We’ll keep this week’s intro short and sweet as we’re all probably recovering from quality time spent with family while simultaneously fearing that next Amazon statement. Fortunately, we have multiple, consecutive days of glorious football to keep us occupied.
This weekend is loaded with playoff implications. Kudos to the NFL schedulers, those perennial purveyors of parity, for keeping us guessing up until the season’s final weeks.
This week’s celebrity guest is The Barber who has gone an overwhelming 13-2 these last three years. A solid week can vault him into first place for bragging rights.
As for me, with so much left on the line, I still have faith enough to put…
$50 on Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
We picked the Bengals profitably last week as Cool Joe Burrow continues to Bu-dazzle. We’ll see if it’s all for naught. Despite playing for a team that remains under .500, Burrow leads the NFL in completions, passing yardage and passing touchdowns. The only thing those accomplishments will earn him is an asterisk in those stat columns and an early flight home if they don’t result in a post-season berth. This week, they host the Broncos, one of the teams fighting for the very same playoff spot. The Broncos, Chargers, Colts, Dolphins and Bengals are all jockeying for the final two post-season berths in the AFC. In this matchup, it’s as simple as offense versus defense. The Bengals have won their last three, but even in their three losses before that, were putting scoreboards on tilt. Denver ranks top ten in yards allowed, and top five in points allowed, per game. So, which do I have more faith in? The Bengals offense or the Broncos defense? Burrow has been on too much of a tear lately not to ride the hot hand. He has thrown no fewer than three touchdowns a game… in his last seven games. Cincy is only laying three. With their season on the line and a victory over the Broncos a big step in the right direction, I’ll take the home team minus the field goal.
$40 on Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-3 ½)
The Falcons wrestled away the lead in the NFC South last week with a win and a Buccaneers loss. They also wrestled away Kirk Cousins’ starting spot. The old man had been struggling so the Falcons decided to give young Michael Penix, Jr. an opportunity. He fared well, or at least well enough, as the Falcons dismantled the lowly New York Giants. Traveling to Washington will be an entirely different test for the rookie, where he’ll be squaring off against the real rookie of the year. Jayden Daniels all but sealed ROY honors by leading his Commanders to a late victory over the Eagles last Sunday, but the Commanders haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot. They’re eyeballing that seven-seed but could climb even higher with a Green Bay loss this weekend. While the Falcons desperately need this win to keep up with the Buccaneers, asking Penix to go into Washington and pull off a victory against Dan Quinn is simply too tall a task, especially with Washington still looking to lock up that playoff spot. I’m surprised the line is only three-and-a-half. Again, the smart play here is Washington money line but I’m also okay with laying the points or even buying a few more in the opposite direction if I may be so bold. Commies cover.
$30 on BYU Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes (-2 ½)
This is the last time we’re going to see Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter play football in a Colorado uniform. In fact, I’m astonished they’re even playing in this game. With both likely to go top five in the draft, if not top two, they have signed the largest disability insurance policy college football has ever seen, just in case one of them turns an ankle. Look for their insurance agent in the stands. He’ll be the one with armpit stains under his shirt sweating a potential, multi-million-dollar payout. So why would those two future stars play in a meaningless game with such lucrative NFL futures ahead of them? I suppose it’s because it means something to them, one final shot to play for dad. Heck, I’m surprised Deion didn’t just tell them to sit this one out. But since they’re playing, and probably wanting to leave their mark, there’s simply no way I can’t take Colorado and lay the points. Personally, and I know I’m in the minority here, I think Colorado should have been invited to the playoffs just to mix things up. Heck, college football pretty much does whatever it wants anyway so why not include them in their top 12? Alas, their record didn’t justify it. That’s not to say the talent on this team couldn’t have challenged some of the big boys still playing. BYU had a solid season, but I predict too many fireworks from Shedeur’s last stand. I love this game over (55) and I love Colorado minus the 2 ½.
