Our special guest Han the Man led last week going 9-7 but it was close. KP went 8-8 and your boy went 8-7-1 with, just as I called it, the back door cover in the Thursday Night game giving me the tie.
Six underdogs won outright last week bringing our underdog wager tracker to -$23 dollars on the season. We’ll see how the dogs do this week. The only double-digit dog is Tampa Bay at New Orleans so Las Vegas must be reading.
Speaking of illegally gambling on football games, our guest picker this week is none other than J-Dub of Dubsism and he’s throwing down some major cash. Good thing his wife is the breadwinner of the family.
On to the games at hand!
SPORTSCHUMP’S HE’S OVER .500 YAY! PICKS
Denver at Kansas City (-3)
I’m going to start a trend here which includes not underestimating Kansas City. For starters, Alex Smith looked like Peyton Manning last week while Peyton Manning looked like Alex Smith. Will the real Hall of Famer please stand up? This should be an entertaining Thursday night game with the usual nut jobs at Arrowhead making that stadium unbearably loud. I’m going out on a limb here, which should be a pretty sturdy limb, and taking the Chiefs at home to cover in a game they desperately want and probably need in what should be a tight divisional race this year… for everyone except Oakland.
Houston at Carolina (-3)
Carolina’s not that good but they start out the season with a pretty easy schedule. Having to travel to Jax then home to Houston? When is this team going to play a real opponent? Houston looked pretty horrible against KC last week meanwhile anybody can look good against the Jags. I don’t think that’s misleading. The Panthers should win, cover and start their season off a very misleading 2-0.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5)
Earlier this week, still bitter about my team’s defeat, I Tweeted “Fortunately Buccaneers fans can’t be fined a million bucks for hoping the New Orleans Saints “kill the *&#$)* head” of Jameis Winston.” I don’t care if nobody got it – #BountyGate – I thought it was pretty funny. This one could get ugly. This isn’t the same old New Orleans team that ran through the league a couple of years ago but they’re good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that looked pitiful. Give me the Saints to cover because I’m still pissed.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-6)
On the underestimation kick, I think it might be time we stop counting out San Francisco. Any team that gives the ball to Carlos Hyde 26 times a night should fare pretty well, at least it looked that way in Week One. I’d look for a healthy dose of Hyde again against the Steelers. And while the Steelers didn’t look entirely horrible offensively against the Patriots last week, they still lost the game. While they should win this one, I’m going to take the six just because I liked what I saw out of the Niners and I don’t think Pittsburgh has put it all together yet.
Detroit at Minnesota (-3)
I’m taking Detroit here. In fact, I like them in an upset. I’m not at all sold on the Vikings. To be perfectly honest, I’m not sure why everyone’s so high on Teddy Bridgewater. Am I watching a different sport? In addition, anyone who drafted Adrian Peterson first overall in their fantasy draft, like the ice cream pimping, Jameson drinking commissioner of my league, has to be kicking themselves right now. I’ll take the Lions. Roar!
New England at Buffalo (pick)
This is the first but not first meeting between Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan. It’s just that now Ryan is wearing that very slimming Buffalo blue. The Bills surprised the shit out of everyone last week by beating the Colts, probably the only game where Vegas made any money. New England is still riding high from Rob Gronkowski’s opening night performance. He won’t be finding the end zone quite as regularly, however, against a Rex Ryan coached defense. Heck, Gronk is still trying to figure out how that magician got his cellphone into that football. This is a tough game to call which is amazing considering we’re talking about the Pats and the Bills. Buffalo should be loud but I think the Pats might still have something to prove. I’ll take the Pats here on the road because the inevitable Rex Ryan DeflateGate zinger won’t be enough to win his team the ballgame.
Arizona at Chicago (+1.5)
I watched a fair amount of that Chicago-Green Bay game last week. I liked what I saw from Chicago even though they ended up losing. Early on, they controlled plenty of clock with a healthy dose of Matt Forte. While Carson Palmer also looked good, if Chicago’s going to win any games this season, this has to be one of them. Give me the Bears and the points.
