My introduction to this week’s action, in two parts.
Part One: Why we should never gamble.
One need only look at the updated standings of the nine celebrity guests who have participated in this shindig so far. Here are their records picking games against the spread over the last four years.
Only three of nine have finished in plus money and two of those have won a total of $20 each. That leaves one high hog, DRealEmcee, the only outlier and a monster prognosticator in his own right going 15-4.
The rest have gone an underwhelming 67-96 against the spread. That’s 41% accuracy, for negative money. You, my friends, are who casinos and gambling services lick their chops over when they see you walk in the building or deposit another bundle of cash.
Those are the dangers of gambling. And these are just straight up picks that fail to include the multitude of parlays that I’m sure you’re involved in.
I include myself in this underachievement for even the almighty SportsChump has sputtered this year, an extremely average 22-22-1, not much better than our celebrity guests who are a combined 22-23.
This is exactly why Las Vegas, and now so many other states, have constantly refurbished casinos, and why I’m surprised it took so long for states outside of Nevada to legalize sports gambling.
Part Two: Why we should gamble.
If you know what you’re doing, you stand to make a killing.
Let’s look at our leader, KP, who continues to go against the grain. Another winning week has him 29-12-2 against the spread. That is 70% accuracy!
Now, I won’t tell you that behind closed doors, KP has confided in me that he hasn’t been able to turn his hot streak into actual winnings, which again defeats the purpose of this exercise.
The game is rigged against us, children. Wager wisely, pick your spots and for goodness sakes, ride the hot hand.
Enough lecturing, onto this week’s picks. Our celebrity guest this week is Swoops, he of the game-picked bar naps. He has once again entered the building and is a voice you should listen to. He ranks SECOND overall in this contest and in three years, has gone an astounding 13-2. He’ll be looking to topple DRealEmcee and his stranglehold of first place. Wish him luck. He’ll need it.
$50 on Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Note: This was written before Trevor Lawrence was listed at Out, not that it would have mattered. I’ve learned a lot this season by taking a new approach. That is to consistently bet against bad teams. The five best teams against the spread this year are Detroit, Washington, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. I’m not quite sure what Indy is doing on this list but the other four are easily explained. The bad teams in the league, which I suppose is true every year, are sufficiently bad. Let’s look at the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have lost 12 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. There was once a time when every single pundit in America thought Trevor Lawrence would be the next great NFL quarterback. The flowing locks, the golden arm, the guy was only a freshman at Clemson, and we had already crowned him the next Andrew Luck. Let’s just say he’s having a down year. Trevor Lawrence’s completion percentage is currently lower than Deshaun Watson’s and he is 23rd in QBR, one slot ahead of Dak Prescott. The Jags are the worst team in a bad division and have nothing to play for other than pride which I think they lost long ago. Every week, their head coach is rumored to be on the hot seat, yet he continues to keep his job. Meanwhile, the Viking’s 5-0 start soon saw them lose their hold on the NFC North after they dropped two of their next three. This is the first of three straight road games and while 6-2 looks nice now, they won’t want to drop too many more and lose a tenuous grip on playoff position. Their two losses to Detroit and the Rams are respectable, meanwhile, the Jags have proven incapable of beating a quality team. The Vikes are only laying a field goal here where it should by most sensible accounts be higher than that. Until the Jaguars prove to me that they have any desire to win, I will continue to bet against them. Vikes cover the three on the road.
$50 on Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7 ½)
Don’t look now but the Chargers are relevant again. All it took was Jim Harbaugh walking into the building to make them immediate contenders. Seriously, how do you take a team that was allowing over 23 points a game last season… and shave that number in half? The Chargers are far and away the best defensive team in football. The Titans are somehow allowing fewer yards than any other NFL team, but they allow teams to score over 26 points a game against them, which tells me they are inept on offense. The Chargers are the wrong team to go against if you suffer from the inability to matriculate. Not surprisingly, this game is the lowest over/under on the board at 38, for both these teams rank in the bottom five of the league in offensive first downs. This game has 23-10 written all over it. Chargers will get the ball enough times in good field goal position to put points on the board and cover while stifling Tennessee’s struggling offense. Harbaugh minus.
$30 on Buffalo Bills (-2) at Indianapolis Colts
One does not know what to make of the Colts this season. One week, they beat the Steelers, the next week, they lose to the Jaguars. Aside from that Steelers win, however, the Colts don’t have an impressive win on the season. They’re 4-5 and aren’t a good football team. They continue to waffle between Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco at quarterback, which means they’re struggling to find an identity. Most watching their games know just what their identity is: a team that won’t make the playoffs. While they rank atop both the Bengals and the Jets in the AFC playoff standings, you can’t tell me you have more confidence in the Colts than those other two teams, and those other two teams suck. The Bills, however, do not suck and they travel to Indy this week to continue their assault on the AFC East standings. Anyone of us who ever doubted Josh Allen was mistaken. He’s one of the leading candidates for league MVP and continues to defy logic. Their sound running game has alleviated some of the pressure on him to move the ball with his legs and the addition of Amari Cooper has already proven to be a blessing. The Bills are too good of a football team to stumble against a middle of the road Colts team. While a number one seed in the playoffs might be out of reach, the Bills understand they’ll want as many playoff games to go through Buffalo as possible. Bills cover the deuce on the road.
