The playoff picture in both college and pro ball is becoming clearer… and by that, I mean, we still have no earthly idea who will be traveling where to play whom. By beating Kansas City last week, Buffalo narrowed the gap for the AFC one-seed, and let’s not forget about the 8-3 Pittsburgh Steelers. After those three, you have seven or so teams vying for the final remaining four playoff spots.
Over in the NFC, as dominant as the Lions have been, they don’t have things wrapped up by a longshot. The Philadelphia Eagles have finally started to play some football and are 8-2. After that, the NFC is anybody’s ball game. We have as many as eleven teams legitimately vying for five playoff spots.
With regards to college football, in the words of Tony Soprano, fuhgeddaboutit!
It’s Week 12 and all these games are getting increasingly important, and increasingly more difficult to call.
Statistically, we should have a large enough sample size to make educated decisions about our wagers, as well as a large enough sample size of teams that have nothing but draft position to play for. So, who is going to try is the question we must ask ourselves.
I reunited with this week’s celebrity guest over LSU-Florida weekend, and it was damn good to see him (more on that in an upcoming post).
Heavy D has been one of the steadier gamblers in this contest, resting comfortably in the Top Five. Let’s see if he can stay there.
As for me, I’ll take…
$50 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Over 41)
I’m surprised this is one of the lower numbers on the board. The Buccaneers are coming off a bye, which was the ideal time for this team to take a break. They stumbled through the difficult part of their schedule and should be getting Mike Evans back from the hamstring injury he suffered against Baltimore. Even without him, the Buccaneers were able to move the ball and put up points. Even though they lost four straight games, they were still able to score against decent defenses. The New York Giants do not have a decent defense. In fact, they don’t have much of a decent anything. They benched (actually, CUT!) their starting quarterback for Tommy Devito, a New York fan favorite who hasn’t played since, well, the last time the currently unemployed Danny Dimes rode the pine. This means, Tampa Bay’s defense will have to uncover old film on Devito. (I highly recommend One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and that first season of Taxi.) Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t good either. Don’t be surprised if Devito and the Giants move the ball on Tampa Bay. Devito’s rarely fail auditions. If the Bucs want any shot at making the post-season, this game is among the first they’ll have to take care of, and that means they’ll have to score. Behind Baker Mayfield, they never stop their offensive aggressiveness and since they can’t stop anyone defensively, I like this game to go over 41.
$40 on Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (+3)
There’s something wrong with the Ravens. On paper, they look like one of the most unbeatable teams in the NFL. Then they go out and play the game. They trot Lamar Jackson out there to do his thing, Derrick Henry scores touchdowns at an inhuman pace, and then, for some reason, they sputter. That’s not to mention Justin Tucker can’t get out of his own head. He is 7-13 in field goal attempts of 40-yards or more and the weather’s only going to get worse. The Ravens are facing the meat of their schedule, last week losing to Pittsburgh, this week traveling to the Chargers and next week home to the Eagles. That’s a brutal stretch in which most Ravens fans would really like to see their team compete like they did when they dismantled the Bills. That was a long time ago. The Ravens have dropped two of their last four. Back-to-back weeks facing the league’s two best defenses when you’re already struggling is concerning for all those who penciled the Ravens into the Super Bowl. I need to see a little more consistency before I have them knocking off the Chargers in SoFi as I’ve seen nothing lately to prove to me that they’re ready to turn this around. Los Angeles is clicking right now, Justin Herbert is being mentioned in the MVP conversation, and the Chargers are in the middle of a turnaround that nobody in Los Angeles expected. They’re just playing better football. The Harbaugh brothers meet again. I’m going with the team that’s on the incline and getting points rather than the one headed in the opposite direction. Chargers follow the Tomlin blueprint on what it takes to stop Lamar, leading the Ravens further into a tailspin right when they want to be peaking. I’ll take the Chargers plus the three until the Ravens can prove they can stop a solid offense and score on a solid defense.