$20 on Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6 ½)
I can’t anymore with the Arizona Cardinals. I’m not sure 2024 holds a more inconsistent team. They have been a rollercoaster ride from start to finish for anyone who has dared gamble on them. They won four straight a month ago only to have dropped three straight shortly thereafter. In a division defined by its unpredictability, and perhaps even a lack of desire to win it, the Cards take the cake. Already eliminated, they travel to Los Angeles to face the division’s daddy and current leader. The Rams started off this season 1-4, and were once written off, but have won five of their last six. They control their own destiny and are not going to let the occasionally amazing Kyler Murray stand in their way. In fact, now that they have nothing to play for, I’d be surprised if they even ran Murray out there, unless they have a Shedeur-like insurance policy they’d like to cash on their diminutive quarterback. In addition, Arizona’s James Connor left last week’s game with an injury and is listed as questionable. The Rams are 4-3 at home, the Cards are 2-5 away. After allowing 42 points to the Bills, a game which they won, the Rams have allowed only 15 points combined in their last two and both of those were on the road. The L.A. crowd will be fired up, or at least as fired up as L.A. football fans can be about a team not wearing silver and black. The Rams are better coached and more disciplined. The Cards have already been put out of their misery. Look for the Rams to shovel the first batch of dirt on the coffin. Rams cover the six-and-a-half.
$10 on Detroit Lions (-3) at San Francisco Lions
I find it odd that we keep underestimating the Lions. They are the best team in the league, or at least one of them, AND are 10-5 against the spread. This week, they’re only laying three in San Francisco, against a team that has already been eliminated and has been busy visiting most of its star players in the hospital. The Niners will keep throwing Brock Purdy out there to see if he’s worthy of the contract that they, or somebody else, will eventually give him. Meanwhile, the Lions still have a lot to play for. With the Chiefs already locking up the top seed in the AFC, the Lions sure would like to get one win closer to that happening. The weekend’s entire slate of football will have played out, so we’ll know Monday night, when this game is played, just how important this game is. What we know for sure is that a win is still something the Lions covet if they want to be hosting the playoffs through January. The Lions have yet to lose on the road this season, they’re 7-0, and don’t have the slightest problem going into other teams’ stadiums and beating the crap out of them. They should do the same in Santa Clara against a Niners team many won’t recognize. Lions minus three.
Celebrity Guest: The Barber (Career 13-2, +$310)
Let’s start with Week 17 with happy holidays, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, and more to all celebrating this week! And a statement of fact – the NBA owns Christmas Day! Why is the National Football League playing on a Wednesday? It makes no sense. It’s not like there’s a six-legged turkey awaiting the winners like on Thanksgiving (thank you John Madden!). It’s called staying in your lane NFL. If Christmas is on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday have at it. If not – let the NBA have their day.
With that off my chest, on to the picks.
$10 Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) vs New York Giants
I read an interesting stat the other day. The Mets have won more recently that the Giants and I’m not talking about the Juan Soto lottery either. I mean an actual game. With that as a backdrop, I expect that the Colts will march into East Rutherford and put a nail in their coffin. But I’ve also seen zombies rise from the dead on TV before so with the 7.5 points, I’m not certain that this is more than a touchdown game. That being said, picking the Giants to cover is hard, but that’s why this is in the $10 category. So we’ll do it – Colts win but Giants cover.
$20 University of Notre Dame (-1.5) vs University of Georgia Bulldogs
One of two toss ups in the CFP and I’m willing to wade into the unknown with a Georgia team on their backup QB against a Notre Dame team that seems to be clicking on most cylinders. Georgia has the bye advantage to figure out how to best utilize their new QB while Notre Dame has the momentum. And it’s a true toss up to me. But considering that Notre Dame is a client, and it would be awful to walk onto campus after another CFP loss, I’m going to go with them covering the spread here.
$30 Green Bay Packers (-1.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
What an insult. Where are the Vikings fans? Your team is hosting a moderately good Green Bay team and you can’t show up with your money for a home game? The Vikings are supposed to be superior. They are chasing the Lions (wait…let me read that again) and people are doubting their ability to beat the Pack? Especially when they walked into Lambeau Field and walked out with a couple point win a few weeks ago? Go figure. With a little home cooking and a present from Santa, I think the Vikings make it a season sweep.
$40 Los Angeles Charges (-4) vs New England Patriots
I debated this one heavily, but I turn back to that old adage – west coast team playing at 1 pm eastern is not good. So when I say the San Diego Chargers (wait…what? They don’t play in San Diego anymore??) are going east to face my New England Patriots, I figured it’s worth the risk.