Tennessee at Cleveland (+1)
I’m taking the Titans here based on what I saw last week alone. They made Jameis Winston look like it was his very first game in the league. It was. Now they travel to Cleveland to face Johnny Manziel, another highly touted yet wet behind the ears quarterback. Let’s just say I picked up Tennessee’s defense in my fantasy league this week. I like the Titans to win on the road. Again.
San Diego at Cincinnati (-3)
This will probably be the best game of the weekend that nobody has any interest in watching. At Cincy minus three, it’s pretty much a wash, meaning the odds makers think these teams are equal. Damn! Why did I agree to do this? I don’t like Cincy but since they’re the home team and won by a larger margin last week than did Cincinnati albeit against a crappier opponent, I’ll take the Bengals. I might as well have flipped a coin.
St Louis at Washington (+3)
St Louis’ defense is really good so I don’t care who starts at quarterback for the Redskins, Kirk Cousins or RGIII, one of them is leaving concussed and RGIII already has a head start. When I first transcribed the betting line onto my notes, I had Washington minus three. When re-reading, I immediately knew that had to be wrong. In fact, St. Louis should win this game by more than three which is why I’m picking them to do so.
Atlanta at NY Giants (-2.5)
I’ll take the Giants and lay the points. I don’t think they’re quite as bone-headed as they were last week, losing in the final minutes to the Cowboys because of an ill-advised pass by Eli to stop the clock when they wanted it running. Nor do I think the Falcons were as good as they were last week against the Eagles. Given a fifth quarter, they probably would have lost that game. This will be their fifth quarter. Take the G-Men.
Baltimore at Oakland (+6)
Oakland definitely did not impress last week although rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper got his official welcoming to the league from PacMan Jones. I’m guessing Cooper would rather have received a gift basket than have his head bashed into his helmet as he lay there on the field defenseless. I get that this is a man’s game but the fact that a repeat offender was only fined $35,000, a night out at the local strip joint for Jones, further proves the inconsistency of Goodell’s soon-to-be-ending reign of terror. Maybe he didn’t watch that game like he didn’t watch the Pats on opening night. Back to the game at hand, I like the Ravens here but they don’t score much, even against the Raiders. I’m taking the Raiders and the points.
Miami at Jacksonville (+6)
The good news is that one of these teams has to win this game which means a plus one in the tie-breaker of my over/under pool. Oh wait, one team also has to lose. Never mind. I’ve been a Dolphin-Hater for a long time but they’re making gradual progressions. I’m flipping the script on my Dolphin-hating because I think this team might actually be decent this year. Give me the Fish on the road to cover.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-5)
The NFL schedule wasted no time getting to the meat of the NFC East rivalry. Dallas starts the season by playing the Giants and Eagles in back to back weeks? I like it. America’s team got lucky last week thanks to an Eli brain fart. Philly looked like crap early against the Falcons on Monday night. I’m going to ride the Eagles-don’t-cover train until they prove to me they’re as good as everyone thinks. I picked the Cowboys to win that division this year. I’m also picking them this week to cover the five.
Seattle at Green Bay (-3.5)
Seattle misses Dan Quinn more than they care to admit. I totally would have locked that guy up. That along with the Kam Chancellor holdout is wreaking havoc on a defense we’ve recently called the best in the league. The Packers have lost to Seattle the last three times they’ve played. All of those games were in Seattle. This one is not. I love Green Bay to cover for exactly that reason.
NY Jets at Indianapolis (-7)
The Jets surprised the hell out of me by winning last week. By the way, the AFC East is 4-0. The Colts surprised the hell out of me by losing last week. By the way, the AFC South is 1-3. The Colts are going through some issues but this could be the game they straighten those out. I’d rather watch a competitive Monday Night game but I don’t think this will be one. Give me the Colts to cover.
J-DUB’S “OUTHOUSE OR PENTHOUSE GAMBLING CAMPAIGN PICKS
Last week, we told you that fellow blogger J-Dub would play the lines for a full season, and see what he can do with $2,500 bankroll. Well, the first week’s results were promising; after tabulated wins and losses, and of course, paying t”the juice,” the man behind Dubsism finished ahead by $209. That brings the season total to $2,709, so let’s see what Week Two brings.