$30 on Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1)
When I think of Cardinals-Seahawks, I think popcorn and not as in Terrell Owens get your popcorn ready for this shootout, which promises to be a good one. No, I mean popcorn popping for both these teams for you never know what to expect, and you can include the other two NFC West teams in the mix for good measure. This is the NFL’s most evenly matched division with first place, and last, still up for grabs. The Cardinals stroll into Seattle hot on a four-game winning streak, their offense as explosive (and as inconsistent) as we expected. The Seahawks, also with a division title in sights, came off a bye to beat San Fran on the road. This game is a coin toss; I like a shootout. I’m inclined to bet the over 47 ½ but instead I’m taking Seattle to cover the lone point at home. These two teams will play again in two weeks in Arizona so if Seattle has any plans to contend for this division, which they showed they’re interested in doing last week against San Francisco, Sunday would be a good time to start. A win combined with a Rams loss vaults Seattle back into first place in the NFC West. Since this division is the equivalent of As The World Turns, we’d expect nothing other than unpredictability to rule until the very end. Seahawks cover the one.
$20 on Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-11)
If I were to tell you at the beginning of the season that Indiana and Ohio State would be playing in Columbus in late November, you’d probably put that spread near four touchdowns and not give the Hoosiers a chance in hell. A funny thing happened on the way to November, however, as the Indiana Hoosiers are ranked fifth in the nation and are, dare I say, undefeated. I don’t remember Indiana football ever being this relevant. The question remains whether they’re for real and whether they can hang with the perennially dominant Buckeyes. These are two of the best offensive and defensive teams in the nation, but are the Hoosiers ready for prime time? A closer look at who they’ve played shows they haven’t quite faced the talent the Buckeyes have. You’ll find no Oregon on their schedule and no Penn State, two teams the Buckeyes had to play. This has been a dream season for the Hoosiers but to expect them to keep things close in Columbus might be a little lofty. Call me crazy but these are games the Buckeyes play week in and week out. The talent in Columbus is just different and this moment for Indiana a little too big. Again, if you gave me Ohio State minus 11 over Indiana at the beginning of the season, I’d take it all day. I’ll take it even knowing what I know now. The Buckeyes remind everyone this weekend why they’re annually national championship contenders and will remind Indiana they’re a basketball school. Ohio State covers.
$10 on Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (Under 40 ½)
Let’s go low here, which I normally don’t like doing but all the trends suggest we do so. Things are starting to get a little brisk in the Midwest and I’m not just referring to the weather. Two teams looking up at the Lions are grossly suffering from offense envy and there’s not much they can do about it. Remember when the Vikings were playing lights out? In their last four games, they’ve scored 23, 12, 21 and 20, respectively. It’s as if they forgot they had Justin Jefferson to throw to or suddenly remembered Sam Darnold was their quarterback. The Bears haven’t fared much better. In their last four games, all losses, they’ve scored 19, 19, 9 and 15. I suppose that explains the losing streak. The Bears played valiantly against Green Bay last week and lost a heartbreaker. All is not lost; they’ll just need to keep things close, which they should. This game has all the makings of a good old NFC North buttholes puckered struggle where points come at a premium. This total has gone under the last five times these two teams have played in Chicago. I say we make it a sixth. Vikings-Bears under 40 ½, about as low as the temperature, as these two teams head into the locker room having not scored much at all.
Celebrity Guest Picks: Heavy D (Career 8-7, +150)
Colorado -2.5 (5)
I have been critical of Deion and the Buffs, but they proved me wrong. I know Kansas is coming off of a big win, but I expect a letdown for a 4-6 team. Colorado is explosive on O. Gimme the Buffs.
Washington (NFL) -10 (4)
Cowboys suck. The end. Go Commanders.
Indiana +13 (3)
I am not sure Indiana wins, but I think it will be close. Talent gap could be a problem as this is easily the best team IU has played this year. Ohio State probably wins by a tuddy.
