SportsChump’s NFL Picks Against the World – Week Six

The underdogs are faring pretty well this season and I’m not just talking about the Cubs.  Through Week Five, had I been betting on the dogs to win every game outright, I’d actually be winning money.

The same cannot be said for this particular underdog.

That’s right, Week Five was yet another subpar week for your boy.  Meanwhile, the NASCAR expert we brought in to pick against us, who had never gambled using a football point spread in her life, went 11-3.

I’m at a loss for words.

Once again, the purpose of this exercise, other than to frustrate the living hell out of me, is to prove that we, or at least I, know nothing about predicting football games.

So far it’s working.

Our celebrity prognosticator this week is the man who can successfully debate both sides of an argument which is why so many of the presidential hopefuls have him on speed dial.  The only argument he can’t make, however, is that I’m good at picking football games.  We proudly welcome back Big Poppa who makes his long-awaited return and hopefully will not kick the Chump when he’s down.

 

SPORTSCHUMP’S RESISTANCE IS FUTILITY PICKS

 

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3.5)

So much for me riding the hot team.  Atlanta won last week but failed to cover the point spread against the impossible to figure out Washington Redskins.  Now they travel to the town that Brad Pitt (re)built to take on a pretty bad Saints team.  I’d suggest that Drew Brees retire if he didn’t insist on playing until he’s fifty, which has to be soon, right?  The Saints are still recovering from the loss of Jimmy Graham meanwhile Graham’s new team, the Seahawks, fail to realize he’s even on their roster.  While I usually take home dogs and the points in a divisional rivalry (that didn’t work last week, see Denver at Oakland), I think Atlanta is easily three-and-a-half points better than the Saints.  Need I remind you that the Buccaneers won in New Orleans earlier this season?  Falcons cover.

 

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4)

The Browns shocked the shit out of everyone, or at least me, by going into Baltimore and beating the Ravens last week.  Ladies and gentlemen, meet the Baltimore Ravens, aka the New Browns.  Now Cleveland is home to Peyton Manning and getting four.  I’m still not buying it though.  Josh McCown completing touchdown passes off his back foot has to end eventually, doesn’t it?  It does this week.  I’m going with Denver.

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+3)

I was really looking forward to seeing what this talented Buffalo team could do under Rex Ryan but at this point they’re just too banged up.  LeSean McCoy has been upgraded to doubtful and it’s still mums the word on starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor.  At full strength, I might give the Bills a shot against undefeated Cincinnati but I think this week, the Bengals continue to climb up everybody’s power rankings.  Against my instincts, I’ll take the Bengals to cover the three on the road considering they just came back from 17 in the fourth against Seattle.

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

I’ve underestimated Minnesota for too long this season.  Home, off a bye week, against a struggling Kansas City team who just lost Jamaal Charles for the season, I’m looking for the Vikes to pound the ball and cover.

 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (pick)

Wow, what a doozy of a game here?  Jacksonville returns home after traveling all the way to Tampa only to lose to the Buccaneers.  They return home with a banged up Blake Bortles.  Houston, off a bye week, took a good long look at whom, and how bad, they really are.  Coach O’Brien needs to give this team one last push before looking to take that South Carolina job.  I’ll take the Texans.

 

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3)

Do you think if we just implode the Texans-Jags and Bears-Lions games that anyone would notice?  Perhaps the Bears fans I’ve talked to are right.  Maybe, just maybe, after edging out both the Raiders and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks by a combined total of three points, the Bears aren’t who we thought they were.  I still like the Lions to get off the snide though.  The over/under in this game is 43.5 which I like over.  I’m looking at a high scoring contest with the Lions winning on the final possession.  Otherwise, the unemployment rate in Detroit will go up by one coach.

 

Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-6)

I’m not quite sure why the Jets are laying six here.  They’re coming off a London bye (get used to those words, NFL fans) but Washington has been playing well.  I’d even consider taking the ‘Skins money line if I had money to burn.  I’ll take the six because clearly because I don’t know what I’m talking about.

 

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

Here’s another surprising line.  Why is Pittsburgh, after a big win on Monday night, a home dog to Arizona?  Don’t let the records fool you.  While ‘Zona may be 4-1, they’ve beaten shitty teams.  The Steelers will be the best team they’ve faced this season.   While Pittsburgh bides their time waiting for Big Ben to get back, Monday night’s victory proved they’re still able to compete.  I’ll take the three.