Denver at Kansas City (-3) (42) $25 on Kansas City, $75 over
Houston at Carolina (-3) (40.5) $100 on Houston
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-5.5) $50 on Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-11.5) (47) TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK, PART I: To bet this game, I have to believe that Jamies Winston can lead the Bucs to three scores of any sort, and that the Saints can score more than 30 points. I wouldn’t bet this with your money.
Detroit at Minnesota (-2.5) (43) $25 on Detroit
Arizona at Chicago (Pick) (45) $50 on Arizona
New England at Buffalo (Pick) (45) $20 on Buffalo, $50 under
San Diego at Cincinnati (-3) (45.5) $20 on Cincinnati
Tennessee at Cleveland (Pick) (41.5) $40 on Tennessee
Atlanta at NY Giants (-1) (51) DOG OF THE WEEK: There’s just no reason to bet his game, and Vegas isn’t giving me a reason to lay down my hard-earned Franklins. I wouldn’t bet this game with Donald Trump’s money.
St. Louis at Washington (+3.5) (41) LOCK OF THE WEEK: $300 on St. Louis
Miami at Jacksonville (+7) (41.5) $200 on Miami
Baltimore at Oakland (no line as of this writing) DISASTER OF THE YEAR AWARD: Vegas knows they can’t make a line big enough to stop a flood of Baltimore money coming in, so they puss out and do something I haven’t seen since the week after Bernard Pollard re-structured Tom Brady’s knee.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-5.5) (55) TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK, PART II: There’s way too much temptation to make the over-reaction bet on either team here. $50 over.
Seattle at Green Bay (-4) (48.5) $20 on Green Bay
NY Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5) (47) $20 on the NY Jets, $50 over
KP’S AS USUAL RIGHT ON TIME PICKS
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
The chatter on Peyton Manning is getting louder: he’s lost it, he’s done, he’s toast. I just don’t buy it. Sure, Manning may have lost a little arm strength, but the biggest problems are on Denver’s offensive line, as well as adjusting to a new offensive scheme with Gary Kubiak. Eli had similar challenges in New York. The Chiefs have plenty of talent and is difficult to beat at Arrowhead, but with the line at 3 1/2 points, I like Manning and the Broncos.
KP’s Pick: Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Marcus Mariota looked like the league’s MVP against the bumbling Bucs, but he’s still a rookie and will be facing one of the best corners in the game in Joe Haden. Cleveland’s starting QB is up in the air, and it all depends on whether Josh McCown is able to practice without any setbacks. If not, it’s Johnny Manziel – and that’s enough for me to take the Titans.
KP’s Pick: Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)
The Bucs were absolutely torched by Marcus Mariota and the Titans at home last week. Now, Tampa Bay travels to New Orleans to take on Drew Brees and the Saints. Is there really any analysis needed here? The answer to that question is NO. Saints cover.
KP’s Pick: New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+0.5)
The Bills surprised many by shutting down Andrew Luck and knocking off the Colts in Week 1. This week, Rex Ryan is foaming at the mouth, spewing out Patriots hate, his favorite pastime. One of his quotes complimented Rob Gronkowski, stating that in order to cover him, a player “would have to look like King Kong”. In practice this week, LeSean McCoy is dealing with a hamstring issue, which would hamper Buffalo’s offense. To put it simply, it’s hard to pick against Tom Brady, especially with a tossup line. Patriots win on the road.
KP’s Pick: New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Andre Ellington is out with an injury, leaving veteran RB Chris Johnson to anchor the running game. Carson Palmer was strong in his return and should have a big day against Chicago’s pass defense. John Fox will likely focus on running the ball with Matt Forte, taking on an Arizona defense that allowed just 54 yards on the ground in Week 1. Give me the Cards and we can all witness Jay Cutler playing 52 pickup.
KP’s Pick: Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
The first half of San Francisco’s Monday night game against the Vikings was ugly, but it eventually led to Carlos Hyde’s coming out party. The Vikings never got in sync offensively and some of the credit can go to the Niners’ defense. Just not all of it. The Steelers still won’t have Le’Veon Bell, but that didn’t slow down Pittsburgh’s offense in Week 1 against New England. With the home crowd backing them, I’ll take the over on Terrible Towels (in attendance) and I’ll also take the Steelers to cover at home.
