A triumphant return.
Picture this, if you will.
A confident yours truly, red flowing cape, bejeweled crown, velvety trim, walking slowly, a kingly strut even, scepter tapping the marble floor as I spin to take my rightful place at the golden throne, all my own.
Last year, I picked games at a 63% clip for you, the people, with the hopes that my instincts would bring us all winnings. Alms for the poor! I am, after all, a charitable king, an enlightened despot.
Not to be outdone, my nemesis from that other less lavish kingdom up the road finished with 57% accuracy while you, the peons, struggled mightily, combining for the first time in three years to finish under .500.
That’s okay, I am here to help, for here is your shot at redemption.
In Week One, we welcome back Croshere who has traditionally kicked off this contest, helping ring in a new football season. In three seasons, he is 6-9 and in 9th place overall for barely positive money ($10). Here’s hoping his actual sportsbook account shows a more positive number.
As usual, a handsome prize will be awarded to anyone who can submit a perfect five-for-five week. Happy Footballing, everyone!
$50 on South Carolina at Kentucky (-8 ½)
South Carolina was one of the worst teams in the SEC last year. Meanwhile, these Kentucky kids are not your Wildcats of old. In fact, one might even be so bold as to suggest that Kentucky fans look forward more to football season than they do basketball. The ‘Cats hold a winning streak against Florida, which pisses me off, but these days, what school doesn’t? Kentucky football should rank near the top of the conference. Unfortunately for them, they’re still a far cry from Georgia and probably even Tennessee. A still stagnating USC team labored with Old Dominion last Saturday while a still on the rise Kentucky program appears to be solid on both sides of the ball. I look for them to handle their business in their home conference opener against the Cocks. Cats cover.
$40 on Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3 ½)
I expect big things out of the Lions this season. You can wager on Jared Goff to win league MVP at 16 to 1 if you like him. I can easily see him throwing two to three touchdowns a game without being fazed. If that wager is too bold for you, you can still find the Lions at plus money to win that division, a number I find skewed by all the affection we’re showing the Packers and Bears. I don’t think the Lions like how last season ended. In fact, I’m quite certain of it. They’ve had all summer to stew about it. I can see the Lions routinely putting up thirty points a game this season with master motivator yet still coach-in-learning Dan Campbell sparking a fire under his team’s defense until they get it right. The Rams stroll into town Week One and while they should prove a formidable opponent to most, Puca Nakua isn’t 100% and I’m still not convinced Kyren Williams is ready to handle the bulk of the carries, especially against a Lions defense that was one-and-a-half quarters away from getting to the Super Bowl. The Lions start their retribution campaign by covering the three-and-a-half at home against the Rams.
$30 on Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Lotta new faces in Los Angeles these days. In fact, the only face that Chargers fans might recognize is the guy playing quarterback. They have all new running backs, wide receivers and oh yea, a new head coach, who I highly doubt will lose his first home game to a divisional rival, especially one as heinous as the Las Vegas Raiders. Harbaughs don’t roll like that. The Chargers are only laying three, I imagine because of the question marks surrounding so many new roster pieces. As long as the Raiders remain the Raiders and settle on Uncle Rico as their starting quarterback, I’ll take the new guy to make his mark. Chargers cover the three.
$20 on California Golden Bears at Auburn Tigers (-12)
Speaking of rude awakenings, Cal might just be in for one. They’re in the ACC now. (Bonus points if you knew that.) Either way, whatever conference they’re playing in, early season trips to Auburn can’t be any fun. Just ask Alabama A&M who last week got waxed by 70. Cal is no Alabama A&M but I’m not sure this is a trip, nor an environment, the smart kids at Berkeley are ready for. They lost to Auburn at home last year and struggled to make a bowl, despite finishing their regular season with three straight wins. I’ll take War Eagle to cover the twelve.