 

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Please tell me I don’t have to pick this game.  While Miami is in total disarray, this will be Dan Campbell’s debut as head coach in the NFL.  He’s been with the team for years so at least he’s used to losing.  We’re about to find out if he’s ready for prime time.  He’s not.  I’m taking the home team and laying the points.

 

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

I made the pre-season mistake of choosing Seattle to win over 11 games.  At 2-3, I don’t think that’s going to happen unless they get their shit together ASAP.  They just coughed up a 17-point, 4^th quarter lead to Cincy last week.  That leads me to believe that this team is royally pissed off.  That also leads me to believe they cover the touchdown against the Panthers.  On a side note, this will be the first time in twelve months that two guys named Cam, who spell their name differently, square off against the other in the NFL.  Just thought you might like to know that.  ‘Hawks cover at home.

 

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-10)

I fear a back door cover here.  San Diego was elated to have Antonio Gates back from his four-game suspension last week.  He had nine catches for 92 yards on Monday night.  Expect more of the same as they’ll do their best to try to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, although I still expect another high-scoring contest.  So does Vegas who lists this over/under at 50.5.  Green Bay covered last week but Philip Rivers can put up enough to keep this one relatively close.

 

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)

This is how bad the 49ers are.  The Ravens can’t beat a pick-up team comprised of a retired Ray Lewis and an injured Terrell Suggs and they’re still favored in San Francisco.  I’m taking San Fran because the Ravens are just that bad.

 

New England Patriots at Indianapolis (+8)

Remember when this game used to mean something every year?  Back when Peyton Manning didn’t have a triple-fused neck, Tom Brady wasn’t deflating footballs (allegedly) and a 14-year old Andrew Luck’s neck beard was only starting to grow in.  I’m guessing, by the eight point line, that Luck won’t be playing.  This rivalry is still too stout for the Pats to just run away with things.  I’ll take the eight and hope for the best.

 

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)

I have a bad feeling about this game, enough to sit Eli Manning as my starting fantasy quarterback.  This line might be slightly inflated because the Eagles finally won a big game but they can ill afford to drop any further behind the Giants in this division.  I think the G-Men are the better team but again, this is an early-season must win for Philly.  Even though the G-Men generally get the better end of the Eagles, I’ll take Philly in this early-season matchup even though I still think the Giants end up winning that division.

 

BIG POPPA’S ALWAYS RIGHT UNTIL HE’S WRONG… AND THEN HE’S STILL RIGHT PICKS

 

Greetings!  Always a pleasure to do picks against the spread for the SportsChump.  As a Florida Gator fan, it’s been a rough week with the suspension of our Quarterback, Will Grier and the abrupt resignation of our favorite Head Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier, at South Carolina.  Since I’ve largely tuned out college football this week, I got to spend a bit more time thinking about my picks so here goes.  I am using the lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

 

Thursday

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

The 5-0 Falcons travel to New Orleans to take on the 1-4 Saints.  Drew Brees is not the Drew Brees of old and while I’ve never had less faith in a 5-0 squad, new Head Coach Dan Quinn has the Falcons firing on all cylinders.  The only question mark coming into this game is the health of Julio Jones’ hamstring but with Leonard Hankerson playing well and Devonta Freeman looking like the best running back in the NFL over the last few weeks, the Falcons should cruise to victory.

My pick: Falcons

 

Sunday

Denver Broncos (-4) at Cleveland Browns

Peyton Manning is clearly not the Peyton Manning of old but he probably doesn’t have to be vintage Peyton to go on the road and dominate the hapless Browns.  The Cleveland offensive line will struggle in pass protection against the Denver defensive line and the Browns rushing attack has been anemic this season with Isiah Crowell rushing for a paltry 3.9 years per carry and Duke Johnson only tallying 3.0 yards per carry.

My pick: Broncos

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills

The most surprising team this season has been the Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) and undoubtedly, the biggest surprise through the first third of the season has been the play of Andy Dalton.   If I had told you before the season started that after five weeks, Dalton would rank second in the NFL in passing yards, passing yards per attempt and total QBR as well as third in touchdowns, third in passer rating and fifth in yards per game, you would have told me I was crazy.  Buffalo on the other hand is just trying to stay afloat at 3-2 and coming off a less than impressive 14-13 victory over the Tennessee Titans.  Tyrod Taylor is not at 100% coming into this game so that certainly hurts the Bills chances.