Let me explain. I saw at the poor excuse of a stadium that they call Soldier Field and watched the Patriots “dominate” the Bears. It was difficult but someone has to watch. At least the Marine Corps Silent Drill Platoon put on a great demonstration of ability at halftime. But while watching I started to realize that the Patriots, while not good, aren’t terrible. And I watched the Bills game last week and realized that they are about two to three plays a game from routinely winning. Finally, some talking heads on ESPN (well, writing head) had an article about Drake Maye being the most impressive rookie QB and I was sold on the Pats covering or even winning outright against a Chargers team coming East.
$50 New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills (-10)
For those of you expecting me to say that Aaron and the Jets (is that a new Elton John song?) are going to cover, think again. I can only say that the Bills are probably feeling embarrassed that a poor New England team hung around with them as long as they did and are ready to turn on their own jets on Sunday. So look for the Bills to bury the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets for the season and hopefully Aaron Rodgers’s career for good. We’re only one butt fumble away from that being the case (one can hope!). Even my Green Bay fan friends want to see him gone from the league. Let’s say the Bills by two touchdowns and put this guy out of his misery.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Detroit Lions (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Dan Campbell is the story here. He almost always is. The door is open for Detroit to lock the top seed in the NFC. That will also depend on the result of the Vikings-Packers game. When asked if he’ll rest players, Campbell quickly said no. They will play to win, no matter what. But let’s not forget one more story. This is a revenge game. Detroit had the heartbreaking loss to the Niners in last year’s NFC Championship game. His players know it, too. Again, watch the post game speeches in the Detroit locker room. This team plays with a chip on its shoulder. Injuries or not, Detroit will be ready. No stats needed. The Niners are a shell of themselves in 2024. Lions cover on the road.
$40: Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at New England Patriots
The Chargers travel cross country and still have playoff hopes. New England is strictly playing spoiler, although the Jerod Mayo story on his job security is an interesting extra layer to this game. Drake Maye has five games this season in which he has completed 70% or more of his passes. But he’ll be facing a stingy and talented Chargers defense. L.A. doesn’t blow your doors off statistically on defense, but there are a number of big time players that can impact the game. Overall, with too much to play for, Harbaugh won’t let this game get away. Chargers cover on the road.
$30: Carolina Panthers (+8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas continues to disrespect Bryce Young and the Panthers. Carolina is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs (as noted by ESPN research). Young has improved significantly since his benching. That includes last week’s three TD performance in a 36-30 OT win over the Cardinals. On the flip side, the Bucs no longer control their playoff destiny. Tampa Bay has been sloppy with the football in recent weeks, but clearly has more to play for. But the Panthers have turned into a scrappy bunch. Six of Carolina’s last seven games have been one score games. Considering I’m a heavy trends guy, you know where this is going. Give me the Panthers and the points on the road.
$20: Texas A&M Aggies (-1) vs USC Trojans
Again, it’s opt-outs and transfers that impact this game (and the line throughout the week). I don’t know how accurate the opt-out tracker is at covers.com https://www.covers.com/ncaaf/bowl-game-opt-out-tracker, but they list twenty players for the Trojans. TWENTY! Sure, they aren’t all starters, but that’s a ton of depth. The Aggies, meanwhile, list eight players. Then, with a tossup line, it comes down to SEC and Big Ten. The top of the Big Ten has been more powerful and consistent, but the Trojans have been a mess under Lincoln Riley. Defensively, with just 20 sacks in 12 games, Texas A&M should have time to cook on offense. Aggies cover at the Las Vegas Bowl.
$10: Iowa State Cyclones vs Miami Hurricanes (+1)
As of Friday morning, the Hurricanes jumped to 3 1/2 point favorites on some sites. That’s the challenge in Bowl season with so many opt-outs, transfer portal departures, and injuries. This is an interesting matchup, considering both teams were knocking on the door of the playoffs. Iowa State needed a conference championship win and failed miserably. But the biggest story and impact to this game is the fact that Cam Ward is playing. A likely future first round pick in the NFL Draft, that was certainly a question mark going in. Ward (4,123 yards, 36 TD, 7 INT) is the x-factor. Oh, and the other story? Being able to use that Pop-Tarts mascot now as the post’s featured image. Hurricanes win… and eat giant Pop-Tarts.
