“Long is the way, and hard, that out of hell leads up to light.”
That’s the line from the movie Se7en that Kevin Spacey’s character John Doe leaves for Detectives Mills and Somerset before embarking upon his bloodbath.
That’s exactly what Week One was last week. A bloodbath. The three of us combined to go 5-10 against the spread (most of that coming from our celebrity guest, who went 0-5).
I should have known better than to fiddle with college football. Not only do I not watch as much as I should but last Saturday quickly turned into upset special with Auburn losing at home to Cal, Kentucky getting waxed at home to South Carolina, and Southern Illinois going into South Bend and fighting the Irish into submission.
This week, I include only one college game and focus mostly on the NFL, more of my comfort zone. We invite back regular SportsChump VIP contributor, J-Dub of Dubsism infamy. While I’d advise taking his picks with a grain of salt, I will say this. In the first year of this contest, he went 1-4. In the second year, he went 2-3. Last year, he went 3-2, so at least he’s making progress.
Happy footballing, everyone. Wager wisely and enjoy your weekend!
$50 on New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
The league was kind enough to give the New Orleans Saints a first-round bye last week, against division-rival Carolina, who at this point is probably hoping they can match last year’s lofty win total of two. Similarly, the Cowboys beat the living snot out of Cleveland and made the last of us football fans question whether DeShaun Watson is still a capable quarterback. This week, New Orleans travels to Dallas to take on a newly rich Dak and an NFC East team that has legitimately higher aspirations than the Saints. New Orleans’ best defensive player Marcus Lattimore is questionable which means you should consider starting Dak Prescott in daily fantasy and more importantly, you should bet on the Cowboys. If this game were played ten months ago, the line would be double digits. The Cowboys are laying less than a touchdown against a Saints team that is better than last year but still not ready for prime time. Anybody could look good against Carolina and that performance has skewed this line. I like Dallas to continue their hot start and give the Saints all they want. Dallas covers the six.
$40 on Los Angeles Chargers – Carolina Panthers (Under 40 ½)
After watching the Chargers drudge along with their new head coach and lineup, I made a vow to myself. Continue to bet Chargers games under until they figure out their offense, which they will, but it will take time. We all know new head coach Jim Harbaugh will bring the intensity defensively. He’ll make sure from Day One his team stops opponents from scoring. The Raiders, the Chargers’ opponent in Week One, only mustered one touchdown. Similarly, the Chargers went their first three quarters without finding the end zone. This team is a work in progress. Accordingly, I will wager on Chargers games to go under their total until they hit their first over. Consider it my Sean Payton/Iowa corollary. Plus, this week they’re playing the Panthers who can’t score at all. I’ll happily take Chargers under 40 ½.
$30 on Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)
Here’s a battle between two AFC teams that better figure things out quickly, for one of them is about to start 0-2. The Jags had the Miami Dolphins right where they wanted them last week… and lost. The Browns hosted the Dallas Cowboys last week and looked like one of the worst teams in the league. That’s because they just might be. The Jags aren’t that bad of a team, still loaded with talent. They just can’t get out of their own heads. This is their opportunity, a responsibility falling primarily on Trevor Lawrence. DeShaun Watson on the other hand, can’t seem to complete a pass. Or as one friend told me not long ago, maybe he’s just not that good. Things aren’t exactly calm in Cleveland right now, but this might be the calm before their storm. They are financially locked into Watson so if they continue to underachieve, heads will roll, and that first head might belong to their head coach. In a battle between two Clemson national championship quarterbacks, I’ll take the one surrounded by less turmoil. Jacksonville covers the two.
$20 on Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1 ½)
Buffalo looked nice this past weekend, like they hadn’t lost a step. Down two scores, they came back to defeat the feisty Arizona Cardinals, a team whose A and C do not stand for Always be Closing. As usual, Josh Allen put his team on his back and led them to victory, once down 17-3. He will be asked to do so again in Miami this Thursday night. He won’t have to be careful driving to the stadium, as he’s white, but the Dolphins will be ready. This has become one of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL. This game has gone over in three of the last four and the Dolphins haven’t beaten the Bills in two years including a loss at home in last year’s playoffs. The Fish will be hankering for revenge. That plus the bonding experience this team had thanks to the overzealousness Miami Dade PD last Sunday should have the Fish ready to go. They might want to take an Uber to and from the game just in case. I don’t like the fact that Mostert is out and Achane is questionable, but Miami should have enough firepower to keep Buffalo at bay. Miami covers the 1 ½.
