2024 Week Nine College and NFL Pick ‘Em: TJ’s Tantalizers

65%.

By most accounts, that’s a passing grade.

That’s what I got in 9^th grade biology, barely.

That’s also the accuracy with which my partner is picking football games.

Sixty-five fucking percent.

KP is 25-13-2 against the spread and up a whopping fake $510 on the season.

More importantly, of the sixteen combined $50 and $40 games he’s had to choose, he’s gone 13-2-1!!!  That, my friends, is what they call sharp shooting.

But it wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, and this contest isn’t over either, but I had to give credit where credit is due.

Since we’re citing Bluto, let’s doooooooooooo it!!!!!!

$50 on Rams/Seahawks (Over 48)

I noticed some high over/unders in this week’s 4 o’clock games.  In fact, there’s not a single game under 44 ½.  Rams-Seahawks is one of those games.  Speaking of Halloween, guess who has risen from the dead.  You guessed it, the Los Angeles Rams.  Puca Nacua and Cooper Kupp are late to the party, but Matt Stafford couldn’t be happier to have them back.  Throw all the previous meaningless stats out for this team as they’ve haven’t been a complete roster yet.  Now, they are, as evidenced by them putting up 30 points on the 5-1 Minnesota Vikings.  The Rams have had a full week of rest and would like to remind the Seahawks that they’re not all that good defensively.  Then again, neither are the Rams, which is very un-Rams-like.  Which is why I like this game over.  Fantasy owners, start every Ram and Seahawk you have in your line up and comfortably bet this game to land over 48.

$40 on Washington Commanders (-3) at New York Giants

I found another inexplicable line this week.  For some reason, the Commanders continue to get no respect, no respect at all.  Jayden Danielsfield might want to start grabbing his tie, sweating and telling one-liners on Carson.  Your clearcut Rookie of the Year winner is coming off the emotional high of his game-winning Hail Mary while his counterpart at quarterback this week, Danny Dimes, is still trying to make change.  In four home games, Danny has yet to throw a single touchdown.  And yet this line is only three points.  The Commanders are in first place; the Giants, as usual, are in last.  This line should at a minimum, be a half a point higher (it’s moved since the opening line) but I’m not sure even that hook would convince New Yorkers to bet on the Giants.  New York fans have nothing left to root for.  The Mets and Yankees are both done.  The Jets have been exposed.  The New York Knicks will be eventually.  And let’s face it, nobody had much faith in the Giants to begin with.  Any fans that step into MetLife Stadium this Sunday will still feel the disappointment of an entire city, and it serves their residents right for failing to stand up to that nonsense in the Garden the other night.  Commanders corral and cover.

$30 on Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2 ½)

As you’ll read below, my Knuckleheaded forum-dwelling friend Teej is a long-suffering Cowboys fan.  Poor guy.  Their lack of success is inexplicable, unless of course you’ve heard the name Jerry Jones.  His inability to surround himself with decision-makers that he trusts is only ironically contrasted by his undying belief in his quarterback and coaching staff.  Go figure.  This year’s Cowboys allow the second most points per game behind only Carolina.  They are a one-dimensional football team that can’t run, can’t defend and boast a whopping -48-point differential.  This matchup has both Kirk Cousins, and his fantasy owners, licking their chops.  The Falcons aren’t exactly known for their defense either, they’re near the bottom of the league in red zone defense, but they can score at will where Dallas cannot.  The Cowboys rank a cool 31^st in the league in red zone offense, so something will have to give.  Dallas’ inability to run the ball and Dak Prescott ranking 24^th in QBR has Cowboys fans yearning for change.  This line of under a field goal can only be explained by America’s continuing belief that America’s team will eventually turn things around despite providing no evidence they’re capable of doing so.  Falcons fly.

$20 on Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers (-15 ½)

What the hell happened to Kentucky?  They went from giving Georgia a run for their money and beating Ole Miss to dropping three straight football games.  They’ve been outscored in their last three, all losses, by a combined score of 92-43.  Things don’t get easier for them as they travel to Knoxville this week for a night game, and then Austin two weeks after that for what’s likely to be another beatdown.  Tennessee is coming off a victory over Alabama and is currently ranked 7th in the nation.  They’re sniffing an invite to the college playoffs if they can keep things up.  Very quietly, Tennessee is ranked third in the nation in points allowed.  Combine this with a rowdy night atmosphere in Neyland Stadium and a Wildcat team that is having trouble finding the end zone and this has all the makings of a blowout.  The line is only 15 ½.  Tennessee is too sound a football team to suffer a letdown.  Vols cover.