KP’s Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+3.5)
The Rams managed six sacks in Week 1 against the Seahawks and now face a more inexperienced Washington O-line and QB Kirk Cousins. DeSean Jackson is out with a partially torn hamstring, while TE Jordan Reed was also hampered during practice with a hamstring issue, too. That’s two key weapons on offense and with the Rams’ aggressive defense on the other side, I like St. Louis to cover on the road.
KP’s Pick: St. Louis Rams
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
San Diego has struggled in the past when traveling east, but I don’t put too much stock into that. Instead, it’s more Cincinnati’s home crowd, as well as the Bengals’ overall balance, with Jeremy Hill leading the run game and A.J. Green catching key passes from Andy Dalton. The Bengals are also solid defensively. Give me the Bengals to cover at home, but barely.
KP’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Ryan Mallett gets the start for the Texans and typically, I would shy away from new starters. However, Carolina may be without Luke Kuechly – its defensive leader – due to a concussion. That adds pressure on Carolina’s offense, which is short on weapons and will have to face the monstrous J.J. Watt in the trenches. For these reasons, give me the Texans on the road.
KP’s Pick: Houston Texans
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5)
Dan Quinn won his coaching debut in Atlanta, but needed a little help from a missed Cody Parkey field goal late in the fourth. The Falcons blew a large lead in the second half and the team’s defense still has its holes, which could struggle against the likes of Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. The Giants lost a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday night and will be looking to bounce back. Rashad Jennings was told not to score and he let that get out into the media, but it doesn’t seem to be causing unrest in the locker room. That aside, this game smells like a shootout, but I’ll lean on Quinn’s defensive mind and the fact that the Falcons were likely worn down by Philly’s high-octane offense. The Giants are talented, but don’t move at that pace. Give me Atlanta by a late Matt Bryant field goal.
KP’s Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The Vikings were horrible in Week 1 and will be playing on short rest, after a late Monday night game on the west coast. Adrian Peterson wasn’t used enough in Week 1 and Teddy Bridgewater – who is typically very accurate – wasn’t. As much as I’d like to pick the Vikes at home, I’d feel more comfortable betting on a toddler to scarf down a bowl of lima beans in one sitting. Detroit tops a Minnesota team that is still searching for answers offensively.
KP’s Pick: Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (+7.5)
The Ravens did a great job shutting down Peyton Manning in Week 1, and now will face a weaker offense in Oakland. Terrell Suggs is out for the year, which will be a hit on Baltimore’s defense. For Oakland, QB Derek Carr has ability and he has rookie WR Amari Cooper, but it’s just too much to pick against the Ravens (Suggs or not), even on the road.
KP’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)
Blake Bortles is lashing out at fans for criticizing the team’s play calling. What about the play call execution? Miami is just too balanced and too talented to go betting against them, especially when facing a youthful Jacksonville team that has a lot to learn. Dolphins cover.
KP’s Pick: Miami Dolphins
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
The Eagles shook the cobwebs off and played very well in the second half of Week 1, only to lose to Atlanta after a Cody Parkey missed field goal in the fourth. This week, Philly gets a home game against rival Dallas, who will be without Dez Bryant. The Cowboys’ run game isn’t the same without DeMarco Murray and when you toss in the absence of Bryant, I like Philly’s high-octane offense to win its home opener by a touchdown.
KP’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Don’t call it a revenge game, that’s what the Packers say. What should be said is instead how the Seahawks allowed six sacks to the Rams last week. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game didn’t skip a beat without Jordy Nelson, while getting a boost from old friend James Jones. Revenge game? Yes, no matter what they say. Raucous Lambeau crowd? Double yes. Packers cover at home.
KP’s Pick: Green Bay Packers
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
People are frantically jumping off the Colts’ bandwagon after Andrew Luck was shut down in Buffalo last week. Shock and awe is rising with the Jets, too. But it’s one week… and while T.Y. Hilton is a question mark, the Colts still have plenty of other weapons if T.Y. can’t suit up. The Jets also were facing the Browns and Johnny Manziel last week. Yeah, give me the Colts to cruise at home on Monday night.
KP’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts