2024 Week Four College and NFL Pick ‘Em: DRealEmcee’s Dominance

Things are becoming a little clearer this football season and by that, I mean, we still have no idea what’s going on.

Will the Jaguars or Bengals ever win a game?  Will the Steelers or Bills ever lose a one?  Who’s the best team in the NFC South or West?  Is Jayden Daniels the best quarterback taken in last year’s draft?  Who will challenge Josh Allen for an MVP award he’s seemingly already won?  And how in the world is Sam Darnold leading the league in touchdown passes?

Like I said, this NFL season is about as clear as a dirty windshield.

Well, readers, this week, you’re in luck.  In the four years we’ve held this contest, only three participants have finished each of their three weeks with a winning record.  This week, we proudly invite one of them back to share in his infinite wisdom.  Throughout the duration of this competition, DRealEmcee has picked games at a 79% clip so you might want to pay attention.

Here are the numbers so far this season.

Kevin @ The Wife Hates Sports (8-7, $70)

SportsChump (7-8, -$10)

Celebrity Guests (5-10, -$170)

Stay safe from Helene, my fellow Floridians, and happy footballing! 

$50 on Commanders-Cardinals (Over 49 ½)

I’m going to be bold.  There’s only one over/under on the board this weekend that’s hovering around 50 points.  49 ½ to be exact.  And I’m going to take it over.  After reminding the Bengals that they never play well the first month of the season, the Washington Commanders head into Arizona on an emotional high.  Their win was so convincing, with rookie quarterback Jaylen Daniels playing so confidently, that he is now, after Week Three, the odds-on favorite to win rookie of the year.  He’ll face another high-powered offense this weekend, another mobile young quarterback and another top draft pick who can beat you with both his feet and his arm, Kyler Murray.  As usual, the Cardinals offense is scary, and now features more weapons.  The problem is, they can’t keep anyone from scoring.  Neither can the Commanders, who are fourth worst in the league defensively.  That’s a bad recipe for a team about to go against Arizona, even without Trey McBride.  With Daniels continuing to want to impress and Murray perfectly capable of one-upping him, I can easily see this becoming a shoot-out.  If so, start every Washington and Arizona player you can in fantasy and bet the over 49 ½.

$40 on Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3 ½)

My fantasy ticker tells me not to start Jared Goff against the Seahawks.  After looking to see why that is, I soon discovered the Seahawks lead the league in fewest passing yards allowed per game.  Here’s where stats can be misleading.  En route to Seattle’s stellar secondary start, I found they did this against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brisset and Skylar Thompson, three quarterbacks who have combined to throw for one touchdown all season.  Jared Goff is not that kind of quarterback.  So technically, we don’t know how good, or bad, Seattle’s secondary is.  I’m guessing Goff will put them to the test.  The ‘Hawks travel to Detroit this Monday night where two of the better teams in the NFC will square off.  The Lions, whose offense isn’t quite clicking yet, are one step closer to figuring things out, one would think at least.  Seattle is getting their respect; the line is only 3 ½.  After all, the Seahawks have impressed so far this season.  But again, look who they’ve played, three teams all with one win each.  Lions have faced stiffer competition and are more battle-tested, giving them the edge with a minimal spread.  Theretofore, I’m jumping on the Detroit minus 3 ½.

$30 on Colorado Buffaloes (+14 ½) at Central Florida Golden Knights

We’re back on the Prime Time Train.  I’ve probably lost more fake (and real) money betting on the Buffaloes these last two years than anyone I know.  As big fat underdogs, they’re just too tempting to bet money line.  They’re underdogs again this week heading into Orlando, with Sanders returning home to the state that made him famous.  While many have written off the Buffs, they’re quietly 3-1.  This week, they face UCF who might be looking ahead to their matchup next week in the Swamp.  The Knights lead the nation in rushing yards per game (Thanks for that stat, Partykiller) so expect them to keep Colorado’s offense off the field on what could potentially be a muggy, post-Helene Florida day.  UCF is also stout defensively against the run, top ten in the nation.  But that’s not what Colorado does.  They like to air it out, which might be one of the only chinks in this underrated UCF team’s armor.  UCF is tough but 14 ½ is too many points to lay against a Colorado team that’s fifth in the nation in passing.  UCF has everything to lose, the Buffs have nothing to lose.  I’ll take prime time and the points.

