As with any change in command, I reached out to Kevin at The Wife Hates Sports, giving him a conciliatory and congratulatory phone call for his season’s success. He edged me out in this year’s pick ‘em contest, the bastard.
However, the competitor in me would not let this aggression stand. As is my right as an American, I refused the peaceful transition of power. Redemption would be mine and it would come in the form of a playoffs contest. Some might consider it pressing; I call it sweet, sweet revenge.
For a while now, he and I have discussed how to carry this contest into the post-season. After a fair amount of thought, I challenged him to an all-new, cross-website contest, a duel for the ages: A redrafting of playoff teams where the blogger who correctly predicts the Super Bowl winner becomes our ultimate champion.
Since he won this year’s pick ‘em (and unfortunately my over/under contest as well – more on that later), I offered him the choice: draft first and allow me to take the second and third picks with each person taking two teams thereafter OR defer the top pick to me.
After watching more football this season than any doctor would recommend, Kevin deferred his first pick. Here is how we drafted. To the victor go the spoils.
Selected First Overall by SportsChump: The Kansas City Chiefs (+350)
This one was simple for me. To be the best, you must beat the best. Yet, for some reason, or perhaps many, the Kansas City Chiefs are still flying under everyone’s radar, which is why so many of us, Kevin included, refuse to believe they’re poised to three-peat. Even with an AFC bye, getting to watch the Ravens and Bills go head-to-head before one of them travels to Arrowhead, even though this team stands on the verge of history, a history that they fully understand, many of us, Kevin included, have written them off. Otherwise, why wouldn’t he have taken them number one? Perhaps it’s how they played this season, all injured and barely squeaking by against teams they should have steamrolled, going 8-9 against the spread. But in my humble opinion, this is simply a matter of a veteran team with bigger things in sight, their collective wide eyes on the historical prize. This Chiefs season is, in a nutshell, a glass half empty-glass half full situation. I’m not sure a 15-2 team has ever been more scrutinized. Were the Chiefs only as good as what we saw or were they doing just enough to get by? I’m inclined to believe the latter is more appropriate. After watching Patrick Mahomes and company do what they’ve done since 2019, one gets the impression they have a good sense of history. They know what’s at stake; three-peatin’ ain’t easy. It’s why it’s never been done before in NFL history. Here is their shot. They will be a tough out. After the season they’ve had, would it surprise anyone if they came out and laid waste to every team in their way, or rather, do what they do, go down double digits only to rip the hearts out of their opponents? Their defense remains woefully underappreciated, their offense iconic, and they are led by a guy you simply never, EVER want to bet against. So, I didn’t. I drafted them first like any sensible human being.
After my Chiefs pick, Kevin selected… The Lions and the Bills
Selected Second Overall by The Wife Hates Sports: The Detroit Lions (+300)
I mean, other than the fact that he’s likely a “Swiftie” and can’t wait to hear the story about Travis proposing. In all seriousness, it’s nearly impossible to three-peat in this league. It’s never been done. Chump will say I’ve “written them off”, and that’s not entirely true. I know what the Chiefs are capable of, but I’m a data and trends guy, and my gut says it’s someone else’s turn.
My gut told me to snag two of the top three picks. It also told me to trust two teams that have never won a Super Bowl. No worries, there are reasons why each will. Let me bullet it out for all my picks.
Dan Campbell – If you’ve read The Wife Hates Sports throughout the pick ‘em season, you’ll recall my consistent praise for DC. Sure, his insane aggressiveness has bitten him in the backside (and not the kneecaps) a few times. But most of the time, it worked. Just watch the postgame press conferences with Campbell and wonder how many brick walls have been run through.
Depth and Next Man Up Mentality – Everyone has talked about Detroit’s injuries and there’s clearly depth to the roster, as the Lions just keep on winning (and scoring).
Explosive Offense (and Balance) – Detroit led the NFL scoring 33.2 points per game and led the NFC in yards per game (409.5). Over their last five games, the Lions scored 31 points or more each time, and went 4-1 during that stretch while facing three playoff teams. The loss was to the Bills. This offense also is very balanced, ranking 2nd in passing and 6th in rushing.
