Well, our regular season has come to an end. I’d like to thank all those who took the time to participate in this contest once again. We will undoubtedly be back to do it again next year. I will post completed standings so we can see who dominated and who might want to do a little more research with their picks.
A hearty congratulations to Kevin Paul, founder of The Wife Hate Sports, for leading this contest wire-to-wire. While only correctly predicting two more games than me on the season, he made those picks count and that’s what we want to do when we gamble: bet confidently on the games we feel sure of and take smaller stabs on the ones we’re leery on. He did that; I didn’t.
The objective of this entire exercise is to see when, and how, we should gamble on games. And he did fantastic work.
I’m sure Kevin and I have something brewing for the post-season. Until then, let’s throw
$50 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (over 28 ½ points scored)
Let’s try something we haven’t yet this season, a single team’s scoring total. The Bucs over/under is points 28 ½ and if you’ve been watching the Buccaneers as religiously as I have this season, you’d know they’ve been playing Tecmo Bowl. They control their own destiny this weekend: a win and they’re in, again, they’re fourth straight NFC South title. Mike Evans needs 85 yards receiving to tie Jerry Rice for 11 straight seasons with 1,000 or more receiving yards. But what matters most to everyone in that locker room, including Evans, is that the Buccaneers get the win. Standing in their way, the dreaded divisional rival New Orleans Saints, who would like nothing more than to spoil the Buc’s boat ride to the playoffs. However, these Saints are limping into the off-season and are not your Saints of old, particularly defensively. Their last two weeks, they allowed 34 points to the Packers and 25 to the Raiders. With all due respect to Jordan Love, the Packers’ offense is not Tampa Bay’s, one of only three teams thirty of more points per game this season. So, you’re telling me in a must win game that the Bucs won’t score over their average against a team on a three-game losing streak and who also posted a seven-game losing streak earlier in the season? All Bucs, all day, keep the points coming. Bucs total points over 28 ½.
$40 on Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)
It all comes down to this. As dominant as the Lions have been all season, who would have ever thought they’d need Week 18 to clinch the one-seed in the NFC? That’s because the Eagles have kept them honest but more importantly, so have the Minnesota Vikings, a team nobody thought would be a legit Super Bowl contender. Yet here they are. The rejuvenated Sam Darnold has led the Vikes to a 14-2 record, all but sealing up coach of the year honors for Kevin O’Connell and perhaps even a Comeback Player of the Year Award for Darnold. But the Vikings, as impressive as they are, have one last big step if they want to land that one-seed and home field throughout the playoffs. That means winning a game in Detroit. While the Lions have been one of the league’s unluckiest teams health wise, they’re still one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. If you’d told Dan Campbell at the beginning of the season that he’d get one home game the final week of the season to play against a division rival for the top seed in the NFC playoffs, he’d have sold his soul for it right then and there. Both these teams’ greatness has been undersold by Vegas this season. Minnesota and Detroit rank 1 and 2 in against the spread records which means something will have to give. The line here is only three and I’m inclined to believe the Lions really want this win. They didn’t come all this way only to lose to Minnesota and drop to the five seed. In a battle between two quarterbacks that other teams have passed on, I’ll give the nod to Jared Goff. Lions cover the three at home and clinch the top spot in the NFC playoffs.
$30 on Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+6 ½)
Something puzzles me about this line. If the Bucs win this weekend, which they should, and the Rams lose, that means the Rams could drop from the three-spot to the four. There are several other seeding implications headed into this final week, but I can’t imagine the Rams, big underdogs to the Seahawks at home, would want to drop this game on their home turf regardless of who they’re starting. Besides, Seattle has proven to be one of the more unreliable teams in the NFL this season. Six-and-a-half points is too much. Even though the Rams are benching Stafford, they’re throwing out Jimmy Garoppolo. While I’m unsure about the Rams’ other big three, Kyrien Williams, Puca Nacua and Cooper Kupp, I can’t see them out there risking injury either. That said, I find it highly unlikely that Sean McVay will trot a team out there to get walloped at home despite what this line suggests. Plus, it’s not like the Seahawks are going to play their starters for four quarters either. Note: live wagering might be in play here when the Seahawks call off the dogs. Rams are getting six-and-a-half. I’ll take them because the Rams won’t want to head into the playoffs with a rout under their belt. Rams plus.