$10 on Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+3 ½)

Well, alright, I’ll bite.  I’m a Tampa Bay fan and a Florida Gator alum so let’s just say over the years that I haven’t uttered too many kind words about Jameis Winston.  He led Florida State to a national championship then, as starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, once threw 30 interceptions in a single season.  Winston, who is routinely clowned for his endless optimism, is now the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, who can use a dose of optimism after their 1-6 start.  All Jameis did in his first start of the season was upset the Super Bowl minded, seemingly invincible Baltimore Ravens.  His emotional defense of Deshaun Watson raised eyebrows but that’s simply how Winston rolls.  His new-found positivity has this Browns team believing.  How else can one explain a 1-6 team beating a 5-2 team?  Winston is playing with house money but must now go against the best defense in the league.  The Chargers will throw everything they have at him, and they’ll likely intercept him, probably more than once but gunslingers keep gunslinging.  If 30 interceptions in a season didn’t make Winston gun shy, nothing will.  While impressive defensively, the Chargers still can’t put points on the board.  They’re allowing 13 points a game but only scoring 19.  Even Cleveland’s overrated defense won’t help the Chargers rack up points, not if Jameis Winston: Motivational Speaker has anything to say about it.  The fact that Vegas has this over/under at 43 leads me to believe they like at least a little bit of scoring, which favors the only one of these teams that can score.  I see a healthy dose of pre-game inspiration from Jameis followed by a healthier dose of Nick Chubb the ball carrier.  Cleveland shook up the world last weekend.  Don’t be surprised if they do it again this Sunday.  Take the Browns plus the opening line of 3 ½.

TJ’s Picks (Career 8-7, +$30)

Here we go, @SportsChump . Lines taken from Caliente sports here in Mexico…who just copy them from several books in Vegas, as far as I know:

5 Texans (+2) over Jets. Like…why are the Texans underdogs?

4 Falcons (-2) over Cowboys. I’m a Cowboys fan who has quit on the season.

3 Bills (-6) over Dolphins. I’m surprised this line is under 10.

2 Commanders (-3-5) over Giants. I’m surprised this line is under 20.

1 Buccanneers (+9) over Chiefs. I expect the Chiefs to remain undefeated. It will be close, though.

KP’s Picks

$50: New Orleans Saints (-7) at Carolina Panthers

Carolina stinks. Dionte Johnson has been traded to the Ravens. That’s fewer weapons for Bryce Young to throw to. Young has a 19.3 QB rating this season. New Orleans isn’t much better. The Saints are hampered by injuries. But Derek Carr is set to return, which should provide a boost to the offense. Perhaps the scariest stat for me is the fact that the Saints and Panthers have allowed the most yards in the NFL. New Orleans is allowing 6.1 yards per play, more than any other team. Allowing 51 points to the Bucs two weeks ago will help inflate that stat. Overall though, Carolina is brutally bad. New Orleans trounced the Panthers in Week One and I can see it happening again on Sunday. Saints cover on the road.

$40: Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5) at Michigan State Spartans

Anyone else feel like the Indiana dream season is set to crash down at any moment? Maybe, but Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers rolling – and I can see him jumping ship for a big time job sooner rather than later. While the schedule has been weak, Indiana is scoring nearly 47 points per game. They rank 6th in total offense (487.6 ypg). Perhaps most importantly, the Hoosiers are 7-1 covering the spread. Michigan State (4-4), on the other hand, is a team rebuilding and finding a new identity. There have been some positive signs as of late, including a home win over Iowa and a tight loss to the rival Wolverines. But I like Indiana to keep rolling – at least, this week. Hoosiers cover on the road.

$30: Washington Commanders (-3) at New York Giants

How will Washington play following last week’s HAIL Mary? More momentum or football hangover? The Giants continue to play well against the Commanders. That includes this year’s close loss where Washington had seven field goals. That was the second game of the season and let’s think about this some more. Seven scoring drives for the Commanders. The offense was moving and the team was still trying to find its identity. Jayden Daniels played last week despite the rib injury. One can assume he’s continuing to improve and will play the entire game. With him in mind, New York has allowed the sixth most yards on the ground. Washington continues to build on a successful season. Commanders cover on the road.

$20: Ohio State Buckeyes (-3) at Penn State Nittany Lions

I’m a trends guy and a reverse psychology guy, too. My alma mater is due. But the Nittany Lions have lost nine of ten to OSU. Key injuries always show up prior to (or during) the big games. QB Drew Allar is banged up, but reportedly will play. How will his mobility be? Will DE Dani Dennis-Sutton play? He’s key for Penn State’s defense. How about RT Anthony Donkoh? You need all your pieces for games like this. Also, everyone knows James Franklin’s record in big games. Plus, Big Noon? C’mon, man. Penn State is a slow starting team. Fall behind early – as they have in the last two games – and it’ll be brutally hard to come back against Ohio State’s 2nd ranked defense (254.4 ypg allowed). I’ll gladly take the loss on this prediction, but I don’t see it. Buckeyes cover on the road.

$10: Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Seattle Seahawks

What a difference having Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back can make for a QB! It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out – just an average Joe watching Stafford launch rockets to his top receivers. Facing a solid Vikings defense, Stafford put up his best line of the season: 25-34, 279 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 124.9 Rating. This week’s road trip to “The 12th Man” is always a challenge. But when you look at the Seahawks, this is a team that is floundering. Four losses in its last five while giving up 152 points in that span (30.4 ppg). On top of that, DK Metcalf and Noah Fant have been ruled out. That’s a major hit to an offense that will need to keep up with LA’s offense that is turning the corner. Rams cover on the road.