52.38%
Can anyone tell me what that number signifies?
I’ll wait.
Experienced gamblers should know this number by heart.
That is the rate at which you need to pick games against the spread to turn a profit.
But why not 50.1%, SportsChump?
Most of you already know the answer to that question but someone did ask me lately what the minus in front of the number means, so let’s start from scratch in case there are still some newbies in the audience.
The reason you must win over 52.38% of your straight bets to turn a profit is because of the juice, or vig, or rake.
Have you ever sat at a poker table, won a big hand only to see the dealer take some of your chips? That’s the rake. That is the house’s fee for allowing you to gamble. Silly rabbit, they’re not going to let you pick games for free. So, when you see -110 by a point spread, that -10 is going to the house.
This is why parlays are so tempting and so dangerous.
Now that we got that out of the way, let’s look at our percentages this year so far, and in years past.
Here are the last four years of us collectively picking games.
As you can see, for the most part, we’ve done respectably, with a few minor missteps. Pat yourselves on the back, just in time to prove we can do it all again this weekend, when we have some tasty matchups. Wager wisely, my friends.
Since we have such important games this weekend, I have chosen not to shy away from the action and choose only the biggest games of the week.
Here goes nothing!
$50 on Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Somehow, someway, Mike Tomlin has taken two quarterbacks that nobody wanted and used them to his benefit. What he’s done this season has been nothing short of masterful. The All-American rejects, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, have combined to lead the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 7-2 record and first place in the AFC North. We all know that Tomlin-coached teams finish above .500 as assuredly as the sun rises in the East but nobody in their right mind expected them to be as good as they are. In fact, you know the apocalypse is near because, for the first time since 2009, even the most skeptical Steelers fans are saying nice things about their coach. It won’t last. The Ravens fly to Steel City and there’s not a football fan among us, including those who live there, who doesn’t think the Ravens are the better team. That’s because they are. They have the better quarterback, the better running back and a better overall offense. That offense is about to be tested as the Steelers only allow 16 points per game, which is good for second best in the NFL. They are, however, vulnerable against the pass. As much as we still view Lamar Jackson as a running quarterback, he’s not. Jackson is second in the league in passing yards behind only Joe Burrow. As brilliant a mind as Mike Tomlin is, the guy on the other sidelines can also coach ‘em up. This game is for first place in the AFC North. As impressive as this Steelers run has been, three of their last four wins have come against the Raiders, Giants and Jets. Yes, they beat the Commanders last week but that’s a team starting a rookie quarterback against which Tomlin feasts. Lamar is no rookie. He’s a two-time MVP with a potential third in his sights. The Ravens will want to make a statement in this one and prove they’re the cream of the AFC North crop. They have the talent to do so. I’ll take the Ravens minus.
$40 on Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-1)
How many times can the Chiefs squeak out a win? Seriously, the Chiefs are a perfect, if not inconceivable, 9-0, not that they’re not good enough or even worthy of that record but a few things have gone their way on the road to perfection. The Chiefs, like most other NFL teams this season, have lost key players yet still manage to do the unthinkable. This Sunday is their first real test, a road game against a team that they own so psychologically that most Buffalo fans have cancelled their State Farm Insurance because of their hatred for Patrick Mahomes. If ever Buffalo needed a win, not because of the standings, but because of pride, it’s this Sunday. We all know the Bills can beat the Chiefs in the regular season. It’s in January when they tighten up. They’ll be loose on Sunday. They have the Chiefs right where they want them and while this might not be a playoff win, the Bills can at least take pride that they ended the Chiefs’ perfect season. I know Mahomes’ record as a road dog is legendary but it’s time for the last surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins to crack open the champagne, even if it means rooting for the Buffalo Bills. Look for Josh Allen to have a monster game and tighten his grip on an MVP Award this weekend. Bills cover the lone point at home.
