SportsChump’s 14th Annual Over/Under Contest

Before we jump into this year’s contest, let’s briefly travel back in time to last year’s NFL Playoffs. 

Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.  Welcome to your Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and so many other NFL teams that fell dramatically short of their goal.

While the Dallas Cowboys won their division, which in retrospect wasn’t all that difficult against the Giants, Commanders and late-fading Eagles, the Cowboys once failed to show up in the post-season, losing in embarrassing fashion, at home, allowing 48 points to the Green Bay Packers.  Not to be outdone, the Philadelphia Eagles traveled to Tampa Bay and said hold my beer.  The underachieving birds, who made the Super Bowl two years ago, were sent back to Philly after a similarly lackluster one-and-done postseason performance.  So much for the NFC East being among the best divisions in football.  And the Bills, well, how many wide right jokes can we make before the entire city develops a twitch?  And the Jaguars… oof!

But enough mediocrity.  Here’s a more pleasant reminder that we hosted a few contests here at SportsChump Manor that coincided with the NFL season: Our long-heralded, annual over/under contest and our weekly pick ‘em.

Our weekly pick ‘em, which invites one faithful reader to pick five games against the spread versus me and Kevin Paul at The Wife Hates Sports, is a grueling, season-long contest, which I basically led from Week Four without looking back.  In fact, I was on such a heater that I went an astonishing 20-5 ATS to finish the season.  Here’s to keeping that up in 2024.  Kevin is currently working on his conciliatory speech singing my praises but until then, here are the standings over the last three seasons.  I would like to thank everyone who participated.  Start studying now as we plan to do it again beginning Week One.

We also held our 13^th annual over/under contest where I asked readers to choose the ten teams, in order of confidence, they think will finish over or under their projected win total for the season.  This contest is revealing and always fun to look back at not only how wrong we were, but which teams exceeded, or underwhelmed, their expectations. 

Before we get to your picks, both this year and last, let’s start with the good, shall we? 

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out which NFL team most surpassed their projections.  That would be your Houston Texans who, behind CJ Stroud, reminded everyone that they, and not the Jacksonville Jaguars, will be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC South for years to come.  They surprised everyone by winning ten games after Las Vegas set their over/under at 6 ½.  The Rams were equally as surprising, also finishing with ten wins when Vegas thought they’d be sub-par.  Honorable mention teams that won 2 ½ games over their projected win total were the Detroit Lions, the Indianapolis Colts, the Dallas Cowboys, the Baltimore Ravens and our beloved Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Now, let’s get to the bad before we get to the winner of the over/under contest.  Discussing this is fun not only because these teams were projected to be bad, but they finished even worse.  There can only be one Super Bowl champion but so many other teams which disappoint. 

It should come as no surprise that the dishonor of being called 2023’s most disappointing team goes to the Carolina Panthers.  Not only was their win total projected at a sub-.500 7 ½ wins, but Carolina came nowhere close to that number.  Behind diminutive rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the Panthers could only muster two wins.  They tied with the New England Patriots for the fewest points scored: 236. That’s under two touchdowns per game for those of you keeping track at home.  No word as to whether these two franchises will be awarding season ticket holders back their money.  Don’t count on it.

The second most disappointing team was the Los Angeles Chargers.  Expected to finish with 9 ½ wins, the Chargers once again fell flat, winning only five games and unsurprisingly firing their head coach. You may have heard of their new one. 

And finally, the New England Patriots were the third most disappointing team, finishing 3 ½ games behind their projected win total.  Vegas didn’t expect much, 7 ½ wins, but the Pats could only muster four.  The Panthers, Chargers and Patriots all have new head coaches.

Enough of that bloodlust.  Let’s move onto our winners and picks for this year.

Only eight people participated this season.  I guess some of us didn’t get the memo, which means the odds of winning our grand prize were strengthened by our lack of entrants.  To the victor go the spoils.  I will be contacting our winner for details, but first, in descending order:

In 8^th place, it should come as no surprise that the gentleman who lost to me in our annual pick ‘em came in last place in this contest.  KP was ice ice baby all season.  Accordingly, he has fired his GM and looks to rebound in 2024.  His major mistakes were choosing the Vikings, Titans and Jets to all finish over this season.  Memo:  They didn’t.

In 7^th place, BNR Moose. This just goes to show you how close this contest can be.  Moose’s top two picks, the Eagles and Chiefs went into the final week of the season trying to hit their number.  They didn’t.  Moose had the Eagles winning over 11 ½ games.  They won 11.  He also had the Chiefs winning 11 ½ games.  They won 11.  Flipping those two wouldn’t have won him this contest but it would have kept him out of 7^th place.  Better luck this year, sir.

In 6^th place, we have a regular cellar dweller in our annual contests.  The good news for J-Dub is that there’s no other way for him to go in my contests but up, as he generally finishes around last place.  The bad news is he feels comfortable in the basement.  It puts the lotion on the skin, Dubs, or else it gets the hose again.

In 5^th place, yours truly.  I put too much faith in the Jags, Chargers and Vikings.  When will I learn?

In 4^th place, Bruce, who didn’t have any faith in either the Rams or the Lions hitting their number.  He had them both finishing under with his top two picks.  He got only one other pick wrong, the Bucs finishing under.

In 3^rd place, losing second place to a tiebreak, we have perennial front-runner Ravenous finishing with 40 of a possible 55 points.  Not having faith in the Houston Texans was his demise.

In 2^nd place, the ravishing not Ravenous BCole dominated but lost only because, ironically, she didn’t have faith in her NFL-beau Sean McVay.  She had the Rams going under their projected total of 6.5 wins.  Fortunately, McVay is the only hot man recently to disappoint her.

And finally, our winner, with a grand total of 44 points, Sauze Bauze.  The Bauze only missed two out of ten, whiffing on the Vikings going over and the Bucs going under.  Congratulations, sir.  I will be emailing you details to send you out your prize package.

Thanks again, gang, for all the support.

Now on to this year’s over/unders.  The rules remain the same as in years past.  In the comments section below, choose ten teams in order of confidence, to finish above or below their projected win total.  Per tradition, as your tiebreak, list the total of wins for the three NFL teams (Miami, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay).  A fabulous and hearty, perhaps even lucrative, prize pack will be awarded to this year’s winner.

Good luck, everyone, and happy football season!

Arizona Cardinals 6.5

Atlanta Falcons 9.5

Baltimore Ravens 11.5

Buffalo Bills 10.5

Carolina Panthers 4.5

Chicago Bears 8.5

Cincinnati Bengals 10.5

Cleveland Browns 8.5

Dallas Cowboys 10.5

Denver Broncos 5.5

Detroit Lions 10.5

Green Bay Packers 9.5

Houston Texans 9.5

Indianapolis Colts 8.5

Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5

Kansas City Chiefs 11.5

Las Vegas Raiders 6.5

Los Angeles Chargers 8.5

Los Angeles Rams 8.5

Miami Dolphins 9.5

Minnesota Vikings 6.5

New England Patriots 5.5

New Orleans Saints 7.5

New York Giants 6.5

New York Jets 9.5

Philadelphia Eagles 10.5

Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5

San Francisco 49ers 11.5

Seattle Seahawks 7.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5

Tennessee Titans 6.5

Washington Commanders 6.5