$10 on Colorado Buffaloes (+7 ½) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
I’m not sure what to make of the Colorado Buffaloes this season. Head coach and meter-mover Deion Sanders is either still the hottest coaching commodity in college football, or one step away from being fitted for a straitjacket, or both. This weekend they travel to Nebraska and are getting seven-and-a-half. Nebraska handled UTEP in its home opener while Colorado struggled with North Dakota State. Shedeur Sanders still got his though, passing for four touchdowns. Colorado put themselves on the map last season with an unexpected early win at TCU. They’re not sneaking up on anyone anymore. Nebraska will be ready, although I do like the fact that I’m getting seven-and-a-half and a team that no one wants to play. Colorado won’t disappoint us until later in the season. They keep this one close. Give me the Buffs and the points. (Side note: I might even throw a little action on the over at 57.)
Croshere’s Picks for the Week (Career 6-9, +$10, 9th place)
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
This feels like a trap. I mean, Jim Harbaugh isn’t exactly trustworthy in recent years, is he? Maybe I’m snake bitten by how many NFL games I faltered on in this top slot last season. Still, you can’t argue Harbaugh’s record in the NFL and where it ranks among the best in the game. In the end, regarding Vegas, I don’t trust an offense led by Gardner Minshew II and Zamir White. The Raiders have added a few key pieces on both sides of the ball, and that includes rookies like Brock Bowers. These guys are going to need time and I like Harbaugh to figure this out pretty quickly. Chargers cover at home.
$40: Bowling Green Falcons at Penn State Nittany Lions (-34)
Fine, I’ll be a homer. Yes, I’m a Penn State grad. No, I don’t have complete faith this team will figure it out, despite the expansion to 12 playoff spots. But this is a group that has a boatload of talent, and there seemed to be a calm confidence surrounding this Penn State squad last week at West Virginia. Not something I’ve seen in past years under James Franklin. We don’t quite know how good (or bad) the Mountaineers are, but you can’t question the creativity of Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. My only gripe may be to spread the ball around more, and not throw so many times to Tre Wallace. Good defenses will shut that down quickly. But this week, it’s Bowling Green, and a pumped up home crowd that is ready to scream their heads off (in jubilation). Let’s roll. Nittany Lions cover at home.
$30: Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Louisville Cardinals (-28)
I narrowed this slot down to a few different lines in College Football. Eventually, I landed on this game for a few reasons. A handful of ranked teams are likely locked in for home cooking blowout victories, including the Cardinals. So, it depends more on the quality of the opponent each team is facing. With the Gamecocks, they lost 55-27 to Coastal Carolina last week. Jacksonville State trailed 41-10 through three quarters. It’s starting QB completed just seven passes. Now, Jacksonville State faces a ranked Cardinals team on the road. This is a Louisville team that defeated Austin Peay 62-0 last week. Overall, a thirty-plus point win doesn’t intimidate me at all. Louisville covers at home.
$20: Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Many prognosticators are down on the Bills this season. When I say “down”, that simply means analysts believe they are not Super Bowl contenders. Stefon Diggs is now in Houston, but he did tend to be a “me me me” presence from time to time. There’s balance offensively and Josh Allen is always a threat to put up big numbers both through the air and on the ground. A few units may be taking a step back. That’s to be determined. Meanwhile, the Cardinals open the season healthier than last year, and add in a few intriguing (and talented) rookies. But if you take a step back and think about Josh Allen and the Bills Mafia crowd at home, then it’s easy to like Buffalo to win by a TD or more. Bills cover at home.
$10: Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Analysts get lazy and build predictions based off a roster from the previous season. Washington has a completely different look, including ownership, front office, and coaching staff. Dan Quinn is an upgrade and a fiery guy that players love to play for. There are upgrades on the roster across the board, with LB Bobby Wagner a stabilizing presence on defense and rookie QB Jayden Daniels getting his first ever start. The early returns are positive for Daniels. Austin Ekeler will add an extra look in the backfield alongside bruiser Brian Robinson. Regarding the Bucs, Baker Mayfield had a bit of a resurgence last season, but I could see Washington’s defense throwing a lot of looks at him. My gut says this will be a competitive and close game throughout. Give me the Commanders and the points on the road.
