.

  16. Is it too too much to suggest that beyond rebounding woes to suggest that teams when it comes to offense have a problem with their shooting from beyond the arc (38.6 for the Heat) ?

    Best rebounding team in the NBA being the Pacers at 45.8 rebounds per game (inclusive of defense) .

    I’m sorry , but was I meant to sold on Sunday night’s bore and snooze-fest ? There were pieces of salacious act of porn to be had on a number of cable channels . Yet instead , I took in something far more meaningful and culturally enriching by catching up on PBS’ Masterpiece Theater (Dowton Abbey) . That’s just me , bro !

    As I said in my piece <a href="http://tophatal.wordpress.com/2013/02/15/the-league-of-extraordinary-gentlemen/&quot;. The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen the NBA this season , overall it has been underwhelming !

    Sad , about the death of Lakers’ owner Dr Jerry Buss , PhD at the age of eighty due to liver cancer . Hopefully, Jim Buss , Jerry Jr and Jeanie Buss , can carry on with the tradition of success . Albeit , that this season will ultimately go down as one of distinct failure .

    Tophatal ……

  17. Chris

    How f@@ked up is the NCAA investigation of the Canes ? Could the Keystone Cops of the silent movie era be any worse had they been brought in ? What a goddamn joke ! NCAA President Mark Emmert must be pi#sed at the investigators from the Infractions Committee for being so incompetent .

    Sad , with the untimely passing of Lakers’ owner Jerry Buss . Let’s see if Jeanie , Jim and Jerry Buss Jr can carry on with his success , with his , having presided over ten NBA titles as an owner of the franchise .

    Another meeting between Sternberg and the city of St Pete ? How anal retentive is the Rays’ owner ?

    Da’quan Bowers of the Bucs , is he not aware of FAA rules ? No guns on domestic or international flight , unless you’re federal law enforcement official . What an a#shole that guy just happens to be ! The Bucs simply need to cut his dumb a@s rather than keeping him on the roster , ’cause it’s clear his IQ is marginally above that of a gnat !

    Tophatal …………

  18. Stats lie. In football, some of the best pass defenses are because teams can run the ball at will on them. Some of the best run defenses exist because teams can throw on every down without any concern. Our government loves to spin all sorts of stats in their favor. But I digress…it doesn’t matter what the numbers are as long as that big ol’ scoreboard keeps tilting in your favor!

  19. Wow, Bets.

    That’s a pretty funny story. At least he didn’t say she tasted like Honey Nut Cheerios.

    And you’re right about the ‘Canes. Perfect storm.

    Larranaga’s a coach that has been there before. I expect them to continue doing damage through March. First time in the school’s history that they’ve been ranked this high.

  20. Al…

    Like I’ve said, I like the Pacers. And they’re doing all this without Granger, enough so that his name continues to surface in trade rumors.

    They’re a solid defensive team. I just don’t know that they can beat either the Knicks or Heat in a seven-game series.

    I’ll have my take up on Dr. Buss soon. One of the greatest owners in sports history without a doubt.

    Bizarre story about Bowers, man. He’s claiming he didn’t know the gun was in his bag? Not the kind of off-season Schiano wanted to start with, I imagine.

  21. Bowers didn’t know the gun was in his bag ? So who packed it for him , his mother ? Da’quan Bowers is a dumb a$s and a di#khead !

    The Pacers would be stupid to move Granger at this juncture , because an unforeseen injury could set that team back and then what would they have a stop gap replacement if Danny Granger wasn’t part of the lineup ?

    They can’t rely on Roy Hibbert !

    Who are these idiots , stating that LeBron James will seek to leave the Heat ?
    No way in hell, LBJ opts out of his contract and then heads back to the Cavs to play alongside Kryrie Irving ……… whom I now view as this generation’s Lil’ Penny as in Penny Hardaway ! And who are these idiots who believes that he (LBJ) will , when there is still another three years left on his current deal ? James doesn’t become a free agent until 2016 . And can you see the Heat trading away their best asset ?

    Just because Irving had a great time at the All Star Beak weekend bash , he’s now seen as the next big thing in the NBA ? No wonder the season smells like dog crap and the remains of the rear end of a dead elephant . These NBA analysts are beginning to make Mel Kiper seem all the more insightful , and that is especially, when you find out , that he colludes with the agents of draftees and then offers up somewhat biased opinions .

