Every Sunday night, after the weekend’s action has concluded, I try to predict the lines for the upcoming week. It’s a common practice for those who gamble.
Last week, I was uncannily correct, picking spreads to the half-point, which generally means, or at least I though it did, that the following week’s outcomes would be more difficult to determine.
What I discovered instead was that I had to dig deeper into the lines to find ones that suited me, to find mismatches or overlooked reasons one team would beat another. And I did so accordingly, to the tune of 5-0, our contest’s first perfect week of the season.
Dare I be so bold as to say last week’s breakdown was as well-thought out as I’d completed in the past four years. Takes bow, pats self on back.
Now, the trick is to do it again. After all, that’s what we gamblers hope for, to dissect all pertinent information, use it to our advantage and hope for the best.
This week, we invite back BCole, whose steadfast ability to pick winners has her leading her annual pick ‘em league, but, when it comes to picking games against the spread, things become a little dicier.
It bears note, as I forewarned you last week, DRealEmcee had yet another stellar outing and has vaulted himself into first place in this contest. He is 15-4-1 picking winners for this site over the last four years. It’s well worth reading how he breaks down games to find something he likes, and fires away.
After all, we’re here to help you, not the books.
$50 on New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
One line stood out to me more than any other this week: that is the Giants traveling cross-country to play a pissed off Seattle team, with the ‘Hawks laying less than a touchdown. I figured this line would be closer to double digits yet here I am getting one of the better teams in football, hosting one of the worst teams in football, and I’m only laying six? What am I missing? Sure, the Seahawks are on a short week but so what? They’re healthy and angry they just got embarrassed by Detroit. Last time I checked, the G-Men aren’t starting Jared Goff. The Giants have the worst record in one of the worst divisions in football. The Seahawks have the best record and sit atop one of the best divisions in football. The Giants have scored 60 points in their last four games. The Seahawks are top ten in scoring per game. I know underdogs are covering this year but the farther I dive into this matchup, the fewer reasons I find that the Giants keep it close. They won’t. And oh yeah, the Giants best player and most frequent target is on the shelf. Seahawks cover.
$40 on New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (+4, in London)
As you know by now, I’m a sucker for revenge games and there’s a beauty of one brewing in Week Five. The young, downtrodden quarterback we all once laughed at, who got run out of New York, now leads the league in touchdown passes while playing for another team. If bearded Sam Darnold wore a “Joke’s On You” t-shirt to practice, how many Minnesotans would gobble it up? I’m guessing the bulk of them. Of course, it helps to have Justin Jefferson to throw to, but the Minnesota Vikings are no fluke. The offensive line protects Darnold, giving him time to pass, meaning his many targets will get theirs and so far, they have. Defensively, the Minnesota Vikings lead the league in rushing yards allowed. That means the Jets will have to attack their weakness, which is through the air, where the Vikings are susceptible. They have already faced some pretty good quarterbacks in Purdy, Stroud and Love. The question is, does Aaron Rodgers, thirteen years Darnold’s senior, have enough in him to pick at the Vikings soft spot. Rodgers has a quality receiving corps but has looked lackluster finding them. This line for some ungodly reason opened with the Jets as four-point favorites. Had I seen that number when it came out, I would have bet my condo on it. Chalk it up Vegas overvaluing the Jets combined with our continued distrust and disrespect for the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings. More importantly, Darnold, a shoo-in for comeback player of the year, was shunned by the team he’s hosting on Sunday. If you think for one moment the players in that Vikings locker room don’t want to win one for the kid, you’re out of your mind. Combine that with the Jets still trying to piece things together, and a once-vaunted defense that doesn’t look as good as it has in years past, and I’ll take the Vikes and the points overseas.
$30 on New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (Over 40, Still in London)
In keeping with my Jets-Vikings theme, let’s try this game over. The number is already low at 40, third lowest number on the board this week. Admittedly, if you take away the Niners game in Week One, the Jets have only allowed 30 points their last three games. But it’s the Niners game we should look at for that’s the best offense New York has played and they weren’t able to do anything about it. If the Vikes get out to a lead, the Jets will have to beat them through the air which, as I mentioned earlier, might be their game plan anyway. That means big plays, incomplete passes, clock stoppages and more opportunities to score. We’ve been waiting for this Jets offense to get going. If they’re even somewhat able to match Minnesota’s offensive output, this game should clear the over easily. Besides, the game is in London and with the NFL’s continued effort to push its product down international throats, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a few whistles swallowed to promote scoring, even though we all know Londoners are perfect happy with 1-0 finishes in their sporting contests. I’m a believer in the Vikes. I say they score, New York has to throw to catch up and hit Minnesota where their vulnerable as we all happily watch this total go over 40.
$20 on Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (+3 ½)
In the again-what-am-I-missing department, we have a division leader at home, hosting one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL and multiple opening lines had the Brownies favored?!? Again, let me back up my Brinks truck. After Week Four, there aren’t too many of us not hitching a ride on the Jayden Daniels bandwagon. The rookie has been lighting it up. You know who hasn’t been lighting it up? The quarterback he’ll be facing this weekend that Cleveland paid $230 million. Watson’s deal will go down as one of the worst contractual blunders in league history. So why should I believe the Browns have anything left to give? They’re not a good football team. They’re one of the worst running teams in the league and guess what, they can’t pass the ball either. They’re middle of the road defensively and are going against a team that’s starting to look dangerous. The Commanders are one of the top-scoring teams in the league. The Browns, on the other hand, are counting down the weeks until season’s end, which is never a good sign in Week Five. Commanders continue to roll in a scrimmage and cover the three.
$10 on Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)
I’m not quite sure what’s going on in Las Vegas but by all accounts, it doesn’t sound good. They’re actively dangling their best player as trade bait, mostly because he wants out, and their new head coach is defiant. At first glance, one would think Antonio Pierce a player’s coach, but I’m not convinced that’s the case. He’s waffling on who to start at quarterback, his best defensive player is all banged up and his best wide receiver is injured, allegedly. Pierce might be in over his head. The Raiders lone bright spot this season was shocking the shit out of the Ravens. They also beat the Browns last week, but I mean, come on. They struggled against the disciplined Chargers defense and will do the same against Sean Payton whose Broncos have allowed the third fewest points in the league. For those of you waiting for the Raiders to implode, expect the fuse to get a whole lot shorter on Sunday. Broncos cover.
BCole’s Picks for the Week (Career 6-9, -$150)
Texans +1.5. I love the Bills but I believe that the Texans will continue to ride this hotness train and will bring home another victory.
Commanders -3. Fuck Deshaun Watson. Fuck the Browns for signing Deshaun Watson.
Seahawks -7. The G-Men continue to struggle and I think the Seahawks will capitalize on it.
Broncos -3. After seeing how they performed against the Bucs and the Jets, I believe they can cover the points against the Raiders.
Packers -3. Not sure why the Rams are performing so poorly but I think they will succumb to the Packers this week.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio State Buckeyes (-18)
Iowa starting QB Cade McNamara is a former Michigan player, so the excessive hatred for OSU already lives in his mind. The history of these two teams is surprisingly limited, with just five head-to-head matchups dating back to 2009. Ohio State won four of those games, including a 54-10 beatdown back in 2022. McNamara has just 588 passing yards on the season, and just 161 total in games against Minnesota and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes rely more on its top ten ranked rushing offense (250.25 ypg), but will now face an Ohio State defense that allows just 61.75 ypg on the ground (3rd in College Football). Add in home field at “The Shoe” and this won’t be close. Ohio State covers at home.
$40: Indiana Hoosiers (-13.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
I’ll bite. I’ll hop on the Indiana hype train. Curt Cignetti (11-1 with James Madison last year) has the Hoosiers filled with confidence. Indiana’s high flying offense ranks ninth in the country (513 yards per game). The Hoosiers average 51 points per game – a “50 burger”! Indiana’s offense has been well balanced statistically, too. The Hoosiers rank 18th in passing offense and 23rd in rushing offense. On the flip side, the Wildcats average just over 17 points per game. That includes games against Eastern Illinois and Miami Ohio. The numbers are lopsided, to the point that you wonder if it’ll come down to how Indiana responds now that they are ranked. Stay the course and it’ll be a blowout. Indiana covers.
$30: Duke Blue Devils (+9.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Don’t look now, but Manny Diaz has the Blue Devils 5-0. Yet, Duke is a nine and a half point ‘dog to the Yellow Jackets on the road. Duke ranks 25th in total defense, including 17th against the pass. Duke’s pass defense has allowed just 4 TD through the air in five games (with 4 INT). That will be a test for the Georgia Tech offense, which ranks 32nd in College Football. Georgia Tech starting QB Haynes King has been efficient this season, including his 312 passing yards against ranked Louisville last week. His lone INT was back on August 31 (vs Georgia State). This will be the matchup of the game. King versus Duke’s pass defense. In the end, Duke should keep this close. Give me Duke and the points on the road.
$20: Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
All aboard the Jayden Daniels hype train! Sorry, it’s already left the station and tickets to catch the next one are increasing by the day. I first considered taking the over for this game, but found the Browns have been in low scoring games all season. That takes me back to Washington, a team having fun and filled with confidence. The Brian Robinson injury doesn’t help, but Austin Ekeler is cleared to return. Washington’s offense has scored on 23 possessions. Jayden Daniels has just 19 incompletions and Tress Way has four punts. These are insane numbers. On the flip side, Deshaun Watson (727 passing yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 61.5 completion percentage, and 23.9 QB rating) has struggled. Commanders cover at home.
$10: Michigan Wolverines (+2.5) at Washington Huskies
On paper, we have a National Championship rematch. That should bring excitement, but once you look at the landscape and how different the rosters and coaching staffs are on both sides, it changes everything. The Wolverines have won three straight, including back-to-back three point victories against Minnesota and USC. Washington has been in its fair share of close contests, as well. Michigan ranks 116th in total offense, while the Huskies are 21st. The Huskies also rank higher in total defense. There are so many other games I nearly took here. It’s more of a gut feeling, that a top ten team that is a road ‘dog that is learning to win close games in hostile environments. Give me Michigan and the points on the road.