$20 on Alabama Crimson Tide at Louisiana State Tigers (+3)
Maintaining my philosophy to bet with streaks and not against them, let’s take a trip to Baton Rouge and the annual grudge fest between Alabama and LSU. The streak I’m referring to is the night game streak that LSU fans hold so dear. The Tigers haven’t lost a night game at home in 15 matchups. Thirteen of those have been coached by Brian Kelly. Kelly is also 7-1 after a loss. After an opening week loss to USC, LSU was coasting until their second half against Texas A&M last week where they imploded, turning the ball over three times. Kelly has had a full two weeks to right this ship. An LSU win would give Alabama its third loss of the season, their first time losing that many since 2010. Both these teams can score at will and neither is particularly stout defensively. The over/under is 58 so expect fireworks. The home team is getting three points. I know that betting against Alabama is generally risky business. I get that they just manhandled an occasionally decent Missouri team. But their last two road games were losses, at Vandy and at Tennessee, so I can’t help but wonder whether this team, under their new head coach, is ready for prime-time SEC road action. This has all the makings of whichever team gets the ball last wins. I like LSU in that position. Either way, I’m getting a ranked team in their home stadium and a field goal so I’ll take LSU and the points in what should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
$10 on San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6 ½)
I have faith in my boys. Perhaps I shouldn’t considering, like so many other unlucky NFL teams that have lost their best two players, they’ve been struggling lately. While Mike Evans rehabs his hammy, the Buccaneers continue to go out and play hard. Of course, they haven’t won one since he went down to the Ravens three weeks ago. They have, however, been in every game despite having relatively no name receivers to throw to. The Bucs lost to the Falcons by five and the Chiefs by six. This week, they host a similarly banged up team who is running out of gauze pads. The San Francisco 49ers come to town this week with rumors a-swirling of Christian McCaffrey’s return. The Niners are also coming off a bye, so they’ll be rested while Tampa is on a short week. The Niners have also been struggling, losing to the Chiefs and barely beating the Cowboys. By most standards, 4-4 is not where this Niners team wanted to be. Similarly, the Bucs 4-5 record is disappointing for a team that was once 4-2 and winning their division. This is by far the hardest part of Tampa’s schedule, having played the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and Niners all within a month but they’ve played valiantly despite their setbacks. The Bucs know they can compete with anyone in the league, even if they’re not 100%. Bucs stock is down, Niners stock is artificially high. Six and a half is too much to give. I’ll take the home team to keep this one close.
Swoops’ Picks (Career 13-2, $310)
KP’s Picks
$50: Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
I have no immediate data to back this, but I feel like I struggle picking against the Colts when they are at home. Yet, here we are. The Josh Allen vs Joe Flacco matchup is enticing to me, especially with Michael Pittman out for the Colts. Flacco (7 TD, 2 INT) has played well this season and is the full-time replacement for the disappointing Anthony Richardson. This is more an endorsement for the talent of the Bills, especially on offense. Buffalo has scored 30 points or more in all but two of their games this season. Bills cover on the road.
$40: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers (-23.5)
Lopsided SEC lines often scare me, but if there’s one to grab, it’s this game. The Volunteers are at home against the struggling Bulldogs, who are 2-7 and have allowed 30 points or more in all but two games this season. Mississippi State is 129th in total defense, allowing 461.8 yards per game. Enter the Vols, a team that is 9th in total offense (474 yards per game). This one could get ugly. Tennessee covers at home.
$30: Georgia Bulldogs (-1.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
This one should be fun. Kirby Smart and Lane Kiffin. The 37th ranked offense (Georgia) versus the 2nd ranked offense (Ole Miss). The 12th ranked defense (Georgia) versus the 22nd ranked defense (Ole Miss). The Ole Miss offense is explosive, but it seems to sputter more in big games or facing ranked opponents (as most offenses would). So this pick is more trust for Kirby Smart. It’s more the expectation that the Bulldogs have more talent and more depth. We are in November now, and this is when the Bulldogs really start to lock it down. Bulldogs cover on the road.
$20: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1)
I’m back and forth on where to rank this game. Traveling cross country tends to create a major disadvantage for the road team. Miami has played much better with Tua back and running the offense, but it’s not leading to wins. Matthew Stafford and the Rams are also clicking more offensively with Nakua and Kupp back. It’s a tossup game that should be a fun watch, so I’m giving the slight edge to the home team in this case. Rams cover at home.
$10: Washington Huskies (+13.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions
Road teams traveling across the country have struggled in the Big Ten this year. Wins are few and far between. We saw how Penn State – USC went a few weeks back. That favors PSU, but I have questions. Will we see Andy Kotelnicki’s creativity reemerge? It disappeared in key moments against the Buckeyes last week. How will Penn State bounce back from its first loss of the season? How will the talented Nittany Lions offense fare against Washington’s defense that ranks 10th in College Football and allows fewer than 300 yards per game? The Whiteout game will spark the fans, but the broadcast is behind a paywall (Peacock). Penn State wins, but it should be close. Give me Washington and the points on the road.
