A mid-season look at NFL over-unders

Now that we’ve reached the mid-way point of the NFL season, I thought it’d be wise to revisit our Over/Under contest and see whether any of us have been able to cash a winning ticket.

Thanks to the winless Colts and the surprising Bengals, some of us have… but there’s still plenty of season left to be played.

Here are the thirty-two NFL teams and their current records:

Green Bay 8-0

San Francisco 7-1

Baltimore, Cincinnati, Detroit, NY Giants 6-2

Houston, New Orleans, Pittsburgh 6-3

Atlanta, Buffalo, New England, NY Jets, Chicago 5-3

Dallas, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Tennessee 4-4

Cleveland, Denver, Washington, Philadelphia 3-5

Arizona, Carolina, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Seattle 2-6

Miami, St Louis 1-7

Indianapolis 0-9

While it’s still too early to determine our contest’s overall standings with only two teams officially over (or under) their projected wins total, I’ve sorted all thirty-two NFL teams into five groups: LOOKING UNDER, ALREADY UNDER, TOO EARLY TO TELL, LOOKING OVER and ALREADY OVER.

Let’s have a look, shall we?

In the LOOKING UNDER category, we have the Minnesota Vikings, the St Louis Rams, the Miami Dolphins, the Arizona Cardinals, the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Vikings have only two wins under their belt and still have Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans and Detroit left on their schedule.  As long as they drop four of their remaining eight, which they should, the Vikes number will finish under seven.

The Rams, well, they’re not good.  They’ve only won one game and their pre-season over/under was 7.5.  While it’s officially too early to collect points if you had St. Louis under, that bet is looking pretty safe.

Not a single one of us in the pool had the Dolphins winning more than eight games so how many points we each collect on Miami will depend on how many confidence points we wagered.  The Fish avoided an imperfect season by beating the Chiefs on Sunday, but it shouldn’t be long before we all cash in on the Dolphins’ ineptitude.

There were a few Kevin Kolb believers among us this pre-season, four to be exact.  Guess what.  You lose.  Kolb’s been average at best this season and his team’s been even worse.  Like the Vikings, the Cardinals have to play .500 football the rest of the way out to finish under 7.5.  Their next three games are on the road and they still have to play the Niners twice, so the Rams under is looking like a safe play for those of us who made it.

This pre-season, I once again made the mistake of drinking the Cowboys Kool-aid.  Damn you, Tony Romo!  I mean, how long until this team finally lives up to its potential?  It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen this year as they’re already 4-4.  They have to finish 5-3 the rest of the way just to push.  As I stated in the original contest post, pushes count as wins, so if Dallas finishes the season 9-7, we all win.  If not, the over/under selections will come into play.

So much for the Dream Team.  While all is not lost for the Philadelphia Eagles (or is it?), pre-season expectations were high.  Las Vegas set their projected win total at 10.5.  After losing Monday night to the Bears, they’ve now lost five games, meaning they’ll have to win out to finish over.  Most of us expect Philly to make a late push but running the table might be a little much to ask considering they still have to play the Giants, Pats, Jets and Cowboys.  Five of us had the Eagles over, none under, which means there are about to be some unhappy people ‘round these parts, none of them unhappier than Andy Reid.

The Jags are 2-6 and need five more wins to finish over their projected 6.5.  They still have Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Tennessee to go, which means the Fire Del Rio talk will once again build momentum as his team misses the playoffs for the fourth straight season.

In the ALREADY UNDER category, we have the Indianapolis Colts.  Dave W. has already cashed in nine points.  J-Dub and Zbignu also picked the Colts to finish under.  Meanwhile, Aero, Chappy, Harry Balzac, Big Bubba Z and Pistons Affiliated are currently kicking themselves for not consulting Peyton Manning’s neck specialist before submitting their picks.  Indy couldn’t finish over ten wins this season even if Andrew Luck was their quarterback.  That’s okay.  He might be soon.

In the LOOKING OVER category, we have the Texans, Lions, 49ers and Packers.

With Peyton Manning gone, most of us figured the Texans would run away with the AFC South.  So far so good for those of us that did.  They’re 6-2 and only need three more wins to finish over 8.5 for the season.

As we all know, the Green Bay Packers have yet to lose a game.  Somewhere on South Beach, the 1972 Dolphins are getting nervous.  The Pack’s over/under was 11.5.  At 8-0, they’re only four wins away from reaching that.  With a possessed Aaron Rodgers at the helm, let’s just say most of us think that will happen.

It can’t come as much of a surprise to anyone that the Lions are good, but this good this soon?  They’re 6-2 and about to kick in the door of over eight wins.  Stay tuned.  Five of us had Detroit over, three of us had them under.

The biggest surprise in the NFL this year has to be the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers.  Their number is 8 so for the six of us that picked them under (nobody had them over), Jim Harbaugh has a little something for us.

Only one team resides comfortably in the ALREADY OVER category:  The Cincinnati Bengals.  Forget about Cam Newton, can Andy Dalton please get a little Rookie of the Year love?  Carolina’s not going to make the playoffs, Cincinnati might.  The red-headed quarterback has led the surprising Bengals to a 6-2 start.  Han and Balzac wisely (or luckily) chose them over 5.5 wins but only risked one confidence point.  Seth, Dave W, Dub and Chap all had them under and risked big.  No soup for you!

