“I’m your Venus. I’m your fire. At your desire.”
Ladies and gentlemen, sports fans of all ages, shapes and sizes, this is the website where the good advice keeps on giving… so enjoy it while it lasts.
When Jimi Hendrix sang, let me stand next to your fire, he was talking about me reviewing football lines. When Van Halen dropped their underrated rock classic “On Fire,” they were referring to the prognosticating prowess of yours truly. When Jim Morrison suggested that someone light his fire, he could have easily used my football picks to ignite the flame.
Not only did I go an astounding five-for-five last week, I won one of my fantasy leagues, one of my weekly pick ‘em pools and cashed in on three different wagers, including an underdog three-teamer (Steelers, Dolphins, Cowboys).
Folks, I’m just saying, you might want to strike while the iron is hot. Here’s hoping it stays that way.
Here, my friends, are your latest standings. Read ‘em and weep:
Captain White Belt: 6
Dr. Laura: -4
Sauze Bauze: -8
Kid Sheraton: -18
Deacon Blues: -25
I’d like to say a few things before getting to this week’s picks.
First of all, if you have not yet entered and are reading these posts for the first time, IT IS NOT TOO LATE TO ENTER. That being said, this is your last week to do so. As the rules clearly state in Week One, you must participate at least ten weeks to qualify for the $100 grand prize.
Second, I noticed that a few people skipped out on last week. The season is still young. Don’t be discouraged by a negative score. Even if my lead seems unattainable, keep in mind that anything can happen. All it takes is for me to dump five games and for you to pick five games correctly and you’ve quickly made up a 30-point differential. So, keep turning them in.
Now, onto this week’s gambling lines:
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (Denver -1.5)
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -6.5)
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (Patriots -3.5)
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Tampa Bay -3)
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (Miami +2.5)
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -4.5)
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (Colts -7.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -6)
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (Vikings -3)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Jaguars -4.5)
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -2.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (Redskins -1.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Rams -10)
New York Giants at Altanta Falcons (Falcons -5.5)
FIVE POINTS – Now that we’ve got all that fire nonsense out of the way, let me start my picks by saying this is a difficult week… and not just for Mike Smith who is currently looking for work. That’s right, the Buccaneers former defensive coordinator who interviewed for both the Broncos and Chargers gigs only a few years ago opted to stay in Tampa alongside his buddy Dirk Koetter to make the Buccaneers’ defense progressively worse. Ownership saw to it that didn’t happen another Sunday. This weekend, the Bucs, a team in disarray will host the Cleveland Browns, another team in disarray. These two teams both started the season with great promise and in the last few weeks reminded us why they’re consistently among the worst teams in the league. The good news for their fan bases is that one of these two has to win this game. Actually, that’s not entirely true with the numbers of ties and overtime games we’ve seen so far this season. Either way, this is a must-win game for the Buccaneers unless they want more heads to roll. While it’s a gamble betting on a team that’s just lost a coach, these Bucs should have enough talent to beat the Brownies by three at home.
FOUR POINTS – Either winning or losing, I’ve picked the Dolphins right a bunch this year so let’s go to the well one more time, shall we? I loved them at home last week against the Bears, calling for the upset. Not so much this week against the Lions. I have this sneaky feeling the Lions go down to Miami and eke out a victory. The Dolphins won last week with Brock Osweiler. I just don’t see them doing that two weeks in a row. I know taking the Lions and laying points is generally not a good policy but this weekend, they’re the better team and most certainly the more rested and healthier one. I’m taking Detroit.
THREE POINTS – The Chargers are like Hansel, so hot right now. The Tennessee Titans are in the middle of a season they’d rather forget. Marcus Mariota is hurt and playing unwatchable football. Derrick Henry is wishing he was back in Alabama and still relevant. The Tennessee Titans play perhaps the most boring brand of football in the entire NFL. Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon is putting the Chargers on his back. They’re finally starting to live up to the hype and covering point spreads while doing so. Vegas is trying to catch up to this team which is always a good time to wager. I don’t feel seven is too much to lay when we’re talking about one team that loves to score and another team that’s proven unable to. Chargers cover the touchdown.
TWO POINTS – Speaking of teams in disarray, let’s talk about the Giants for a brief second. This week, the team owner told his star wide receiver Odell Beckham to talk less and play more. While that’s not necessarily the same as telling him to shut up and dribble, it shows that the Giants are an absolute mess. They’ll remain a mess this week as they travel to Atlanta on Monday night and face a Falcons team that’s looking to turn things around. I won’t lie. I fear a back door cover on the five-and-a-half, especially since the Falcons don’t have Devonte Freeman but they’ve won without Freeman before and they’ll do so again this Monday.
