A funny thing happened on the way to Week 13.
It got cold. Real cold. And so did we.
We all watched that Steelers-Browns game, which rudely brought the official coming of winter. ‘Twas a month before Christmas when Jameis Winston, a kid from small town Alabama, donned a Santa hat, stepped into a snow globe and beat a team that nobody gave him a chance to.
It was all downhill from there, at least for those of us in this contest, as the frigid air blew into our selections for the week. Kevin, Heavy D and I combined to go 5-10 for a -$200, by far our worst outing of the season.
It was bound to happen. We are a combined 92-85-3 against the spread this year, which proves why we’re routinely re-upping our accounts or are shamefully spotted hitting the ATM on an ill-advised gambling bender.
But there are no weeks off. The holidays approach and with them more football games from which to choose.
So, bundle up, children, wager wisely, and let’s get this thing back on track. Our guest this week, Rising Storms, has a successful track record (10-5) and looks to help us do just that.
As for me, let’s have…
$50 on San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (- 6 ½)
While the NFL home office holds morning meetings stressing the importance of parity, what we really have, despite their best efforts, is a top-heavy league. Sure, it looks like the Chiefs can be beat every week and the Eagles have proven they’re iffy at best, but there are only four teams battling for home field advantage throughout the playoffs: Kansas City and Buffalo in the AFC and Detroit and Philly in the NFC. At this point, it is highly unlikely that any other team nabs the top seed in either conference. The Bills know this and are fortunate enough this week to host a San Francisco team that can barely field a starting eleven. The Niners injury report reads like last year’s Pro Bowl participants (Wait, they still have a Pro Bowl?). Last year’s NFC Super Bowl representative is a shell of its former self, and this week must face a Bills team that still hopes to wrestle that top seed away from Kansas City. Having ended the Chiefs perfect season last Sunday, the Bills are riding a six-game winning streak and have scored 30 plus points in five of those last six games. They are in true December form. Tack on some freezing temperatures, something the Bills and their fans inexplicably root for, and the Bills should treat the Niners like their fans treat those fold-up tables. Niners fold, Bills body slam and cover the six-and-a-half.
$40 on Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
What we saw Monday night was what we all feared. When they put it all together, the Baltimore Ravens are downright frightening. They beat a feisty Chargers team on a night where Lamar Jackson only passed for 170 yards. Ya know why? Because they landed a guy named Derrick Henry this off-season who they appear poised to ride all the way to the Super Bowl. Henry ranks second in the league in rushing yards behind only the guy in the opposing backfield this Sunday, Saquon Barkley. These two beasts have been a joy to watch and, having abandoned the dysfunction of New York and Tennessee, have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations with their new employers. Aside from the Detroit Lions, both these teams are playing some of the best football in the league. Philadelphia-Baltimore is your game of the week and, dare I say, a Super Bowl preview. That said, I’m rolling with the home team minus the three. I saw a disturbing statistic the other night. Baltimore is averaging over seven yards a play on offense. If the season ended today, that would be the highest average per play in NFL history. Teams like that are hard to bet against. With the Eagles playing as well as they are, this game will probably land on the number so you may want to tease it down to -2 ½ in real life but since we can’t do that here, I’ll take the Ravens minus the three.
$30 on Seattle Seahawks (-1 ½) at New York Jets
I hate that Week 13 means we’re so close to the season’s end… but if that means no longer having to Facetime with Aaron Rodgers, then let’s press fast forward. Don’t worry, Rodgers Lovers, all three of you, if you can’t get enough of the guy, Netflix is apparently releasing a documentary in his honor next month. As if anyone’s ever said, “Gee, I wish I could get more Aaron Rodgers in my life.” I can’t even imagine how Jets fans feel, having essentially mortgaged their future on a guy who hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since before the day Brett Favre was caught ripping off the underprivileged. The Jets are a laughingstock. After assembling basically every wide receiver he’s every played with, the Jets are somehow bottom seven in in every offensive category known to man. After firing their head coach earlier in the season, their defense has suffered as well. Of course, you can’t beat many teams when you’re only scoring 18 points a game. A few weeks ago, Rodgers almost mustered up a modicum of accountability for this project gone awry but that was fleeting as he quickly pointed the finger towards his teammates and coaching staff. It’s highly unlikely that within this locker room, there’s any motivation to “play with pride” as Rodgers also quipped. Not sure who he was referring to there either. This week, they host the Seahawks, Geno Smith’s former team, and a team that’s in first place in their division with the hopes of making the playoffs. While the ‘Hawks are as inconsistent as the rest of their NFC West counterparts, they’re miles ahead of the Jets. Ernest Jones was a one-man wrecking crew last week, shutting down the Cardinals offense. If he does to Aaron Rodgers on Sunday what he did to the Cards last week, we might see Rodgers limping off the field, probably into a blue tent to watch previews of himself in that upcoming Netflix special. I’ll happily wager on the Seahawks minus the 1 ½ and root for them to put the Jets officially out of their misery in the process.