    I hear Akili Smith still can’t thank Mel enough , for those glowing reports of him being a perennial Pro Bowl caliber and impact-full player in the NFL .

    Smith had six uneventful years in the NFL . Kind of like being in Congress but you don’t get paid as much in there , as you do in the NFL for being so completely incompetent .

    Akili Smith <a href=" was the <a href="http:// third overall pick from the 1999 NFL Draft . And that year the first three picks were all quarterbacks , Tim Couch ( bust) , followed by at #2 , Donovan McNabb , with Smith being taken at #3 .

    The Bengals haven’t had a decent quarterback in years , going back to the likes of Testaverde and Kosar .

    ;)

    Tophatal …………..

  22. Stats never tell the whole story in sports. Never have. Derek Fisher, David Eckstein and the like show that heart can trump talent sometimes and numbers alone can’t define a player or team. As far as Miami marching unimpeded to another ring, I think the team they need to be most concerned about is Indiana. Call me crazy, I just think the Pacers match up well with the Heat. We’ll see how it plays out.

  23. Al….

    I’m sure there’s more to come out of this whole Bowers thing. Isn’t jail time a possibility?

    Yeah, if I were Indy, I wouldn’t move Granger either. Gotta give those two guys a chance to play alongside each other to see what they can do. I still don’t think it’s enough to take down Miami though.

  24. Bleed…

    Indy’s not sneaking up on anyone this year and after what happened in last year’s playoffs, Miami knows not to take them lightly.

    I agree with you that they match up fairly but I don’t think it’s enough.

  25. Jail time is possible , but I can see him merely getting a fine and having to serve a probationary period , with a possible loss of his weapon’s license . The bigger picture may well be how the Bucs’ front office view the matter, when you bear in mind that they’re looking to cut payroll in terms of the cap .

    Bowers’ cap hit for this season will be 1.051 million .

    Have you had your fill of the Pistorious’ story and the pre trial idiocy as of yet ? The prosecution in South Africa are screwing this case up faster than it took Chris Darden and Marcia Clarke to ##ck up the original OJ homicide trial back in the early nineties . How the hell can you have the lead investigator (detective) on the case be suspect in a attempted charge of eleven cases of attempted murder ? Hilton Botha and his two subordinates are about to go on trial for attempted murder in an incident dating back to late 2010 , wherein he and his two accomplices shot into a bus carrying innocent bystanders (including schoolchildren) in what was said to be at the time , these three police officers chasing after a homicide and robbery suspect . Works for me under some out of this world pretext , but we’re actually dealing in reality . So WTF ?

    Present NBA conference standings and if the playoffs were to start as of Monday , here’s the potential playoff format picture . Which match-ups in your mind are the most enticing and which do you believe could lead to a possible upset ?

    If The Playoffs Started Today
    Eastern Conference Western Conference
    vs.
    (1) MIAMI (1H/1A) vs. (8) Milwaukee
    (Series tied 1-1)
    vs.
    (2) NEW YORK (1H/1A) vs. (7) Boston
    (Series tied 1-1)
    vs.
    (3) INDIANA (1H) vs. (6) Atlanta
    (Atlanta leads 2-1)
    vs.
    (4) BROOKLYN (1H/1A) vs. (5) Chicago
    (Series tied 1-1)

    vs.
    (1) SAN ANTONIO (1A) vs. (8) Houston
    (San Antonio leads 3-0)
    vs.
    (2) OKLAHOMA CITY (1H/1A) vs. (7) Utah
    (Series tied 1-1)
    vs.
    (3) LOS ANGELES vs. (6) Golden State
    (Golden State won 3-1)
    vs.
    (4) MEMPHIS (1A) vs. (5) Denver
    (Denver leads 2-1)