ONE POINT – Remember last season when the Jaguars won their division and made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game, only to lose to the New England Patriots by four? Yeah, they don’t either. This team can’t keep Leonard Fournitis healthy and can’t keep Blake Bortles from being Blake Bortles. This week, division rival Houston Texans come to town and the Jags for some reason are laying four-and-a-half. These days, the Jags couldn’t cover four-and-a-half against Wake Forest. Houston will give Jax all they want as these two teams struggle for first place in what’s clearly the worst division in football.
J-Dub’s Poetically Prophetic Week Seven Picks
Cowboys at Redskins PICK
The best poetry
Cowboys scalp Injuns
Bengals at Chiefs (-5.5)
Happy hunting ground
Chiefs stalking large jungle cats
Reid digests cat flesh
Vikings (-3) at Jets
Horned long boatmen
Get grounded at the airport
Somehow still cover
Bills at Colts (-7)
Sexy Rexy’s Ghost
Stomps into Circle City
Bills gore the Ponies
Browns at Buccaneers (-3)
My name is Humpherys
I bet on the second floor
Bucs abused again
KP’s Down-Over-Under NFL Week 7 Picks
FIVE – Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
The level of man crushes on Pat Mahomes are growing by the week and rightfully so. The Kansas City QB is sixth in the NFL in passing yards (1,865) and first in passing TD’s (18).
“Infatuation, of knowing who you are
You and I, You and I, You and I,
Arrow through my heart,
Catch a star.”
Following a heartbreaking loss to the Patriots, Mahomes and the Chiefs return home to face the Bengals, who are 20th in the league in passing defense, while also allowing 11 TD’s through the air. You can certainly get to the KC defense, but Mahomes and the Chiefs are nearly impossible to shut down.
Give me the Chiefs to cover at home.
FOUR – Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (+3)
The Jets are 7th in rushing offense, averaging 130.3 ypg and will face a Vikings defense that is 9th against the run. Minnesota is also fifth in total sacks, so the defensive pressure will be relentless against rookie QB Sam Darnold.
“Can’t you hear, can’t you hear the thunder
You better run, you better take cover.”
In the end, there’s just too much talent on Minnesota’s roster. Run, duck and cover, New York. Speaking of covering, that’s what the Vikings will do on the road.
THREE – Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
Derek Anderson is starting for the Bills this weekend. The same Derek Anderson that has four starts since 2011. This is also the same Derek Anderson who has a career 54.1% completion percentage. He also has 60 career passing TD’s and 60 interceptions. Derek Anderson is starting for the Bills, a team that has allowed 24 sacks, third most in the NFL.
Feel so washed up today
Haven’t really got much to say
Blood on the pillow on my bed
Explains the pain that’s in my head
That’s the feeling that is coming. Couple that with Indy at home and Andrew Luck getting his favorite target back in T.Y. Hilton. I’ll take the Colts to cover at home.
TWO – New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3.5)
It’s becoming a trend. The Patriots start slow, leaving too many prognosticators to say this is finally the end for Belichick and Brady. Every year, New England responds. After a monstrous win over the Chiefs, the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders. Josh Gordon is finally heavily involved in the offense, taking a ton of snaps and adding a major dimension. Julian Edelman is back, too. The Bears on the other end, have a strong defense and a continuously improving offense, plus home field advantage. Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson are both questionable (and banged up), which is a concern. In the end, it’s hard to ignore what the Patriots are doing right now. New England feels untouchable… again.
”Touching the untouchables but they don’t know
Respect the disrespectables, but in the end you know
You turn away, what can I say?”
Don’t turn away this time, because the Pats cover on the road in the Windy City.
ONE – New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
We saw what the Saints are capable of offensively a few weeks back, when Drew Brees set the NFL passing record. New Orleans crushed an underrated Redskins defense and now travel to Baltimore to face another strong D. The Ravens have the #2 passing defense, holding opponents to 188 ypg. Baltimore also has a league-high 26 sacks this season. On the other side, the Saints have the top run defense (71.4 ypg), but that’s likely due to teams being forced to play catchup and throw the ball. The Saints have also allowed just eight sacks, so something has to give here. Baltimore features the strong defense, yes, but New Orleans doesn’t just have the strong pass game, but also a two-headed monster in the backfield. Do we also really think that Joe Flacco can stick with Brees through four quarters? Toss in the New Orleans bye week and extra time to prepare, and it’ll be nowhere for the Ravens to hide.
“Don’t come in, I’ll only run and hide
Who can it be now?”
Who can it be now? Drew Brees, that’s who. The Saints and their many weapons win on the road.