$20 on Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2)
I’m not sure quite how much money I’ve lost a) betting on the Bengals this season and b) betting against the Steelers but I can assure you it’s a fair amount. So, since the season is headed down the stretch, I figured I’d remain consistent. It’s time to press. The Steelers head to Cincy this week and are coming off an explicable loss to that beautiful snow angel we know as Jameis Winston. Meanwhile, the Bengals are the most talented 4-7 team in NFL history. They’re the 10 seed as of right now and with other AFC teams sniffing a playoff spot, the Bengals can ill afford to drop another game for fear of being eliminated. Their clock is ticking and last week, the Steelers proved their vulnerable. The Bengals take advantage, keep their playoff hopes alive and cover the deuce.
$10 on Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks (-18 ½)
Let’s throw in a little college for kicks and giggles. Dillon Gabriel is going to miss college ball. He’ll soon be in the pros, probably getting paid less than he did in college, maybe starting for an NFL team, maybe not. He’ll get invited to New York City to the Heisman ceremony, a trophy he won’t win. Instead, he’ll pick up another award or two in the process. But one thing he will do this weekend is lead his Oregon Ducks to a perfect, 12-0 undefeated season. The Ducks have been impressive on their run to the playoffs’ top seed. All they have is one more game in Eugene to cap it all off, a night game at that. The emotions will run high and while nerves may set in early, the Ducks should settle down eventually. Look for live wagering if that’s the case. The line is 18 ½ and there’s no reason they shouldn’t cover by the end of the game. I expect the defense to be fired up and give Gabriel every opportunity to do what he does, which is lead an efficient Ducks offense downfield with regularity. Washington has had difficulty with ranked opponents this season, losing badly to Penn State, Indiana and Iowa. Oregon is better than all those teams. Take the Ducks minus 18 ½ in this one as they coast into the playoffs and bid adieu to Dillon Gabriel.
Celebrity Guest Picks: Rising Storms (Career 10-5, +$90)
Well hello there, and happy thanksgiving to everyone out there in Chumpland from all of us sensible enough to live where there are 4 verifiable seasons. It’s pretty festive up here in Motown these days. The Christmas lights have started to get strung around the city, there’s a pleasant chill in the air, and the hometown Detroit Lions are surprisingly relevant going into the holiday season. It’s been just over a year since I left the balmy confines of the southeast for the heart of Big Ten country, and I have much to be thankful for. I am, of course, thankful to be healthy, and stumbling towards a state of happiness. I am thankful to have a great job, working around some really great people. I am thankful for my beautiful girlfriend Heather, who has inexplicably stayed faithfully by my side through all the ups and downs. And, of course I am thankful, so very, very thankful for the New York Football Giants. Your gift of Saquon will truly keep on giving, all year long. But enough about me, let’s pick some games!!
(Please note: This pick was delivered on time) The Detroit Lions have been flat out steamrolling the competition this year, bringing bliss to the city that bleeds Honolulu Blue. They’ve been snakebit on Turkey day as of late, but a visit from the struggling Chicago Bears could be just what the doctor ordered. 9.5 points feels like a lot though. Lions win but the Bears cover.
The Raiders stumble into KC as 12 point underdogs, with a (most likely) pissed off Chiefs team waiting for them at Arrowhead. Vegas gets rolled by the Mahomies, Chiefs cover.
The Tennessee Titans, still flying high following their upset of the Texans, get yanked back down to earth buy a surprisingly good Commanders team looking to rebound from the strangest goddamn 4th quarter in NFL history. The Commies (-5.5) should make easy work of Tennessee.
Few things bring me more joy, or misery, than the Philadelphia Eagles. After enduring the misery of last season’s epic late season collapse, there is a feeling of joy and dare I say, hope, in Philly this year. That’ll happen when you have a guy that can drop three bills on seemingly anyone while hurdling backwards over defensive backs. Next up is the Ravens in a potential Super Bowl preview. Call me a homer, but I’m taking the Iggles and the 2.5
Last up, we have the Iron Bowl. I may live in the land of the Wolverine, the Badger, and the Buckeye, but my heart will always belong to the greatest conference in college athletics. Three years ago I was at Jordan-Hare to witness the epic 4-overtime heartbreaker between the Tide and the Tigers. A few nights ago I watched the epic 4-overtime slugfest between the Tigers and Texas A&M. The Tide looks awfully vulnerable after getting whooped by the Sooners and Auburn has some firepower. Vegas says Bama and 11.5 . I say Auburn shocks the world. Tigers 28 Bama 24
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers (-27.5)
Rivalry games often create unexpected results. Yet, for this one, it feels like a safe bet. Indiana suffered its first loss last week, but the playoff is still very much in their sights. Win and there’s a good chance the Hoosiers shock the world and make the first expanded playoff. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have lost ten straight. Facing top ten teams this season (Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State), Purdue is 0-4 and has been outscored 195-17. That’s next level bad. Indiana ranks 18th in total offense and will face a Purdue defense that ranks 120th in the country, allowing 440.9 yards per game. Again, games on rivalry weekend can surprise, but I just don’t see it in this one. Hoosiers cover at home.
$40: Tennessee Titans (+8) at Washington Commanders
Washington’s offense appears to be in a bit of a funk. Jayden Daniels is getting healthier, but his receivers are dropping more passes in recent weeks. Brian Robinson continues to be banged up and has been limited this week. He’s the bruiser in the Washington run game. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense has allowed 3,040 yards in 11 games. Only the Eagles have allowed fewer yards. I can see the Titans defense slowing down a Commanders offense that has failed with consistency, outside of a five minute fourth quarter flourish against the Cowboys last week. This one should be close. Expect a one score game. Give me the Titans and the points on the road.
$30: Kansas Jayhawks (-1.5) at Baylor Bears
I debated for quite some time on this slot. I nearly took one of the Thanksgiving NFL games. Then I nearly pulled the trigger on the Chargers or the Saints. Finally, I landed on the Jayhawks. Kansas has three straight wins, all over ranked teams. That includes Colorado last week (in commanding fashion). The recent hot streak now puts Kansas within reach of a bowl game. One more win and the Jayhawks will be bowl eligible. Statistically, the teams are close in all major categories. But there’s something about confidence, and Kansas has to have a ton of that right now. Jayhawks cover on the road.
$20: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+20) at Georgia Bulldogs
Yes, I stated that I was going to avoid SEC teams like the plague going forward. Old habits die hard. Again, as I said, rivalry games often create surprising results. We all know what’s at stake for the Bulldogs. So let’s just look at the history of the rivalry. Georgia has won 19 of the last 22 games in the rivalry. During that span, the Bulldogs were ranked in 14 of the years. Fifteen of those games were inside 20 points and eleven were one score games. Georgia Tech (7-4) is a good team. The Yellow Jackets rank inside the top 50 in both total offense and defense. I’m not calling upset here, but inside three touchdowns? Absolutely, especially with a heated rivalry. Give me the Yellow Jackets and the points on the road.
$10: Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Aidan O’Connell will start for Las Vegas. The Raiders are dead last in the NFL in rushing (821 yards in 11 games), so O’Connell will have his hands full, considering no offensive balance. But this pick is more about the Chiefs. Kansas City is 10-1, yes… but the Chiefs have been in one score games in all but two of their games. I’m a data and trends guy, so I do lean on that stat rather heavily. Then it comes to O’Connell and the rivalry itself. O’Connell played in 11 games last season (12 TD, 7 INT). That included two games against the Chiefs. He’s played in four games this season. Three of the last five games in the rivalry have been one score games. Give me the Raiders and the points on the road.