$30 on Cincinnati Bengals (+1 ½) at Los Angeles Chargers
Like I said, this week I am not shying away from a challenge. I’ve already picked two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in a win and feel good about it. I’m doing so again in this matchup. The Bengals are scratching and clawing their way into the playoffs. It seems like every week the Bengals play another difficult opponent. That’s true again this week as they travel to SoFi to play the pleasantly surprising Chargers, who are on a three-game winning streak and are the best defensive team in the league. Except for Pat Mahomes, however, the Chargers have yet to face a quarterback quite like Joe Burrow. The Bengals are under .500 on the season yet still have a positive scoring differential. If you take away their 20-point debacle to Philly, the Bengals have lost to the Ravens twice (by one and three points), the Commanders by five and the Chiefs by one. If the Bengals want to make a playoff run, and I believe this team is talented enough to do so, they need to start now. Their clock is ticking as loud as ever. They’re currently a nine-seed behind the Colts and Broncos. The Colts are moments away from imploding, if they haven’t already, and the Bengals will host the Broncos later this season. Harbaugh has been a godsend to Southern California, but he’ll have his hands full trying to stop Joe Burrow. Take the Bengals and the point-and-a-half on the road in a game they should win outright.
$20 on Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+6 ½)
Welcome to the NFL, Caleb Williams. Only months ago, you were touted as the second coming. You hadn’t yet taken a snap in a Bears uniform, and many had already proclaimed you the best quarterback in franchise history which, after a thorough look, isn’t that much of a stretch. Ten weeks in, Bears fans aren’t as giddy. The honeymoon is officially over. A promising start has led to a precipitous slide, so much so that redrafting last year’s quarterbacks might not have Williams first, if not second or even third. This will be his biggest week yet. Why’s that? Because it’s Green Bay week, the first time he’ll face a rival he’ll hope to spend a career facing. Although 6-3, the Packers haven’t impressed like we thought they would. Both these teams look up at Minnesota and Detroit in the division standings. Things within the Bears locker room are tenuous, or so we’ve heard. DJ Moore is unhappy. Williams isn’t the leader they thought he’d be. And their head coach. Well, how could he possibly live up to the legacy of a certain Coach Dit-ka. That said, while this is not necessarily a must-win for the Bears, it’s a must show up. If the Bears fail to show up for this home matchup, Matt Eberflus might as well kiss his job goodbye. That might be the case anyway. They fired their offensive coordinator as recently as last week, a casualty of war, and while all this might mean total disruption in the locker room, I have faith that there’s enough talent in there to at least compete with Green Bay. Besides, this spread is simply too damn big. Playing in Chicago, where the hatred for all things Green Bay is substantial, the Packers opened by laying a whopping 6 ½ points. Green Bay has beaten one team on the road by that much this season: the Tennessee Titans, and let’s be fair, everyone does that to the Titans. Bears must show up this weekend. If not, they’ll start from scratch and I’m not quite sure they’re ready to do that. Da Bears plus da points.
$10 on Louisiana State Tigers at Florida Gators (+4 ½)
I have no other reason to choose Florida, my alma mater, this week other than the fact that I’ll be up there with old college buddies. LSU is coming off a horrendous beatdown at the hands of Alabama. The Gators hope to see the return of DJ Lagway. The Gators continue to apply bandages to their collection of injured players. Meanwhile, the Tigers egos are bruised after that beatdown they received to the hands of Alabama last week. Either way, I’ll be watching this game with some good friends up in good old Gainesville this weekend where despite the outcome, we all stick together in all kinds of weather. Florida plus the points.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Penn State Nittany Lions (-27.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
Why pick Penn State on the road this week? It’s mostly because of how bad the Boilermakers are. Purdue (1-8) has lost eight straight games, including six by double digits and four by five touchdowns or more. Yikes. Facing teams ranked in the top ten (Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Oregon), Purdue has been outscored 146-7. Double yikes. Purdue ranks 120th in total offense and 122nd in total defense. Triple yikes. Now, Purdue gets to face the explosive Penn State offense that ranks 22nd in College Football (444.7 ypg) and averages 6.89 yards per play (8th). This train may never leave the station. Nittany Lions cover on the road.
$40: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
Pouncing on the line early helps, as Green Bay is now favored by 5 1/2 points. There’s turmoil and drama this week in Chicago. Bears OC Shane Waldron was fired. There are rumors that Chicago veterans were calling for Caleb Williams to be benched. The Bears have lost three straight. In those games, Williams was sacked 18 times, including nine times last week (vs New England). Williams last had a touchdown pass on October 13th (vs Jacksonville). The natives are getting restless, especially after seeing how well #2 pick Jayden Daniels has been playing in Washington. Enter the rival Packers and a defense that has allowed 13 passing TD’s in 9 games (with 10 INT). Green Bay covers on the road.