$10 on UTSA Roadrunners at Texas Longhorns (-34)
Texas looks frightening. I understand that Michigan is missing their quarterback, running back and head coach from last season but the Longhorns went into the big house last week and did whatever they pleased. Accordingly, they’re ranked a stout number two in the nation. They return to Austin this week and are hosting UT-San Antonio, who allowed Texas State to score 49 on them last week. If Texas State is putting up that many points, the Longhorns punter may not need to suit up. Texas is only laying 34. Seems light. I’ll lay ‘em.
Celebrity Guest Week Two: J-Dub of Dubsism (Career 6-9, -$150,
In a tradition much like his annual syphilis “cure,” SportsChump holds this “against the spread” NFL challenge and invites a cast of usual suspects to participate. Being one of the most usual of those suspects, Week Two generally has reservations for the most interesting independent sports blogger on the web. Having said that, the Chump in his usual palsied magnanimity pointed out my even more usual futility with this event…while failing to mention my track record betting the college game. What he also fails to mention I don’t run for my comfort zone, I stick to the NFL game here. Either way, this will be the year Chump can finally kiss my pigskin.
Dubsism’s Picks for the Week (Career 6-9, -$160, 17th place)
$50 – Las Vegas at Baltimore (-9.5)
I’m on the Ravens all the way here. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to split a case of malt liquor tailgating with Gardner Minshew, but come game-time if I bet on him I couldn’t afford it.
$40 – San Francisco (-6) at Minnesota
Let’s all say it together…it’s a wee bit early to forget the reality that has been Sam Darnold.
$30 – New York Giants at Washington (-2)
How can the Washington Generals be favored against anybody…even a team whose quarterback looks a penis with a cartoon face drawn on it?
$20 – New Orleans at Dallas (-6.5)
With his new contract, Dak Prescott can bribe the refs and still have plenty left over to keep the coffers filled on the Cowboys’ team legal defense fund.
$10 – Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
Arizona might need to get a call in to the Vatican and have the entire college of Cardinals pray for divine intervention…not to win this game necessarily, but for anybody to give a damn about Cardinal football.
KP’s Weekly Picks
$50: Los Angeles Chargers (-5) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are still the Panthers. That much was very clear last week. A 30-3 halftime deficit and a 47-10 loss in New Orleans. It’s never ideal to have knee-jerk reactions after one game, but this seems like a safe reaction to make. Carolina had 193 total yards and just 3.5 yards per play. Bryce Young opened the season with a 13-for-30 performance. It’s all around ugly for the Panthers. On the flip side, the Jim Harbaugh era opened strong in Los Angeles. The Chargers had pretty good balance offensively during its week one win against the Raiders. I expect that to happen again. Chargers cover on the road.
$40: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
The Pittsburgh defense held the Falcons scoreless on the road during the second half last week. The Atlanta offense was expected to take a major jump this season, yet floundered to just ten points. Credit the Steelers, with impact players like T.J. Watt. Speaking of Watt, the biggest matchup of the week has to be Watt facing Denver’s offensive line and rookie QB Bo Nix. Nix threw 42 times in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Despite the volume, Nix posted just 138 passing yards and 2 INT. The rookie is taking his lumps, as expected. Expect more this week. Steelers cover on the road.
$30: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Michigan Wolverines (-22)
It was an ugly loss for the Wolverines last week. What a difference a year makes, although it’s not at all surprising considering the drama and Harbaugh departure. Statistically, it’s not pretty. Michigan ranks 121st in total offense through two games. The defensive unit ranks 69th, allowing 316.5 yards per game. Arkansas State, on the other hand, ranks 101st in total defense and 51st in total offense. That’s facing Tulsa and Central Arkansas. So if facing the Red Wolves at The Big House isn’t a cure for Michigan’s early season woes, nothing is. Wolverines cover at home.
$20: Ole Miss Rebels (-21) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest was predicted to finish near the bottom in the ACC this year by numerous publications. Some key transfers have sent the Demon Deacons back a bit. Last week’s 31-30 loss to Virginia was likely a tough pill to swallow. Enter Ole Miss and an explosive offense led by Lane Kiffin. The Rebels ranked 13th in total offense last season and they are currently first in the country this season, averaging an insane 713.5 yards per game (and 9.21 yards per play). Yes, Wake Forest is a tougher test when compared to the likes of Furman and Middle Tennessee. Most teams would be. Ole Miss covers on the road.
$10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) at Detroit Lions
We know what the Lions bring and the talent they possess. This pick is solely based on what I’ve seen from Baker Mayfield. This is a story of a talented player that needed to find the place that wanted him. That brings comfort and confidence. Of course, throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin also helps. Last week’s line (24-30, 289 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) sure tells that story. Sure, it was facing a rebuilt Commanders defense that was clearly still trying to find its footing. But my gut says Baker is going to have a lot of games like that, and give me this Tampa Bay team all day with this line. This should be close and competitive and quite possibly the game of the week. Give me the Bucs and the points on the road.
