There’s a Seinfeld episode where Elaine complains to her cohorts about skinny mirrors. You know the one. She tries on an outfit at a store, looks in the mirror to find it fits nicely, buys it, only to bring it home, try it on and find out it fits horribly.
That’s my season in a nutshell.
Last week, I was convinced the Falcons would play inspired football for their quarterback and give the Minnesota Vikings a challenge. They didn’t. Kirk Cousins continued to look old and even worse, inaccurate. He now leads the league in interceptions. I was convinced the Bears, who had been playing well lately but still losing, would get off their snide, win one for their interim head coach and handle a depleted 49ers team. They didn’t. The Bears losing streak continues, the franchise remains directionless. I was convinced the Titans would play well enough to beat the lowly 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars who had nothing to play for. They didn’t. The Titans are downright horrible.
Skinny mirrors. It’s pretty much been like that for me all season long. I feel like I’m at my local state fair, walking into one of those rickety rides surrounded by misleading mirrors all giving me bad advice, unable to find a way out. The picks look good at first glance, but clearly, I didn’t look close enough.
If only I could find my receipt.
This week’s celebrity guest is funny man Bobby Kady who is on spring break in Mexico, or something like that. Anyway, he promised to drink some tap water and send his picks while in the loo, where he’ll have enough time to analyze betting lines and avoid mirrored walls at all costs. You’re welcome for the visual.
Speaking of picks that have so far been full of shit, let’s have…
$50 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2 ½)
I hate to do this. I really do. Aside from peace on earth and good will towards man, I want nothing more this Christmas than to see my Buccaneers make the playoffs, but I’m not convinced they can go into Los Angeles and steal a win. Yes, I know they won in Detroit, handing the Lions their only loss of the season so far. I also know that the Bucs have beaten both the Commanders and the Eagles. But this team is hanging on by a thread health-wise and, more troubling, we’ve seen Baker Mayfield become a little too interception happy. After going three straight games without throwing a pick, he’s thrown four in his last two. SoFi is not a place you want to go tossing the ball around willy nilly, at least not when the Chargers are playing there. The Bolts are third in the league in turnover ratio. I love what the Bucs have done this season. They’re back in first place in the NFC South and this is the only tough game remaining on their schedule. They play hard and occasionally, incisive football. But as banged up as they are on both ends of the ball, I’m not sure they have enough to travel across the country and topple the Chargers who are also fighting for their playoff lives. I look for Justin Herbert to make mincemeat out of this Buccaneers secondary which ranks 30th in the league. Chargers cover the two and a half.
$40 on Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4)
Speaking of solid defensive teams that are fighting for their playoff lives, the Denver Broncos are coming off a bye and hosting the Indianapolis Colts. Anthony Richardson is struggling. He is dead last in the NFL in completion percentage, the only starting quarterback below 50%. And that’s playing in the worst division in football. Imagine if he played in the AFC North! In what is essentially still his rookie season, Richardson’s inability to pass the ball with any accuracy has made this offense predictable. The Broncos defense will feed off that. They remain one of the stingiest defenses in the league. Their ability to stop the run should stifle Jonathan Taylor, who has also been relatively un-Taylor-like this season. Defensively, Indy’s inability to stop the run means Denver should have a field day controlling the clock. This line is too low. Denver presents too many challenges on both sides of the ball. Lay the four.
$30 on Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos (Under 44 ½)
I know we’ve already talked about the Colts’ passing struggles, but I looked at the over/under in the Colts/Broncos game 44 ½ (which for some reason has moved up from 43) and wondered how the Colts will be able to score against Denver if Richardson can’t complete a pass. I got to thinking who was the Colt’s leader in receptions this season. It’s Josh Downs if you didn’t know. Don’t beat yourself up. I didn’t know that either. Downs has 53 catches, which is good for 38th in the league, which means, among the 32 teams in the league, the Colts don’t even have their top guy in the top 32. Indy ranks bottom eight in the league in passing yards this season and Joe Flacco, who started six games, has almost half of them. In other words, if Denver controls this game as I think they will, they’ll ground and pound with the Colts unable to score much. Remember, they’re only scoring 20 a game and they play in a crappy division. When they played against good defenses, like Detroit’s or Minnesota’s, they didn’t do much, scoring only 19 points combined in those two games. Take this game to go under and if you can find a Time of Possession prop, load up on the Broncos.
$20 on Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Cleveland Browns
C’mon, now. Let’s not get carried away. Way too much has been made of the Chiefs’ struggles for their third straight championship, and rightfully so. Their wins read like a laundry list of Christmas miracles. So, is the glass half empty or half full? Is this team just scraping by or are they just doing what it takes to win, saving their best stuff for when it matters most? Want an example of how little faith the betting public has in KC? They are only four-point favorites over the lowly Browns and the line opened at six, meaning people are finally betting against them! People are still high on what Jameis has done, but what Jameis has done is throw a lot of interceptions. Winston has thrown six picks in his last three games against decent defenses, and the Chiefs have a decent defense. They are one of only seven teams allowing under 20 points a game. Despite being eliminated, the Browns will always play to win when Jameis is their quarterback, but the optometrist excuse is no longer viable. Jameis is the only one who doesn’t see it. I know I’m betting against a trend but I’m not even expecting KC’s offense to light up Cleveland. I just don’t think Winston can complete enough passes to his wide receivers without turning the ball over. The line is small. The Chiefs are infinitely better than the woeful Browns. Cleveland will try to pull off the upset but it’s a tough ask. Chiefs minus four.
