You know those “friends” of yours that are always trying to give you relationship advice yet can’t seem to stay in a successful relationship themselves?
Well, I don’t want to be that guy.
Just as I boasted about my profitable end to last season, I’ll be the first to admit that these the first two weeks of this season have me scratching my head. And I’m not the only one. 2268 people entered one of my elimination pools. After Week Two, only 426 remain. That’s over 80% of the pool gone thanks to the unpredictability of this season so far. In other words, I’m not the only one muddling through this NFL madness trying to make any sense of it all.
I’m not going so far as to say I’m breaking up with wagering on football. I am saying it’s time for me to reevaluate my approach.
4-6 and minus money (-$60) is not how I wanted to start this campaign, however, it does suggest that, at least for now, you read my analyses cautiously before wagering. On the other hand, my nemesis is cruising right along at 6-4 and plus money ($100). I may have to resort to a little Spy-Gating.
Our guests so far, Croshere and J-Dub, have also felt this season’s wrath, combining to go 3-7 for -$200. Apparently, they’re listening to the same bad advice I am.
What we’ve learned so far in 2024, and what we already knew, is that on any field, at any time, any team can beat any other. So, gather your information carefully, drown out the noise, and proceed with caution.
This week, we invite Dr Milhouse, who is over .500 in this contest for his career, barely, and has never turned down the opportunity for an ill-advised wager.
Here’s to finally figuring out this football season.
$50 on Georgia Tech at Louisville (-10)
Something weird is happening in Louisville and it coincides with the return of Bobby Petrino. I’m not sure where the Petrino rehire ranks in terms of disgraced coaches returning to the sidelines but it’s no secret that high-profile programs will overlook a few misgivings as long they accompany W’s. And that’s exactly what Petrino brings (back) to the Louisville football program. Wins. I know they haven’t been tested yet, but they’ve already put up 111 points in two games. This weekend, they host Georgia Tech, who we thought was good after they beat Florida State, and then we saw Florida State start 0-3. I’m not sure the Ramblin’ Wreck is ready to keep up with everything Coach Petrino will throw at them. Louisville has had their two warm-ups. They’re ready to turn some heads in conference play. They’ll do that this weekend when they cover the ten against Georgia Tech.
$40 on Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (Under 40 ½)
Bryce Young has been benched! The Carolina Panthers are an abomination. Things are so bad in Charlotte that they’ve resorted to starting Andy Dalton. The Red Rocket hasn’t quarterbacked a team to a winning record since, get this, 2015. Since 2019, he’s played for Cincinnati, Dallas, Chicago, New Orleans and now Carolina. The Panthers are about to find out if there’s anything left in his 36-year-old arm. This isn’t exactly the week he’ll want to dust off the cobwebs as he’s facing one of the league’s best defenders, Maxx Crosby. Crosby played like a man possessed last week. The Raiders shocked the Ravens in Baltimore with Crosby now leading the league in tackles for a loss. The Panthers offensive line will have to do its best to protect Andy Dalton from Crosby’s wrath and even that might not matter. The over/under is 40 ½ which is simply too damn high. The Panthers have only scored 13 points so far this season! I’m taking the under, probably in every Panthers game from here on out, until they prove they can score the football.
$30 on Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Mike Tomlin is the coolest guy in the NFL. I’m sure Steelers fans have an altogether different view of their head coach who, while he continues to amass winning seasons, hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 2008. To say this year’s Steelers are winning ugly is an understatement. To put it far more politely, they are winning within their means. They’ve won their first two games by scores of 18-10 and 13-6. They’re the perfect games to nap to. If they were a movie, you’d walk out of them, or at least wonder why you spent good money to see it. But they’re winning, a perfect 2-0, and sit atop a division in which they were supposed to finish dead last. Another legendary cool coach waltzes into Pittsburgh this week bringing his own brand of ugly, deliberate football. My most successful gambling call to date was taking Chargers games under until they figured out their offense. They haven’t and probably won’t against a feisty Steelers defense. These two veteran coaches clearly have the utmost respect for one another and are both 2-0. I just have this eerie suspicion that Coach Tomlin is going to welcome his counterpart with an L. It won’t be a game worth watching, unless three-and-outs are your thing. In a battle of three yards and a cloud of dust, I’ll take the guy who has been in the NFL longer. Curtain covers the lone point.
$20 on Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-4)
Residing squarely in the this-is-how-little-we-know-about-football department, the Bills keep plodding along. They lost their top two targets at wide receiver, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and somehow, they’ve gotten better. I fell victim to the Panic in Buffalo hype. Who would Josh Allen throw to? Turns out, that’s not a problem for the league’s leading MVP candidate out of the gate. Buffalo has turned more to their running game and not just the legs of Josh Allen. He is no longer their leading rusher, thank goodness, for that is never a recipe for long-term success in the NFL. Buffalo has looked to James Cook who cooked Miami last week to the tune of three touchdowns and a buttload of fantasy points. Buffalo is as well-rounded as they’ve ever been with Allen behind center. Their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, are 0-2 and, if you include the end of last season, have now lost 7 of their last 8 games. They lost a game they should have won against a struggling Cleveland team and are a shell of the team that started last season 8-3. The Bills know who and what they are, the Jaguars are still struggling to find that out. They’re about to find out that they are a 0-3 football team. This line inexplicably opened at four but should climb to close to a touchdown on a breezy Monday night in Buffalo. Bills should cover either number but since I found it at four, that’s the number I’m playing.