My pick: Bengals

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Alex Smith has been sacked a league leading 22 times this season.  That was with the threat of a decent running game with Jamaal Charles.  With Charles out with a torn ACL, the Chiefs running game will suffer and I predict lots of defensive line parties in the Chiefs backfield this Sunday.

My pick: Vikings

 

Houston Texans (OFF) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Nobody outside of Houston and Jacksonville cares much about this game.  The Texans offense has no identity and no stability at quarterback while the Jags are, well, the Jags.  The only reason for tuning into this game is to watch J.J. Watt terrorize Blake Bortles for three hours.

My pick: Texans

 

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3)

This Bears-Lions rivalry is the longest-running annual series in the NFL as both teams have met at least once a season since 1930, when the Lions were the Portsmouth Spartans based out of Portsmouth, Ohio. The teams have met a total of 170 times with Chicago leading the all-time series, 96-69-5.  However, the Lions have won the last four meetings and even with Matthew Stafford throwing more picks than Charles Oakley back in the day, the Lions should extend that streak to five games with a victory over the listless and inconsistent Bears.  GO CUBS!

My pick: Lions

 

Washington ________ at New York Jets (-5)

The 2-3 Washington NFL football team travel up I-95 to MetLife Stadium to take on the somewhat surprising 3-2 New York Jets.  The Jets are coming off a bye week and should be rested (although the Jets are 1-5 coming off a bye week in the last six seasons) while the Washington squad is coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss against Atlanta last week.  Ryan Fitzpatrick has been unspectacular, yet steady (seven touchdowns, six interceptions) but the team has relied on Chris Ivory (105 rushing yards per game) to shoulder the load.  It will be important to see how Kirk Cousins rebounds after throwing a pick six in overtime last week in that heartbreaking loss to the Falcons.

My pick: Jets

 

Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday marks the second week in a row that the Cardinals will be playing a Sunday matchup against an Eastern Time Zone team that is coming off a Monday night game on the West Coast. Last week Arizona crushed the Lions, 42-17 and I suspect the Cards will not win in as dominant a fashion this week, but will win nonetheless.  Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington have been a devastating 1-2 punch this season (when both are healthy) and Carson Palmer has looked solid with 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions.  The real story of the Cardinals season thus far has been the resurgence of Larry Fitzgerald back to All-Pro status and playing like someone who has discovered the fountain of youth.  A largely one-dimensional Pittsburgh squad (Mike Vick should not expect a Christmas card from Antonio Brown this year) should be no match for the might Cardinals.

My pick: Cardinals

 

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

New coach, same old Dolphins.  Dan Campbell takes over this week for the departed Joe “Mr. Excitement” Philbin as the Head Fin but we shouldn’t expect too much too soon from these Dolphins.  Ryan Tannehill seems to be regressing and Ndamukong Suh has been a Haynesworthian level bust so far for Miami.  No sacks, no quarterback pressures, no disruptive plays and only 10 tackles so far this season for Suh.  The outcome of this game will be based more on the Dolphins ineptitude than anything Tennessee does right.

My pick: Titans

 

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

The good news for the Panthers is that they are 4-0 entering Sunday’s contest against the visiting Seahawks.  The bad news is those four wins came against teams that have a combined record of 5-15.  The good news is that the Panthers are 9-1 in their last 10 games.  The bad news is that one loss came at the hands of the Seahawks.  The god news is that Cam Newton has been solid this season leading the Panthers to 27 points per game while throwing for seven touchdowns to only two interceptions.  The bad news is Cam has to lead his team west to Century Bank Field, the loudest venue in sports and the Seahawks get Marshawn Lynch back this week.

My pick: Seahawks

 

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)

Losing a heartbreaker to the Steelers, at home, on a Monday night, in front of a crowd that seemed very pro-Pittsburgh is tough.  Following up a short week to head to Green Bay and Lambeau Field to take on the 5-0 Packers is daunting to say the least.  The Packers are 9.5 point favorites and are 5-0 ATS this season, justifying the line for the game.  The Packers are 6-0 SU and ATS against the Chargers in their last six games.  Expect that trend to continue.

My pick: Packers

 

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

When these teams faced off in Super Bowl XLVII, we expected the Harbaugh Bowl to be one of those games that would always pack excitement, passion and a lot of physicality.  Now Jim Harbaugh is off to Michigan and the 49ers are being coached by Jim Tomsula (who I swear resembles Carl Brutananadilewski from Aqua Teen Hunger Force) and John Harbaugh’s Ravens barely resemble those Super Bowl teams (no Ray Lewis, no Ed Reed, no Terrell Suggs).  Both teams come into the game at 1-4 and in last place in their respective divisions.  Flacco should outplay Kaepernick and the Ravens should win by a field goal.