Without going into further detail about the remaining teams in the league, it’s still TOO EARLY TO TELL whether the Jets, Saints, Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs, Titans, Giants, Pats, Bucs, Raiders, Broncos, Ravens, Steelers, Seahawks, Panthers, Browns and Bears will finish over or under, so stay tuned for another update and best of luck the rest of the way out.

Here are your current standings:

Dave W. – 9

Zbignu – 3

Balzac, J-Dub, Hanahan – 1

Dwin, Seth, Aer, Al, Chap, Drew, FtC, DHS, Yaz, SportsChump, Ronbets, Big Bubba Z, EG, PA – 0



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21 Replies to “A mid-season look at NFL over-unders”

  1. Dub…

    Look at the bright side.

    At least you’ve written the best piece I’ve seen on the PSU situation.

    Hopefully, the process was somewhat cleansing for you.

    And at this point, Bryant Gumbel should be leaving you alone.

  2. Aer…

    I generally lay off over/unders because I hate to wait an entire season to collect my money. I much prefer betting on particular games I have a strong feel for.

    But don’t feel bad. It looks like I’m going to lose my nine (Dallas over) and eight (San Fran under) pointers.

  3. As the late Jimmy V said after giving the director an Italian expletive, “Never give up”.

  4. Chris

    So Beaver Stadium pardon the pun ! it now becomes an adjunct diocese of the US Roman Catholic Church ? Well that’s good to know .

    Matt Millen is a pompous a-hole ! He’s pontificating about the kids but he has yet to step down from his position as a board member of Jerry Sandusky’s charitable organization (he set up) that the former PSU assistant coach defensive coordinator used to procure his victims . Fu_ck that sh_t ! And people are out there looking to defend Joe Pa’ . Dumb a@@ PSU students …….s_#t for brains !

    How’s this for a snippet of information ? 16 of the Buccaneers’ last 19 home games have been blacked out ? The only sold out game on the remainder of their schedule thus far is against Romo and the Cowboys .

    Albert Haynesworth ? A really good fit on that Bucs’ defense …….. about as great as Herman Cain’s member may well have been in Sharon Bialek’s lady parts , allegedly ! What is is that Dominik and Morris are seeing in Haynesworth’s play this season that Belichick simply said ….” screw that ” ? .

    So the Marlins are making a play for the Mets’ Jose Reyes ? Since when did that organization start to spend money ? New stadium or not they’re not going to be a contender in NL East next season .

    tophatal ………….

  5. Al…

    Do you think the Bucs would sell out a game if Tim Tebow were coming into town?

    I’m looking forward to seeing what Haynesworth can do in a Bucs uniform. As you know, they initially wanted him his free agent year.

    The good thing about that is even the people in the cheap seats will be able to see him play.

    And the Marlins have to do something, Al. They have a brand new stadium and brand new unis. What, are they gonna field a bunch of minor leaguers? And yes, how they’re getting all that money is a mystery to all of us.

  6. With Week Ten in the NFL nearly complete, two more teams cashed in a ticket.

    With their loss at home to the Arizona Cardinals, there is no way that the Eagles can finish the season OVER 10.5 wins. They’re currently 3-6.

    With their victory over the Giants, there is no way that the 49ers can finish UNDER.

    Ironically, nobody gained points this week but a few of us lost the opportunity to do so.

    Dave W., Eddie Griffin, Big Bubba Z, FtC and Drew all had Philly OVER. Shame, shame, boys!

    J-Dub, DieHardSports, Yaz, Ronbets, Eddie Griffin and yours truly had the Niners UNDER. But who in their right mind, didn’t?

    The big loser this week, Eddie Griffin, not only for losing the most potential points but for not calling his boy.

    Until next week, gentlemen.

  7. Chris

    Anything that puts butts into the seats at Raymond James Stadium is seen as a positive by the front office because it’s not happening on the field at the moment .

    Freeman completes less than 50% of his passes during the game and the Bucs’ defense was nowhere to be seen as Arian Foster had a field day for the Texans !

    So much for the Bills’ season , that pounding at the hands of the Cowboys pretty much summed how over-rated they are .

    I see LBJ supposedly got himself embroiled in a controversy in back in Cleveland ? When will he learn he’s not welcomed there no matter how altruistic his motives are .

    I see that Marquez Pacquiao fight went well ? Pro Marquez fans said to be disgusted at the result went off the chain and started to pelt the ring with any object they could find post-fight . And so much for that UFC /MMA title fight . If those two , Dos Santos and (former title holder) Cain Velaquez are the best that the division now has to offer then I can’t wait to see what will happen should Richard Simmons choose to take up the sport .

    What the Marlins now have is a gullible commission in Miami who will kiss owner Loria’s rear end at the drop of a hat . There’s no one banging down the doors as of yet by way of commercial sponsorship. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Machado clan suddenly drops some major loot there ! I mean where else can they show that they have now become so respectable within the locale ?

    tophatal …….

  8. Al…

    Why would anyone in their right mind want to go see the Texans embarrass the Buccaneers in their own house? I live fifteen miles away and I could almost hear the boos from my condo.

    I think most of us thought the Cowboys were underachieving and that the Bills would eventually be grounded, so yesterday’s outcome comes as no surprise… even though I picked that game wrong, he he.

    It’ll be interesting to see what that Marlins roster looks like by Opening Day. Do you think Ozzie is courting these free agents as well or is he just letting ownership make it rain?

  9. I have no idea what they do with Peyton. I’m not a doctor, but all those surgeries can’t be good… I’ll say no he doesn’t retire a Colt…

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