    Above records are for the season series between the two teams
    Standings
    Eastern Conference
    Rank Team W-L PCT DIV CONF HOME AWAY GB >=.500 (H/A)* =.500 (H/A)* <.500 (H/A)* TIE BREAK BASIS
    1 San Antonio 44-12 0.786 11-2 24-8 22-2 22-10 0.0 14 (8-6) 12 (9-3) -
    2 Oklahoma City 39-15 0.722 5-3 27-8 23-4 16-11 4.0 14 (6-8) 14 (8-6) -
    3 L.A. Clippers 39-18 0.684 8-4 26-10 21-6 18-12 5.5 11 (6-5) 14 (8-6) -
    4 Memphis 35-18 0.660 4-5 19-13 21-8 14-10 7.5 13 (6-7) 16 (6-10) -
    5 Denver 34-21 0.618 5-5 22-11 23-3 11-18 9.5 12 (8-4) 15 (7-8) -
    6 Golden State 31-23 0.574 6-5 16-18 17-7 14-16 12.0 12 (7-5) 16 (10-6) -
    7 Utah 31-24 0.564 5-4 18-18 21-6 10-18 12.5 15 (7-8) 12 (7-5) -
    8 Houston 30-26 0.536 4-7 13-20 19-8 11-18 14.0 10 (6-4) 16 (8-8) -
    9 L.A. Lakers 26-29 0.473 5-5 14-19 17-11 9-18 17.5 12 (6-6) 15 (7-8)
    10 Portland 25-29 0.463 5-4 16-17 17-9 8-20 18.0 19 (10-9) 9 (5-4)
    11 Dallas 24-29 0.453 3-5 14-19 16-10 8-19 18.5 16 (10-6) 13 (5-8)
    12 Minnesota 20-31 0.392 3-7 11-19 13-13 7-18 21.5 17 (8-9) 14 (7-7)
    13 New Orleans 19-36 0.345 4-7 10-23 9-16 10-20 24.5 13 (8-5) 14 (8-6)
    14 Sacramento 19-36 0.345 3-5 8-24 14-13 5-23 24.5 15 (6-9) 12 (8-4)
    15 Phoenix 18-37 0.327 4-7 11-22 12-13 6-24 25.5 16 (9-7) 11 (7-4)

    TIEBREAKER BASIS:
    (-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
    (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
    (2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
    (3) Conference won-lost percentage
    (4) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
    (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
    (6) Net Points, all games
    x-Clinched Playoff Berth | o-Eliminated from Playoffs contention | e-Clinched Eastern Conference | w-Clinched Western Conference
    nw-Clinched Northwest Division | p-Clinched Pacific Conference | sw-Clinched Southwest Division | a-Clinched Atlantic Division
    c-Clinched Central Conference | se-Clinched Southeast Conference
    *-Games remaining vs.Teams Over/Under .500

    back to top
    Playoff Tie-Break Procedures

    Teams 1 to 4 in each conference are the three division winners and the team with the next best regular-season record, with the seeding of these four teams determined by regular-season record. The playoffs seedings of Teams 5 to 8 are based upon regular-season record. Ties are broken pursuant to the rules set forth below.

    Ties for playoff positions (including division winners) will be broken utilizing the criteria set forth in subparagraph a. below (in the case of ties involving two teams) and subparagraph b. below (in the case of ties involving more than two teams), and the guidelines set forth in subparagraph c. below.

    a. Two Teams Tied b. More Than Two Teams Tied
    (1) Better winning percentage in games against each other. (1) Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams.
    (2) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division). (2) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if all tied teams are in the same division).
    (3) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference. (3) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
    (4) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position). (4) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
    (5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in opposite conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position). (5) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).
    (6) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).

    c. Guidelines For Applying Tie-Break Criteria. The following guidelines shall be used when applying the above criteria to break ties for playoff positions:

    (1) (a) Since the three division winners are guaranteed a spot in the top four, ties to determine the division winners must be broken before any other ties.
    (b) When a tie must be broken to determine a division winner, the results of the tie-break shall be used to determine only the division winner and its playoff position, not any other playoff position(s).