$20 on Los Angeles Chargers (-3 ½) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Chargers are another grossly underrated team and they still have positioning to play for. If the Steelers lose on Saturday night to Cincinnati, a distinct possibility, the Chargers can nab the five seed, which means traveling to Houston, instead of the six-seed, which means traveling to Baltimore. While no NFL team fears another, no one wants to face the Ravens right now. One would think going through Houston would be a much easier road to advancing. While I’d much rather place this wager after seeing the outcome of the Bengals-Steelers game, I can’t help but think the line will move depending on what happens Saturday night. Either way, the line is small, and the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league, probably playing for draft position more than pride. Even if the Chargers rest their offensive starters, their defense is good enough to stifle anything the Raiders throw their way. The line opened at 3 ½ and quickly jumped to 5 ½. I’ll take my chances based mostly on the fact that one of these teams is good and playing for playoff position while the other is atrocious and playing for draft position. Chargers minus three and a half.
$10 on Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is reeling. They’ve lost their last three games and while those games were all against top-seeded playoff teams, Philly, Baltimore and the Chiefs, they lost those games by a combined fifty points. This was my concern with this Steelers team. While nobody doubted their defense, could they string together sustained drives offensively? I’m not convinced they can. They’ve gone from leading the AFC North to having to travel throughout the playoffs as either a five, six or seven seed. The Bengals still have slim hopes of making it so this week in Steel City, they’ll throw out all the stops. For some reason, as bad as their defense is (bottom ten in the league in most statistic categories), their offense covers more warts than Compound W. Joe Burrow remains on fire. I rode them to profit last week against a stout Denver defense. I’m doing the same this week in Pittsburgh. Cincy wants this, rather needs this, far more than Pittsburgh and the last thing anyone in the AFC wants is Cincinnati in the playoffs. They’ll give it their all. It might not be good enough to sneak them into the playoffs, but it should be enough to topple the struggling Steelers. Cincy minus the 1.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Washington Commanders (-4) at Dallas Cowboys
Dan Quinn and the Commanders have stated they will not rest starters and want the higher seed. The six seed would mean avoiding the Eagles in the opening round of the playoffs. I’m sure Washington also wants to avenge a sloppy loss to its rival a number of weeks back. Dallas, meanwhile, has nothing to play for. It’s noted that Trey Lance is likely to get significant reps. Weather impact is not an issue considering the game is at “Jerry’s World”. Statistically, the Cowboys have allowed the fourth most rushing yards (2,218) and the most rushing TD’s (24). Consider that a plus for Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, and the Washington run game. Commanders cover on the road.
$40: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13)
I’ve had a love-hate relationship with picking for and against Baker Mayfield quite often this season. Heading into the regular season finale, the Bucs have everything to play for. Win and take the division. New Orleans, meanwhile, is saying they will play hard for their community that is healing following the tragedy in the French Quarter a few days ago. Never doubt motivation from something like that. Still, Baker Mayfield was on fire in December. He has 11 TD’s over his last three games, including five last week against the Panthers. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. With the playoffs on the line, I think Baker comes up big again. Bucs cover at home.
$30: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
This is the game of the week. The battle for the #1 seed in the NFC. I don’t care for the lines on the other meaningful games scheduled. Again, Ford Field is a dome, so no weather impact. Detroit took the first game 31-29, and that was many weeks ago. The Lions have been in shootouts for weeks, scoring 34 points or more in each of its last four games (winning three). The key battle is Ben Johnson (Lions OC) vs Brian Flores (Vikings DC). Both are likely to be head coach candidates in the offseason, so this is the stage to shine. Then, there are the QB’s over their last seven games: Jared Goff (20 TD, 1 INT) and Sam Darnold (18 TD, 2 INT). Flip a coin or check your kneecaps. I’m rolling with Dan Campbell. Lions cover at home.
$20: Houston Texans (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans
This is an interesting one. Reports state that the Texans will play their starters. The question many are asking is for how long? Seeding isn’t impacted here. Clearly, there’s an expectation that the time will be limited, as Houston is currently an underdog in Tennessee. However, the Titans are currently slotted 3rd in the NFL Draft and have a shot at landing the first overall pick. The Patriots, Titans, Browns, and Giants all have a 3-13 record heading into the final week. You can’t tell me that by the second half, both teams will be playing non-starters. You could look at logic and simply think Houston has more motivation to win, just for the sake of momentum into the playoffs. Give me the Texans on the road.
$10: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
This is a tricky one. This was an opportunity for Saquon Barkley facing his former team with a chance to break a 40 year-old rushing record. Nick Sirianni has chosen to play it safe and rest him, as this game has no meaning to seeding. Clearly, fans and the Philly O-line are frustrated. But the Eagles will rest a lot of their key players. Then, there are the Giants, who have nothing to play for. A win last week dropped them out of the first pick in the NFL Draft. New York fans are not happy about that. Another win will further the free fall. So, which way to go with this one, and why pick it? I don’t like the other lines and I’m riding on Philly’s overall depth as 1 1/2 point favorites at home. Eagles cover at home.
Fun as always, Chump – appreciate the collaboration and look forward to next time! Thanks to all that participated and for supporting SportsChump and TWHS.