My pick: Ravens

 

New England Patriots (-7) at Indianapolis Colts

The best team with the best coach and best quarterback take on a team with a coach that clearly looks like he is losing his team and has lost the support of ownership and management with a quarterback who has missed the last two games with a bad shoulder.  Even if revenge wasn’t a factor I’d pick the Pats but knowing just how ruthless Brady and Belichick are, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a beat down of epic proportions.

My pick: Patriots

 

Monday

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)

At 3-2, the Giants sit atop the NFC East, a game up on the 2-3 Eagles.  The Eagles are the home favorite but I expect Odell Beckham Jr. to get the best of his matchup with Byron Maxwell this week, just like Julio Jones did against Maxwell in the first game of the season.  Monday night road games can be tough but the quick trip down I 95 to the Linc is not a daunting trip and like Deion Sanders, I BELIEVE IN ELI (or at least I believe in him more than Sam “check down” Bradford.

My pick: Giants

 

KP’S I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHY I ASK THESE GUYS TO STILL PICK WITH ME PICKS

 

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3.5)

Julio Jones (toe/hamstring injuries) is apparently playing, but could see fewer snaps than usual.  He will face a New Orleans defense that is ranked 23rd against the pass and has allowed 9 TD’s on the year.  The Saints are a pass-heavy offense and will face Atlanta’s defense that is ranked 29th against the pass.  Hello, shootout?  Atlanta is first against the run, but these numbers are likely skewed by opponents trying to play catch-up.  New Orleans does have home field advantage, is desperate for a win and has Drew Brees, who has played well against the Falcons in the past.  But overall, the game funnels back to the health of Julio Jones and my gut says he plays well and the Falcons cover.

KP’s Pick: Atlanta Falcons

 

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

The Steelers snuck out of San Diego with a key win and while Mike Vick made a few key big plays, he still was shaky and wild with his throws.  The Chargers missed some key opportunities to pick off balls, while the Steelers failed to get consistent involvement from Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  The difference here is that the Cardinals will take advantage of Vick’s mistakes.  Arizona has 13 takeaways, an NFL-high 11 INT’s and a +6 turnover differential this.  Pittsburgh’s home crowd will be loud, but Vick is too mistake-happy to keep up with the high-flying Cardinals.  Arizona covers on the road.

KP’s Pick: Arizona Cardinals

 

Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-5.5)

Perhaps after last week’s near-miss against Atlanta, critics can point some praise in the direction of the Redskins.  The team is 2-3 and Kirk Cousins continues to be a wild card, but the play of Washington’s defense – led by Ryan Kerrigan in the trenches and Bashaud Breeland in the secondary – cannot be ignored.  The Jets are coming off a bye and have home field, but Ryan Fitzpatrick should be considered as much of a wild card as Cousins.  Both teams like to run and both are ranked in the top six in overall defense.  All in all, it looks like it will be a low-scoring, defensive affair with sloppy play and plenty of turnovers.  Considering that and the line, give me the Redskins and the points.

KP’s Pick: Washington Redskins

 

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The Lions benched Matthew Stafford last week, but he’s still the starter.  Detroit has had problems protecting its franchise QB, but it should be noted that the Bears defense has just 9 sacks in five games and has allowed 11 passing TD’s (second most in the league).  Toss in the fact that Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are again questionable heading into the weekend, which means the Bears could again be shorthanded on offense.  This smells like victory for the Lions, or perhaps that’s the scent of the dumpster fire that this game could be?  Give me Detroit anyway… and some nose plugs.

KP’s Pick: Detroit Lions

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)

Rex Ryan told Sirius XM radio that he’s not ruling Tyrod Taylor out just yet, but we should perhaps consider that to be a strategy and preparation tactic.  Taylor is questionable and with a knee injury, he’s unlikely to go considering his game.  That leaves E.J. Manuel to start and with LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams also battling injuries, the Bills are extremely shorthanded offensively. The injury report is enough to look towards a Bengals team that capped off a huge late-game comeback versus Seattle last week.  Toss on a ginger wig and hop on that Cincy bandwagon, because the ‘Bungles’ are no more!