Florida 10.5 (2)
This is a big game. Ole Miss is fighting for the playoffs and needs a win. DJ Lagway has been great and made the Gator O more dynamic by throwing down the field more than Mertz. The Gators are really hurting on the backend on D with their secondary severely banged up. It limits UF to a lot of zone packages. I think Florida hangs in there for the most part and covers.
Alabama -13.5 (1)
Oklahoma has had a tough time this season in the SEC. Alabama rolling into Norman isn’t going to help. Bama to cover and Bruce Venables gets canned after the season.
The Wife Hates Sports Picks
$50: Detroit Lions (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
The Lions have five wins by double digits this season and I’ve mostly avoided picking them. Oh, you know, if a team puts up 40 or more points in four different games, you start to take additional notice. For the Colts, Anthony Richardson was named the starter again last week, and responded positively. I had a feeling this would happen, which is why I held onto him in Fantasy. But this week, he faces a Lions defense that ranks third in points allowed. Detroit has allowed just 7 TD through the air, which is fewest in the NFL. Add in 14 INT to that stat category, as well. You get where this is going. Richardson has been inconsistent all season and is likely to struggle to keep up with Detroit’s offense. Lions cover on the road.
$40: Colorado Buffaloes (-2.5) at Kansas Jayhawks
OK, guys… let’s go back to Deion while he’s still coaching in College Football. Let’s be honest, it likely won’t be for much longer. Jerry Jones on line one? Anyway, the Jayhawks are coming off back-to-back wins against ranked teams (BYU and Iowa State), so how will they respond? Trifecta time or can Colorado back all the Heisman chatter and the top picks in the draft banter? It’ll come down to Kansas QB Jalon Daniels (13 TD, 10 INT, 65.4 QBR) versus Shedeur Sanders (27 TD, 7 INT, 76.5 QBR) and who is more effective. No major statistics jump out at me favoring either team. It’s just going to come down to star power and the right players stepping up at the right time. Buffaloes cover on the road.
$30: Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
It’s so silly, but this feels like a trap game. It was just last week that everyone was talking about the Chiefs still being undefeated. One loss to the high-octane Bills leading to a road game in Carolina and I’m having questions about the validity of this pick? C’mon… reset, KP! The interesting thing about Kansas City though, is despite the 9-1 record, the Chiefs have been in seven one-score games. SEVEN. But the facts are this: the Panthers have allowed 310 points (2nd most), 5.8 yards per play (4th most), 234 first downs (3rd most), and 1,601 rushing yards (2nd most). Bryce Young is playing better, but he won’t have enough to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs cover on the road.
$20: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10)
It’s one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL, so anything could happen. But the Cowboys have been next level bad. I mean, atrocious and to be honest… it’s just so damn beautiful to see. A banged up Jayden Daniels has been a shell of himself in recent weeks. He’s slowly improving and his effectiveness will be key. Otherwise, it comes down to the run game. Washington has allowed more yards on the ground than any other team (1,655). Meanwhile, Dallas has struggled to run the ball, gaining 817 yards in ten games (2nd fewest in the NFL). That leaves too much on the shoulders of Cooper Rush. In front of a raucous, Dallas-hating crowd, Washington will be motivated. Commanders cover at home.
$10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at New York Giants
Tommy Cutlets is back. Danny Dimes is gone. This could go either way, honestly. A new QB under center can spark a team. Perhaps Daniel Jones wasn’t all that bad (OK, he kinda was), but that doesn’t mean that DeVito will spark the Giants instantly into the win column. Enter my love-hate relationship with picking for or against Baker Mayfield. I never know when the guy is going to surprise me and that can go in either direction. But Baker is Baker and the talent gap of these teams is noticeable. It’ll come down to Mayfield and the Bucs limiting their mistakes. Considering the Giants have just eight takeaways in ten games (3rd fewest in the NFL), I like Tampa Bay’s chances. Bucs cover on the road.