    (2) If a tie involves more than two teams, the tie-break criteria in subparagraph b. shall be applied in the order set forth therein until the first to occur of the following:
    (a) Each of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tiebreak criterion (a “complete” breaking of the tie). In this circumstance, the team with the best winning percentage or point differential under the criterion will be awarded the best playoff position, the team with the next-best winning percentage or point differential will be awarded the next-best playoff position, and so on, and no further application of the tie-break criteria will be required.
    ~OR~
    (b) One or more (but not all) of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tie-break criterion (a “partial” breaking of the tie). In this circumstance: (x) any team(s) that performed better under the applicable criterion than any other team(s) will be awarded a higher playoff position than such other team(s); and (y) teams that had equivalent performance under the applicable criterion will remain tied, and such remaining tie(s) will be broken by applying, from the beginning, the criteria in subparagraph a.(1)-(6) above (for any remaining tie involving only two teams) or subparagraph b.(1)-(5) above (for any remaining tie involving more than two teams) and the guidelines set forth in this subparagraph c.

    (3) If application of the criteria in subparagraph a. or b. does not result in the breaking of a tie, the playoff positions of the tied teams will be determined by a random drawing.

    d. Home Court Advantage:For purposes of home court advantage, ties will be broken pursuant to the procedures used for breaking two-team ties for playoff position.

    back to top

    Games Remaining
    Eastern Conference Western Conference
    Atlanta ( 30 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 16
    Boston ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 12
    ROAD: 16
    Brooklyn ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 11
    ROAD: 16
    Charlotte ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 14
    Chicago ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 13
    ROAD: 15
    Cleveland ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 15
    ROAD: 13
    Detroit ( 26 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 10
    ROAD: 16
    Indiana ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 14
    Miami ( 30 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 15
    ROAD: 15
    Milwaukee ( 29 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 15
    New York ( 31 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 17
    Orlando ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 13
    ROAD: 15
    Philadelphia ( 30 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 12
    ROAD: 18
    Toronto ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 13
    ROAD: 14
    Washington ( 30 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 15
    ROAD: 15

    Dallas ( 29 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 15
    ROAD: 14
    Denver ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 15
    ROAD: 12
    Golden State ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 17
    ROAD: 11
    Houston ( 26 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 12
    L.A. Clippers ( 25 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 11
    L.A. Lakers ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 13
    ROAD: 14
    Memphis ( 29 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 12
    ROAD: 17
    Minnesota ( 31 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 15
    ROAD: 16
    New Orleans ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 16
    ROAD: 11
    Oklahoma City ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 14
    Phoenix ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 16
    ROAD: 11
    Portland ( 28 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 15
    ROAD: 13
    Sacramento ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 13
    San Antonio ( 26 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 17
    ROAD: 9
    Utah ( 27 games remaining ) :
    HOME: 14
    ROAD: 13

    Anything there pique your interest ?

    Tophatal ………….

  26. As someone who appreciates honest use of statistical information this piece is right up my alley Chris. To me it’s similar to all the NFL analyst who say x-team has the one of the top defenses in the league and consequently will go far in the playoffs…conveniently ignoring that the team played crummy offenses the majority of the season and that they stunk against better offensive units.

  27. Jed…

    The problem with the NFL schedule is that it’s not a large enough sample size as opposed to the other regular seasons we have in the NBA, NHL and MLB.

    On the football field, any team can win on any given Sunday.

    Not so much in a four-out-of-seven series.

  28. Chris

    It’s not solely about beating the Heat, but the can the Heat avoid being complacent ? Do you believe that they are capable of doing that ? Especially when it comes to the playoffs ?

    Statistics and polls have a way of misconstruing the truth .

    The only truth I abide by nowadays , is a stripper and her use of a pole while dancing ! If I’m paying for her to put on a show , then it had better be damn good ! Gonna make it rain up in that ##tch !

    Manti Teo runs like Oscar Pistorious without the blades and he’s even slower than the double amputee . His 50 yard dash at the NFL Combine would have made an 80 year old male geriatric feel proud . The only way that Teo would have been faster , were he asked to run down and sit on a 10″ (inch) phallic symbol .


    Fake girlfriends come and go
    , and this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Teo and he’s blowing it ( pardon the pun ! )

    Teo runs a slow 40 yd dash (phallic symbol was never in the picture to aid the player )

    If you thought defenses were confused by the read option, don’t expect things to get any less complicated.

    For the past couple of years, teams were shifting out of the 3-4 defense and going to the 4-3. This offseason, the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints switched to 3-4s. The Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles are considering the same switch. Only the Dallas Cowboys opted to go from 3-4 to 4-3.