KP’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)

The Jags gave up 38 points to the Bucs last week and now get a Texans team that will be starting Brian Hoyer.  Over the last few weeks, Hoyer has proven that he has the ability to spark the offense.  Meanwhile, last week, J.J. Watt was double teamed and stymied but faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 7th most sacks.  Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense will put up a good fight, but I like the Texans to pick up a much-needed road victory.  Houston by a FG.

KP’s Pick: Houston Texans

 

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4.5)

There are only so many times that the Browns will manage Gary Barnidge butt catches and comeback victories.  Can we really expect a second straight week of that, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked fifth against the pass and fifth against the run?  Sure, the Broncos have struggled a bit offensively, but this is still Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Co.  Denver covers.

KP’s Pick: Denver Broncos

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles for the season and will now rely on Charcandrick West and Knile Davis to carry its rushing attack.  K.C. certainly was deflated after Charles went down, allowing the Bears to complete a comeback.  Now, the Chiefs face a Minnesota team that is playing at home and is coming off a bye.  The Vikings are anchored by Adrian Peterson and its second-ranked rushing offense.  Minnesota will likely be aggressive on defense, attacking a Kansas City offensive line that has given up an NFL-high 22 sacks on the season.  With the uncertainty of Kansas City’s running game coupled with Minnesota’s fresh legs, I’ll take the Vikes to cover at home.

KP’s Pick: Minnesota Vikings

 

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Miami is back on the field after firing its coach and getting a week off to regroup.  But despite a fresh mindset and what appears to be a weak opponent, this will be no cakewalk for the Dolphins.  Miami is 31st in rushing offense, managing just 69.2 ypg on the ground.  Lamar Miller has been ineffective.  On the other side, Tennessee has the league’s top pass defense, allowing just 166.5 ypg.  Toss in the home field advantage plus a surprisingly effective Marcus Mariota, and I’ll take Tennessee.

KP’s Pick: Tennessee Titans

 

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

The Panthers are off a bye and must face Seattle in front of the 12th man.  At home, the Seahawks have been suffocating on defense and will have Marshawn Lynch back in the lineup, too.  With that being said, can we really trust this year’s Seattle team, after a blown lead to the Bengals and one officiating blunder from losing at home to the winless Lions?  The Panthers do not have a potent offense and will need Cam Newton to make some plays with his feet.  But toss in the additional week for rest and preparation and Carolina has what it takes to keep this at a touchdown or less.

KP’s Pick: Carolina Panthers

 

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)

The Chargers have struggled to protect Philip Rivers in the pocket and defensively, have failed to make big plays – and that includes last week against Mike Vick, who had plenty of poor throws.  Rivers and the offense did get a boost with the return of Antonio Gates last week, but traveling to Green Bay to take on Aaron Rodgers, well… the Chargers will need to be clicking on all cylinders.  Considering the Packers are second in sacks and have just four giveaways, this seems unlikely.  Pack win big.

KP’s Pick: Green Bay Packers

 

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)

The Ravens have really struggled with injuries, but appear likely to get Steve Smith back.  However, Justin Forsett is questionable with an ankle injury.  Still, the addition of Smith should add balance to the offense.  But the key stat here is in the trenches, where the Ravens are 6th in the league in sacks (15) and the Niners are fourth in sacks allowed (16).  The Ravens are floundering and need this win badly and therefore, I’ll take Baltimore to cover on the road.

KP’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens

 

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)

By now, you’re used to a handful of statistics being tied to every pick I make.  When Sunday night arrives, the Pats will have informed the world that this is just another game and not about anything from the offseason – and that’s a verbal pile of B.S. so large that a room full of politicians couldn’t trump it.  This game is all about “Deflategate revenge”, considering the Colts started as the whistleblower.  Fine, you want a stat?  Here are two for good measure: 1) Tom Brady – 11 TD, 0 INT and 2) Andrew Luck – Questionable to play, with 7 INT’s on the season.  Give me the Pats in a revenge-filled rout.

KP’s Pick: New England Patriots

 

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

It’s a Monday night battle with early-season NFL East implications.  The Eagles have had a major edge in recent years of this rivalry, but the Giants are playing better in 2015.  However, Odell Beckham Jr. is questionable with a salsa-dancing-hamstring injury.  Otherwise, the numbers are fairly evenly matched: Each team is in the top ten in run defense and the bottom ten in pass defense.  The stats are similar in both passing and rushing offense, too.  With OBJ a little banged up and Philly playing at home with a recent rivalry edge, I’ll take the Eagles to cover in front of a raucous Monday night crowd.

KP’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Bye Week: Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers