I’ve been treading water this year.
In fact, silly me came up a visual of Kevin, all bearded, tanned and bone skinny, managing to find his way off the desert island of this year’s difficult picks while SportsChump, his deflated little volleyball, a few stringy hairs, floating off into the great beyond, never to be heard from again. Well, at least the lost at sea metaphor is accurate.
Year to date, our picks aren’t that far off but the monies wagered have been my demise. Here are our updated standings:
The Wife Hates Sports 36-27-2 $440
SportsChump 34-30-1 $100
Celebrity Guests 31-34 -$150
Down $340 with only five weeks remaining, perhaps I’ll ask my counterpart for an air pump to fill my spirits, or at least a lift off the island.
Until then, let’s wager…
$50 on Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)
I can’t believe I’m betting on this game. I have officially sunk to new lows. This would never happen, but the NFL should institute a strict Game-You’re-Not-Allowed-To-Gamble-On policy each week simply because the teams are so bad. This week’s game between the 3-9 Tennessee Titans and the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars is that game. These two teams are horrible. After the Panthers, who are least playing better of late, the Jags and Titans are tied for the second-worst point differentials in the league (-111). That means these two poor excuses for a franchise have combined to be beaten by over 222 points in the 24 games they’ve played. I’m no mathlete but that means they’re losing every game by almost ten per outing. I hope they’re serving plenty of beer up in Nashville as that will be the only way to enjoy this one. Will Levis is still slated as Tennessee’s starter but at this point, they must be eyeballing who’s coming up in next year’s draft. In other words, Levis might be playing for his job. On the other sidelines, Trevor Lawrence took a brutal hit last week, ending his season. Here’s hoping that concussion leads him to believe this season never happened. As this is a divisional rivalry, the Titans might want to kick the Jags while they’re down. It’s not like Jacksonville can do anything to stop them. They’re dead last in the league in yards allowed per game. Surprisingly, the Titans rank second in the NFL, allowing 100 fewer yards per game. That’s all I need to know. Jags can’t move the ball; Titans will be effective in ensuring that doesn’t happen. Levis will get enough chances to ensure their offense sees the red zone. The game is in Tennessee. We keep waiting for the Jags to turn things around, but they won’t, because they suck. Despite their shittiness, the Titans should do enough to cover the three.
$40 on Chicago Bears (+4 ½) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are waving the white flag, throwing in the towel or whatever sports cliché you want to use to signify that their season is over. Losers of three straight, this has been one of the unluckiest seasons in their franchise history. Last week, they lost Christian McCaffrey to a PCL injury, not that it would have mattered. They’ve just experienced too many injuries to remain competitive. The Bears, on the other hand, fired their coach after an inexplicable Thanksgiving Day blunder that saw them run the clock out when they were in field goal range to tie the game. Eberflus the coop, which is a shame because it appeared they were starting to play hard for him. They’d lost their last three games by a combined seven points, but it’s the NFL and you can’t blatantly give away games which is what Matt Eberflus did. The Bears are getting six in San Fran, but the Niners haven’t beaten an opponent by more than six since Week Six. Losers of six, the Bears have been in their last three games against the best three teams in their division. The Niners might still have enough live bodies to pull this thing out but I’m not sure how they’re going to be able to muster enough offense to cover the six points when they can’t score. They’re averaging 12 points a game in their last three. I’m taking the visiting game and the points as Caleb Williams continues to hone his craft and break his team’s losing streak for their new interim head coach.
$30 on Atlanta Falcons (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
Remember back when the Minnesota Vikings started out the season 5-0 and we were all shocked and surprised? The best wide receiver in the league, Justin Jefferson, fell to me at tenth in my fantasy draft. That’s because nobody in their right mind felt that Sam Darnold could fill in for Kirk Cousins. They figured wrong. Darnold is doing just fine in Minnesota despite cooling off from their hot start. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions last week against the ball-hawking Chargers leading overreactors to wonder whether the Falcons made the right move paying him all that money. This week, Cousins returns home to Minnesota in what will be an emotional game for all involved. After all, he played six seasons in a purple uniform and had a fair amount of success there. Unfortunately for him, while not exactly Charger-like, the Vikings are playing good defense. They rank top five in points allowed per game. It’s made up for their lack of offense that hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, scoring 30 points only once since Week Four. The Vikings are still winning games, they’re an impressive 10-2, but they’re not blowing people out. Their last five wins are only by a combined 27 points. This week, they’re laying six to a team that is leading its division by a hair and must turn things around if they have any hopes of winning the NFC South. This line is skewed because we saw Cousins dish out a hearty bowl of turnover soup last week but that won’t happen again. He’s too good a quarterback to roll over against a team he played six seasons for. Atlanta might not be able to pull off a victory (or they might) but I’m willing to gamble Cousins’ fellow Falcons lay it all on the line for their quarterback. I’ll take Atlanta plus six.
$20 on Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
I don’t know what’s going on with the Las Vegas Raiders and I don’t care to know. Not even partial ownership from Tom Brady can save them now. I can’t name the Raiders starting quarterback and I’m not even sure they know. (Note: I spoke to Raiders fans this weekend. Can confirm they don’t know.) The Raiders are tied for the worst record in the league with Jacksonville and the Giants and it’s time to start thinking about draft position. There’s no reason at all for them to win this game in Tampa nor is there any reason for them to try. Even though this year’s college draft features no clear-cut number one and no quarterback that can immediately turn around a franchise, a shot at the number one pick is still desirable. Raiders brass, despite traditionally being out of touch with reality, understands winning this game is not something you want to do even though the last time they had a number one pick, they went with JaMarcus Russell. Meanwhile, the Bucs have plenty to play for. With the Falcons facing a difficult opponent, the Bucs go into this game knowing a win, combined with a Falcons loss, puts them back in first place in the NFC South. While they won’t take the Raiders lightly, they should still pull off the win. The question is the cover. Baker Mayfield isn’t 100% but look for him to start and target Mike Evans early and often in pursuit of not only a win but for the opportunity for Big Mike to continue his consecutive seasons streak of 1,000 receiving yards. Bucs minus the six.
$10 on Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 45)
As I mentioned, there will be plenty of scoreboard watching in Tampa Bay this weekend, which means the Bucs will release the hounds. The problem is, they still can’t stop anybody. What we have in Tampa this Sunday is a meeting between two of the worst defenses in the league. Both teams rank bottom eight in points allowed. With someone on Bucs payroll paid specifically to keep an eye on that Falcons-Vikings game, look for offensive coordinator Liam Coen to keep his pedal to the medal. Don’t be surprised when you hear his name mentioned in future job openings. The same can’t be said for Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers who, as co-defensive coordinators, can’t seem to plug the holes on Tampa’s sinking ship. Ever since that win over Philadelphia, the Bucs have allowed opponents to score 20 or more points in seven of their last eight games. The over/under is 46. The Bucs should put up 28 which means the Raiders will only need to score twice, which they will. Give me this shootout over 45.
Celebrity Guest Picks: Brother Bill (Career 6-9, -$30)
Here are my picks, Chris. Thanks again for having me in the rotation.
Welcome to conference championship week.
The conferences have all been jumbled, such that we may have as many as 4 teams win the championship of a major conference in their first year as a member. The interloping winners could be:
Oregon – Big Ten
Texas – SEC
SMU – ACC
Arizona State – Big 12.
My picks are all college championship games.
$50 – SEC Championship. Texas – 2.5 vs Georgia. Give me Georgia + 2.5. The Bulldogs already beat the Longhorns in Texas, I like them to win in Atlanta.
$40 – MWC Championship. UNLV @ Boise State (-4). I’ll take Boise on the home blue field minus the 4 points.
$30 – Big Ten Championship. Oregon – 3.5 vs Penn State. I’ll take Oregon minus the 3.5. I think that the Ducks are better, stronger, faster (like the Six Million Dollar Man)
$20 – MAC Championship. Miami – 1.5 vs Ohio. This is a sentimental pick. My wife Janette is a Miami University alumna. Give me the RedHawks – 1.5 over the Bobcats.
$10 – Big 12 Championship. Arizona State -2 vs Iowa State. The Sun Devils seem to be on a hot streak. I’ll take them -2.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)
This division scares me when picking spreads. Last week, the Titans were getting throttled by Washington, only to charge back and make the game interesting for most of the second half. Jacksonville, meanwhile, lost Trevor Lawrence for the season. Home field is obviously an advantage for Tennessee. But statistically, take a look at total yards. Jacksonville has allowed more yards than any other team (4,551). On the flip side, the Titans have allowed the second fewest total yards (3,040). That’s a monstrous difference and enough for me to comfortably take Tennessee. Titans cover at home.
$40: Penn State Nittany Lions at Oregon Ducks (-3.5)
The Nittany Lions are in the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016. If you read TWHS regularly, you’ll know I’m very much a data and trends guy. Everyone knows James Franklin’s record in big games and facing highly ranked teams. It’s not great – and that’s being kind. Enter the #1 ranked Ducks. If Oregon takes away Tyler Warren or minimizes his impact, that will be a huge advantage. Oregon, meanwhile, is loaded at WR. But ultimately, this game will be won in the trenches. Oregon is 6th in sacks (39), while Penn State is 27th (32). As for sacks allowed, Penn State has allowed 11 (7th) and Oregon has allowed 12 (11th). But Penn State is also dealing with multiple injuries on the O-line. Ducks cover.
$30: Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Josh Allen versus Matthew Stafford is an enticing QB matchup and this should be a fun one. We will see if and how the travel impacts the Bills. Probably not much. These guys are pros. Buffalo’s 21 takeaways are fifth most in the NFL, so Stafford and the Rams will have to play a clean game. For L.A., it’s been an up and down season. Facing current playoff teams, the Rams are 1-3. That includes losses to the Eagles, Lions, and Packers. Their only win came against the Vikings at home. But Minnesota – while a great team – is not one that has an x-factor as impactful as Josh Allen. Bills cover on the road.
$20: Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
Hey, it’s not a primetime game, so Kirk Cousins has that going for him, right? Over the last three weeks, Cousins has 0 TD and 6 INT’s. In 11 games, the Vikings have allowed 17 passing TD’s and tallied up 16 interceptions. Minnesota’s sixteen picks are the most in the NFL. Not the right opponent for a struggling Kirk Cousins. The Falcons may need to rely on Bijan Robinson heavily to control the clock. Robinson has 20 or more carries in just three games, although that includes two in the last three weeks. Both of those games were 100-yard rushing games. But he’ll face a Vikings defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league this year (822). Vikings cover at home.
$10: Carolina Panthers (+13.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
It feels strange to say it, but people are sleeping on the Panthers. Since being benched, Bryce Young is a different player. He has more confidence and poise. Sure, there’s a big talent gap here, and you have to favor the Eagles at home, but by two touchdowns? I’m not so sure. Carolina’s last four games have been by three points or less. Two of them being wins over the Saints and Giants. The two losses were to the Chiefs in regulation and the Bucs in overtime. A late Hubbard fumble kept Carolina from a third win in four games. The key will be how Carolina’s run defense (2nd most yards allowed) can handle Philly’s rushing offense (2,267 yards – 2nd most). Give me the Panthers and the points on the road.