$30: Tennessee Volunteers (+11) at Georgia Bulldogs
Carson Beck has thrown nine interceptions over his last four games. Facing stronger teams like Ole Miss, Texas, and Alabama, Beck has thrown 3 TD and 7 INT combined in those games. The Bulldogs have their backs against the wall and any additional losses could mean no playoff. Now, Beck and Georgia will face Tennessee (5th in total defense, allowing 271.6 yards per game). Tennessee’s pass defense has more interceptions (8) than passing TD’s allowed this season (6). We know the talent that Georgia has, but this is a chance for Tennessee to make a statement. This game should be close. Give me Tennessee and the points on the road.
$20: Cleveland Browns (-1) at New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans defense is bad – and now the Saints no longer have Marshon Lattimore. New Orleans has allowed the fifth most yards (3,856). This includes the fourth most through the air (2,446) and fifth most on the ground (1,410). Nick Chubb has 42 carries through his first three games and had an extra week to rest. This could be his breakout game of the season. Cleveland QB Jameis Winston has been solid since replacing Deshaun Watson. Facing Baltimore’s weaker pass defense two weeks ago, Winston threw for 334 yards and had 3 TD. For these reasons and more, the Browns cover on the road.
$10: LSU Tigers (-4) at Florida Gators
The Swamp isn’t quite as intimidating when the Gators have the 100th ranked defense on the field. Doors open for opponents to score and many have. Facing five ranked teams this season, four teams have scored 33 points or more against the Gators (Miami, Texas A&M, Texas, and Georgia). Enter the ranked LSU Tigers, losers of two straight. Now, the losses were also against ranked teams (Texas A&M and Alabama). Florida may have a few key players coming back from injury, but that remains up in the air. Overall, the Tigers will be focused and ready to get back on track. LSU covers on the road.
Special Guest: Darrell Harden’s Picks (Career 9-6, +$130)
Hi hello. I’m back with yet another round of picks for TWHS and SportsChump. It’s an honor – seriously – to be invited back again. Last year’s picks didn’t go as well as I would have liked, so I’m going to ignore the fact that last year happened and remind everyone that, two years ago, I was a perfect five-for-five on my picks and seriously regret not having put money on those picks. That’s water under the bridge, though. Let’s get into this year’s slate of picks, coming from both the NFL and college football slates of games.
$50: Kansas Jayhawks at BYU Cougars (-2.5)
BYU is putting together an amazing season in the Big XII, and I think it’s time to give them some respect for it. Instead, they’re slight home favorites against a 3-6 Kansas team that has disappointed this season. I expect BYU’s offense to put up plenty of points, especially in a home game, and to easily cover the slim 2.5-point margin.
$40: Tennessee Volunteers (+10.5) at Georgia Bulldogs
Carson Beck takes a lot of the blame for Georgia’s looking like only a very good team this year. The turnovers have been a problem, but the defense has been suspect at times, too, giving up 28 and 41 points in the Bulldogs’ two losses this season (and 31 more points to SEC minnows Mississippi State). Enter Tennessee, who has been winning with defense and a powerful running attack. Tennessee may not be able to maintain their streak of holding opponents under 20 points, but I think their defense is good enough to keep them in the game, especially if ball security continues to be a problem for Georgia.
$30: Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13)
I live in Michigan and, while the Lions aren’t my team of choice, it’s hard not to be amazed by what’s happening at Ford Field. In the midst of their best start since the 1950s, the Lions have proven they can beat you in a lot of ways. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, the defense has been able to rise to whatever occasion is placed in front of them. Even though they are huge favorites, I’ll give the points and take the Lions to continue their hot streak and win decisively against a reeling Jacksonville team.
$20: Syracuse Orange (+9) at California Golden Bears
Somehow, this is an Atlantic Coast Conference matchup. Once you’re done thinking about that, we can look at the game. Syracuse has put together a pretty good season, sitting at 7-3. Cal started well, even getting a visit from College Gameday, but have ridden a bit of a roller coaster to a 5-4 record. Syracuse plays most of their games close, and I think they’ll find a way to keep it close against Cal.
$10: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2)
I’m a low-key Swiftie, as I demonstrated in a prior edition of my picks for these illustrious
gentlemen, and she’s all in for Kansas City. Before I was a Swiftie, though, I was a Bills fan. My heart provides all the analysis that I need here. Bills by a hundred.