    Based on Monday’s workouts of defensive linemen and linebackers, the future is going to be even more confusing. More players from this year’s draft are going to give defensive coordinators the chance to run even more hybrid schemes. Wade Phillips, a longtime defensive coordinator who is now with the Houston Texans, says the only difference between the two schemes is one more player having a hand on the ground in the 4-3 than the 3-4.

    This draft is loaded with incredible athletes who can play defensive end or pass-rushing outside linebacker. That is important when defenses are trying to match up against teams with read-option quarterbacks. At the moment, most defenses haven’t figured out the best way to stop great read-option quarterbacks.

    There is a contention by some strategists that it’s better to stop the read option with a 3-4 because two outside linebackers can better seal the edge. Thanks to the success of Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III, plenty of imagination is going into this offseason of defensive strategy.

    At least this draft is loaded with players who can give teams options.

    Here’s what we learned Monday:


    1. A slow 40-yard dash time will top any “catfishing” in deflating the value of a player.
    Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o came out of Saturday’s interview session with the national media and 20 team interviews at the combine with the impression that his fake girlfriend incident didn’t drop his first-round grade. Te’o, his agents and those who prepared him for the interviews had to feel good. But Monday deflated the entire group. Te’o ran a 4.82 40 and could have possibly dropped out of the first round. Teams need fast linebackers who can drop into coverage and chase down tight ends or fast running backs. Unless Te’o improves that 4.82, he might get some second-round grades. This doesn’t mean he can’t be an every-down player. Some might compare him to St. Louis Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis. In his first season, Laurinaitis established himself as an every-down linebacker, but he wasn’t drafted until the second round. He ran a 4.82 and went 35th. The good news for Te’o is that he has time to improve his 40. Still, you have to feel for him. The embarrassment of the “catfishing” girlfriend story, a bad game against Alabama and now a bad 40 time have made his past several months rough.

    ======================
    Click on link to read in full .
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    If his Wonderlic Test is less than 15 , he’ll be in for a real tough time .

    Teo (honesty and integrity) and Alec Ogletree (DUI’s) the perceived top two linebackers in this upcoming Draft have some real off the field issues . As for the NFL analysis by ESPN on Teo . Those a-holes on a clear day couldn’t tell you if the sky was blue or grey . Former Colts’ GM Bill Polian is a an @ss if he believes that Teo’s integrity doesn’t play a part in how coaches and executives will view the player . This being the very same GM who drafted Peyton Manning #1 overall for the Colts in the 1998 NFL Draft .

    Dropped these dimes

    It’s not just practice athleticism , it is also about character , character, character and integrity

    Striking out for glory , three strikes, you’ll never believe it

    Tophatal ……

  29. Al…

    I actually think the Heat will pick it up in the playoffs, as they’re doing right now. This team has now won 11 straight games and many and that includes a four-game roadie against the likes of OKC, Atlanta, Chicago and Philly who they each beat by ten points or more.

    Someone here is going to have to tell me why the Heat are going to lose a championship this year.

    Te’o showed up out of shape to the combines, Al. I know he had a rough month, much of it his doing but he had a chance to redeem himself and impress the scouts. I’m not too sure that happened. In fact, I’m pretty sure it didn’t.

  30. How did we miss this article? Well-written Chris. The Miami Heat more than anything else rely on their fast break ability in addition to having shooters like Ray Allen and Shane Battier who can put the ball in the net from anywhere.

    We think you’ve hit some solid points. Don’t get us wrong, the Heat should make a better effort to rebound the ball, but we agree that it doesn’t kill them that much in the long run.

    The Heat can score and if they’re hitting and taking good shots with a high percentage, then who cares about rebounding as much.

    It’s one thing to be last in rebounding and also be last in offense, but because the Heat get up and down the court at such high rates, the rebounding isn’t that much needed. Why? Because you can’t rebound a ball that has already went in. Good job with this.

  31. Thanks, BS.

    I guess when teams looking to repeat as champions have won 12 straight games and are 25-3 at home, we have to look hard to find flaws.

    I just think sometimes those flaws can be overblown.

  32. Pingback: Sports Chump » The Miami Heat shake things up (video)

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