$20 on Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+ 3)

If I were to tell you that, since 2015, the Buccaneers and Eagles have played each other six times, which team would you think had the winning record?  You’d probably guess the Eagles, right?  They seem to carry this image of being the better team.  What if I told you that the Buccaneers have beaten the Eagles five out of the last six times they played?  That includes a 32-9 beatdown in last year’s playoffs that sent the Eagles home for the season and their fans wondering what had just happened.  As good as the Eagles are, the Bucs have their number.  The Eagles got away with one in New Orleans last week thanks to superstar performances from Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley.  But their top two receivers are potentially out for this game.  The loss of AJ Brown cannot be overstated.  Without him setting the tone, the Eagles offensive output has sputtered despite Barkley leading the league in rushing.  We’ve also seen their head coach make some questionable calls in key moments.  Similarly, the Bucs are trying to figure things out.  They followed up a spectacular performance in Detroit with a lackluster showing at home against previously winless Denver.  This isn’t a must-win for either team, they’re both 2-1.  But neither wants to drop to 2-2.  I’m getting 3 points and the team with the better head-to-head record, so I’ll take it and hope for the best.  Bucs cover.

$10 on Saints-Falcons (Over 42)

I looked long and hard to find my fifth game.  All the lines seemed spot on, which means they’ll probably go haywire this week.  I stumbled upon the Falcons-Saints over/under, which opened at 46 yet shot down to 42.  It struck me as odd as these games are typically high scoring.  I looked at the recent history between these teams to see if that was correct.  While the personnel on Atlanta was entirely different, the totals over the last six games ran 65, 39, 39, 53, 50 and 52.  The Saints have scored 47 and 44 in their first two games, albeit against the crappy defenses of Dallas and Carolina.  They sputtered in Week Three against Philly.  Atlanta hasn’t exactly been lighting it up, but they’ve played against three potential playoff teams: Pittsburgh, Philly and KC.  We’ve slowly started to see Kirk Cousins feel more comfortable in that offense so much so that we’ve even had a few Kyle Pitts sightings, shocking fantasy owners everywhere.  Again, I’m not sure why this number dropped four whole points, but I’m inclined to take it over.  These teams don’t like each other, and they both can move the ball when so inclined.  In a game between two teams whose offenses I trust more than their defenses, I’ll take Saints-Falcons over 42.

DRealEmcee’s Picks for the Week (Career 11-3-1, +$290)

Thanks again for CHump for giving me this platform to add to your degeneracy. This year, I’ve decided to do more bets on team totals, as this (especially early season CFB) is easier to predict than the spread, as we know a backdoor cover is always primed to fuck us. But betting team totals allows us to watch and cheer for more points, and allows us more ways to cover (defensive scores, special teams, backdoor covers, etc).

CFB:

 USF (Team Total OVER 28.5 and/or First Half Team Total OVER 13.5 ) at Tulane

                USF has played 2 top 10 teams tough as hell within the last month (Bama and UM) both games were close in the 2^nd half before USF and their lack of depth flamed out down the stretch. So the idea here is to target them early, and assume they may fade late. So the first half team total is really nice at 13.5, a high tempo offense like USF should be able to cover. With USF’s defense better than last year but still in year 2 of a rebuild, a veteran Tulane team should be able to put up points, which should in theory force USF to play catch-up. If USF gets going early and doesn’t stall in the redzone or commits turnovers, it could be a track meet. Take USF’s points here.

Arkansas Team Total OVER 23.5 at Texas A&M

                                Arkansas has made me a nice profit so far in this early season, Sam Pittman is fighting for his job and hired Bobby Petrino as OC to help save it. So far its working fairly well. They played OK State to the final play in Stillwater and arguably should’ve won if they played better complementary football. They struggled a bit with UAB until they pulled away late and went into Auburn and played a great defensive game and pulled away late again. They’re scoring points even in tough environments like on the plains last week in Auburn, they found a way to score 24 in a tough defensive game.

**Guest’s Note: (They should’ve scored more- go back and watch the final 4 minutes of that game online and cry with me as I had a live bet on Arkansas over 26.5).

I have nothing bad to say about Mike Elko and A&M, this is just a play for Arkansas, a team I’m beginning to like this year as my workhorse to win me some cash- we all have a team or 2 every year that wins or at least covers every week.