$10 on Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-1 ½)
This line intrigues me. We just saw the Buffalo Bills do something no other team in the history of the NFL had ever done. Score six touchdowns, not turn the ball over once… and lose the football game. This week, they play Detroit, the league’s scariest team, at least offensively, and Vegas can’t set this over/under high enough. One can only surmise they’re expecting another Bills-Rams-like shoot out as the number is 54 ½. Not sure we’ve seen a number that high this season. But the spread is only Detroit -1 ½, which essentially means despite Detroit’s success, Vegas thinks Buffalo is the better team. I’m not entirely convinced that’s the case. Detroit has scored more points than anyone in the league and their point differential is 54 points better than Buffalo, who is in second place in that category. This is, potentially, a battle between MVP candidates although I don’t feel Jared Goff is getting the MVP love he deserves (8th in passing yards, 5th in touchdowns, 2nd in QBR and completion percentage). I like the Lions here. They have more to play for, with the Vikings and Packers breathing down their division necks and the Eagles looking to steal away that top seed. The Bills have their AFC East title wrapped up and are a full two games behind the Chiefs for the top seed. This line suggests the Bills go into Detroit and steal one, but I don’t see it. With high point spreads all season, the Lions are still 9-4 ATS. I like the Lions defending their home turf, so I’ll go with my own personal MVP candidate, Jared Goff and company, to cover the lone point and a half at home.
Celebrity Guest Bobby Kady’s Picks from South of the Border (Career 6-8-1, -$40)
After going completely DEFEATED in my picks last year, I am looking for a strong rebound. But maybe the move is just to parlay the opposite of all my favorites this week into a big winner as I was truly that bad.
1. $50 Bills @ Lions (Over 54.5)
– I see a similar track meet to what both encountered in the previous week. The Lions have turned their gameplan in to outpacing the opponent with injuries on D mounting up. Going for it on 4th will be on display, even on their own respective sides of the field.
2. $40 Cowboys @ Panthers (CAR -3)
– I have made some good money on the Panthers lately and Vegas seems to be catching up. I look at this as a pick em with the visiting team getting 3, but I can’t go against what I’ve seen lately. Carolina is a different team from the first half of the season, I have a soft spot for Bryce, and Canales has the boys buzzin’.
3. $30 Steelers @ Eagles (PIT +5.5)
– This is a simple case of me taking Mike Tomlin with that many points. The Eagles somehow have the most turmoil internally that a 11-2 team has ever had, granted most of it seems media generated. Pittsburgh is great against the run, hopefully countering the explosive runs. I expect a close one in the Keystone State.
4. $20 Ravens @ Giants (Giants +16)
– I know, I know. The Giants are terrible. The Ravens are explosive. But it’s the NFL. And it’s 16 points. Hoping the Giants back door this cover.
5. Bills @ Lions (Bills +2.5)
– In reality, I’ll tease this up to 3.5 points. I’m, once again, using an analytic approach with the law of averages kicking in. The Bills coming off a loss, Lions a win, and Detroit keeps playing with fire. Gimme Josh Allen to cement the MVP, and find a way. I will probably sprinkle a few shekels on the Bills ML too.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Washington Commanders (-6) at New Orleans Saints
The “Commander-skins” are coming off a bye and have had time to get healthy. That includes Marshon Lattimore, who will play in his first game in Washington (against his former team). Derek Carr is out and Jake Haener will start. Who? The New Orleans defense has allowed the fourth most yards (4,946) and second most yards per play (5.9). Now, they face an explosive and balanced attack that features the likes of Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, and more. But with Lattimore playing, Mike Sainristil should be able to shift to a different spot, making the secondary stronger. Facing a newbie in Haener, I like Washington’s chances, especially with Daniels under center. Commanders cover on the road.
$40: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Titans laid an egg for me last week, facing the hapless Jaguars at home. How about this week facing an underperforming Bengals team that still has an explosive offense? We know what Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and the crew can produce on the field. What’s interesting about the Titans is that they have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL this season (2,282 in 13 games). But checking Tennessee’s schedule during the season, I like Cincinnati’s receivers to be able to take care of business in Nashville. Bengals cover on the road.
$30: Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles Bills
The battle for PA is always fun. Two great organizations and two very strong teams. It’s for sure going to be a battle. So what about the line? Up front, my gut wants to know how the Eagles have handled teams in general and also how Pittsburgh has handled the run. The Eagles have won nine straight, this much is true. But of those nine wins, five have been by one score or less. That includes the last two against the Ravens and Panthers. Both teams are in the NFL’s top six in total yards allowed (the Eagles have allowed the fewest). With a chance for rain and cooler temps, I expect a defensive battle and a closer game. Therefore, give me the Steelers and the points on the road.
$20: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Cleveland Browns
As I’ve said recently, the Chiefs are almost always caught in close games, so this line isn’t that much of a surprise to me. But it’s still the Browns, despite the home field. For me, the first thought is to check takeaways, because we know Jameis Winston is good for a pick six or two on occasion. The Chiefs rank much lower than I would expect in takeaways, but they still have Patrick Mahomes. The Browns are 3-10 and six of their losses have been by more than one score. I’m not going to say much else here. Chiefs cover on the road.
$10: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
The first match of this rivalry ended as a three-point game, but this time, the Vikings have home field. Caleb Williams has had moments in his rookie season, especially with the newer OC in place. Despite seven straight losses, Williams hasn’t thrown an interception in any of those games. However, he has been sacked 36 times during that same stretch. Yikes. Minnesota is 4th in the NFL in total sacks, with 40 on the season. On the flip side, Sam Darnold has 11 TD and 0 INT over his last four games combined. It’s a divisional rivalry, but Minnesota has the clear advantage. Vikings cover at home.