$10 on California Golden Bears (+3) at Florida State Seminoles
I’m not sure what I’m missing here. Florida State is awful. They might even be the worst college team in the state and that’s saying something because the Gators are a sneeze away from firing their head coach. A few weeks ago, I made the mistake of underestimating Cal, thinking they’d lose to Auburn handily. They didn’t. Auburn is better than Florida State. Pretty much everybody is. Cal is sound defensively and the Seminoles cannot move the football. They’re seventh to last in the nation in yards per game. The Berkeley Bears are getting three and again, I’m not sure why a winless team should be favored over anyone. I’ll take Cal plus the three until Florida State proves that they can win a game.
Dr. Milhouse’s Picks for the Week (Career 8-7, -$30, 10th place)
5 points – Chiefs -3.5 – A Falcons team that barely escaped the Eagles, run by Kirk Cousins until they can shuffle him off to Shady Pines, in a prime time game against the Kansas City Swifts? Not a chance. Bring on the Penix Era.
4 points – Bills -5.5 – The Jaguars defense will keep Allen contained, but their offense is not going to be good enough to keep it close. No matter who the Bills have as kicker by Monday night (and it should be Bass), expect a bunch of field goal attempts and 20+ yard passes.
3 points – Bucs -7 – Baker Mayfield is gearing up for one hell of a year and the Broncos are on the struggle bus. Two games in and Bo Nix leads the team with rushing yards at 60. The Bucs defense will end up containing the Broncos offense, such as it is. Bucs by double digits.
2 points – Raiders -5.5 – Watching RedZone this year, my wife has kept a tally of how many times I’ve said, “The Panthers are just….so bad.” It’s been nine times in two weeks. It’s possible they rally around the Red Rocket himself, Andy Dalton. I just don’t think it’ll be this week.
1 point – USC -6.5 – Michigan has limped past two bad teams, and got punched in the face by Texas. I’m not trusting them against any good opponents until proven otherwise this year. They’ve already benched their QB, their star tight end is hurt, and this might be the weekend Michigan’s season ends. USC goes into the Big House and rolls.
KP’s Weekly Picks
$50: Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
In the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” department, I’m going back to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Mayfield (5 TD, 1 INT, 73.5% completion, 129.1 rating) is off to a torrid start and returns home to face rookie QB Bo Nix and the Broncos. Nix (0 TD, 4 INT, 59.7% completion, 51.0 rating) has taken his lumps, as expected. The Tampa Bay defense is 28th in passing yards allowed through two weeks, but they have yet to allow a passing TD. Again, give me Baker and this scrappy Bucs team in front of its home crowd. Buccaneers cover at home.
$40: Ohio Bobcats at Kentucky Wildcats (-19.5)
A team is defined by how it responds to adversity. Kentucky threw everything it had at #1 Georgia, falling 13-12 in a thriller. How will the Wildcats bounce back after a loss of that magnitude, especially when facing a weaker opponent such as the Bobcats? Kentucky has faced both Georgia and South Carolina this season, so they are battle tested. The Wildcats rank 19th in total offense, but with opponents like the Bulldogs, that may not be as alarming as it should be. Defensively, Kentucky ranks 9th in the country, allowing just 215.0 yards per game. Expect the bounce back at home. Kentucky covers at home.
$30: Houston Texans (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Both teams rank in the top ten in yards per play allowed (4.7) through two weeks. Both teams have 13 penalties through two games. In total offense, the Vikings rank 13th and the Texans are 11th. You get the idea. These two teams are pretty evenly matched statistically, at least… this early in the season. Sam Darnold (72% completion percentage and 111.8 rating) has proven that he belongs. Minnesota has home field advantage, but in my opinion, the Texans have the talent advantage. Maybe I should have it ranked lower in my top five, but I’m sticking with this slot. Call it a gut feeling. Texans cover on the road.
$20: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
This line surprises me a bit. Yes, the Falcons have home field. It took everything Atlanta had to outlast the Eagles on Monday night. That’s facing a Philadelphia defense that has been vulnerable through the air. Kirk Cousins is off to a shaky start and the Falcons (20th in total yards) have failed to find their footing through two games. Now, they have to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Isiah Pacheco is out, which leaves a hole in the run game. Still, Kansas City tends to fill these gaps quite effectively. The Chiefs are in a more cohesive place right now. Atlanta needs time to gel. Chiefs cover on the road.
$10: James Madison Dukes at North Carolina Tar Heels (-10)
C’mon, when the Tar Heels hear the term “Duke”, they get all fired up and take their game to another level. That has to be the same facing the Dukes, right? James Madison opened the season with wins over Charlotte (30-7) and Gardner-Webb (13-6). The Dukes rank 99th in total offense through two games, while facing lesser opponents. North Carolina, meanwhile, ranks 22nd in total defense. It’s early in the season, but with this combination and home field advantage, I’m comfortable rolling with the Heels. North Carolina covers at home.