Kentucky + 17.5 at Ole Miss

                I’m not a big fan of getting a big number for a poorish offense on the road, but Kentucky has been really weird so far this year, a rain shortened blowout win vs Southern Miss, a blowout home loss to South Carolina, close home loss to UGA, and the obligatory blow out at home vs Ohio. So this bet is hinging on if UK’s defense can come to play on the road and assuming Ole miss has their usual egg laying (no pun intended) before they theoretically step in in class to play at South Carolina next weekend. I’ll go with UK, begrudgingly.

Eastern Michigan Team Total OVER 29.5 at Kent State

                Pretty simple, Kent State might be the worst team in D1, they lost to St. Francis (FCS/IAA) BY 6 AT HOME! And looked putrid doing so. Plus they’ve been clocked by both Penn State and Tennessee by the combined score of 127-0 the last 2 weeks. In theory, conference home opener should be a good test to see if Kent St. has any juice the rest of the year, they might, but you have to trust the numbers and the eye test and assume EMU will at the absolute worst score some points here. The spread of 14 might be a plan for EMU also, but I’m playing it safe with the team total.

NFL

Minnesota +3 at Green Bay

                I have no moral compass; I will bow at the feet of our lord and savior Sammy Darnold. If Malik Willis starts again for GB, then I like this play even more, if Jordan Love ends up starting, then I might regret it. But I do trust Minnesota’s defense- regardless of who plays QB in this game for either team. I think they keep it close.

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10) at Purdue Boilermakers

The Cornhuskers hit the road following a disappointing seven point loss to ranked Illinois. Nebraska freshman QB Dylan Raiola (8 TD, 2 INT, 967 passing yards) has played well, and now faces a Purdue defense that ranks 9th in passing defense (123.3 ypg). That stat is a bit deceiving, however, considering opposing defenses have just 18.0 pass attempts per game, which is the fewest in College Football. Purdue is 94th in total defense and the Boilers have allowed 104 points in its last two games. Give me the more talented Huskers to post a multi-TD victory against its conference rivals. Nebraska covers on the road.

$40: Stanford Cardinal at Clemson Tigers (-21.5)

Since its blowout loss against Georgia, Dabo and the Tigers have rebounded by outscoring opponents 125-55. Clemson ranks 18th in total offense, while this week’s opponent – the Cardinal – ranks 94th. The Tigers frequently overwhelm and dominate opponents at home. In fact, I took a few minutes to do some number crunching during Dabo Swinney’s tenure at Clemson. The Tigers have won at home by three TD’s or more 57 different times. That’s if I counted it correctly, but you get the idea. That’s insane. These Tigers will be playing hard for all the families impacted by Hurricane Helene. Clemson covers at home.

$30: Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson has struggled. The stats don’t lie: 49.3% completion percentage, 3 TD, 6 INT, and a 55.9 QB rating. That’s facing three solid defenses in the Bears, Packers, and Texans. It doesn’t get any easier this week, with T.J. Watt and the Steelers traveling to Indy. Watt has a sack in each of his first three games. Pittsburgh ranks first in total defense, allowing 687 total yards. They rank 5th against the pass and 3rd against the run. Opposing run games have managed just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground (2nd only to Baltimore). That leads to more pressure for Richardson to perform. Steelers cover on the road.

$20: Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) at Penn State Nittany Lions

I don’t get this line at all. Maybe I’m too tough on my alma mater. Sure, Bret Bielema gave some bulletin board material to fans stating he doesn’t know what “White Out Energy” is. Yes, Penn State ranks 7th in total offense (537.7 ypg), but that stat is bloated after facing an abysmal Kent State team. Five of the last nine meetings between these teams have a score differential of 17 points or less – and that’s with lesser Illinois teams. This Illini group is ranked and is well coached. Drew Allar and Penn State’s offensive balance and creativity should outlast the Illini, but this game should be competitive throughout. Give me Illinois and the points on the road.

$10: Kentucky Wildcats (+17.5) at Ole Miss Rebels

These teams continue to land on my top five radar each week and now they face each other. I’m a bit leery of the pick considering the Ole Miss offense, which ranks 1st in College Football, averaging 670.8 ypg). But let’s consider the opponents Ole Miss has faced: Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. Now, let’s look at the Wildcats, a team that held Georgia to just 13 points a few weeks ago. Kentucky ranks 10th in run defense and 2nd in pass defense, allowing just two TD through the air in four games. The Wildcats are more battle tested at this point in the season. Give me Kentucky and the points on the road.