Defense – If you want to question the defense, the Lions held the Vikings to 9 points in a finale that was determining the #1 seed in the NFC. Detroit ranks 5th against the run and is a +9 in turnover differential, so it’s best to attack them through the air and limit mistakes.
Selected Third Overall by The Wife Hates Sports: The Buffalo Bills (+600)
Home field Advantage (Fans and Weather) – When picking between Baltimore and Buffalo, the Bills are 8-0 at home and the Ravens would have to play there. It’s only KC that has the edge as the top seed. Every other game would have to go through Buffalo – and quite often, “Buffal-snow”. Weather is always an impact and the fans are beyond ready for this team to get back to a Super Bowl.
Josh Allen – There are very few like him. Allen is a big play waiting to happen and the Bills go as he goes. But his 2024 was better than last year for a lot of reasons. Allen had 28 TD passes and 6 INT. That’s one-third the picks from 2023, where he threw 18. Translation: he’s making better decisions. On top of that, Allen had 531 yards on the ground and 12 rushing TD’s.
Turnover Margin – As they always say, to win big games, you start by winning the turnover battle. The Bills lead the NFL with a +24-turnover margin. Second is Pittsburgh at +16! Over the year, the Bills forced 32 takeaways (16 INT and 16 fumbles), with just 8 giveaways in seventeen games.
Versus Playoff Teams – One concern is Buffalo’s 2-3 record against playoff teams this year, but that does include victories over both top seeds (Lions and Chiefs). One keynote to soften the concern is that all three losses were on the road. As the two seed, the only road game would be in KC.
Solving the Chiefs (in January) – Yes, the Bills have to take care of business first, but let’s just say it’s a Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship. It’s not like the Bills haven’t solved the Chiefs. It’s just solving the Chiefs in January (and the playoffs). Dating back to 2021, the Bills are 4-0 against the Chiefs between the months of October and December, but 0-3 in the month of January.
That left me no other conclusion than to draft the Ravens and the Eagles
Logic dictates that, with the Chiefs gone, you’d want to draft an NFC team. I would have taken the Lions second as well. But if anyone is going to knock off the Chiefs in the AFC, it’s got to be the Baltimore Ravens. And if any team (other than my beloved Buccaneers) is going to take down the Lions, it’s the Philadelphia Eagles.
Selected Fourth Overall by SportsChump: The Baltimore Ravens (+600)
To be perfectly honest, I’m surprised Kevin didn’t take the Ravens with one of his first two picks. This team is constructed to win and win now. In a word, they’re frightening. The addition of Derrick Henry this offseason left every fan outside of Baltimore shaking their heads and those within the city limits giddy at the possibilities. All Henry did was compete with Saquon Barkley for the rushing title and add a dangerous element to what was already a dangerous offense. The Ravens paced Henry, using him sparingly (by his standards) to make sure he was ready to bulldoze into the postseason. He was tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (16) and just missed 2000 yards, a number he could have achieved had it been important to the team. It wasn’t. They have bigger things on their mind. Henry picked up steam towards the end of the season, rushing for 162 yards against Pittsburgh,147 against Houston and 138 against Cleveland in his last three weeks of the season. Trying to tackle Derrick Henry ranks atop the least things I’d like to do in professional sports along with getting knocked out by Mike Tyson and stepping into the batter’s box against Nolan Ryan. The next five weeks is why Henry left Tennessee, because he felt, like everyone else watching, that playing in Baltimore gave him the best chance to win a Super Bowl. Oh yeah, then there’s that two-time MVP Lamar Jackson who is pretty good at this whole football thing too. Lamar Jackson must get over that playoff snide if he wants to be considered among the best to ever do it. His counterpart over in Kansas City has cast a Jordan-like shadow over the rest of the AFC, Jackson is 2-4 career in the post-season. Yet at only 27, he knows this is his best chance yet to topple the giant of the AFC. He has a full clip. The excuses are running out. Before meeting KC, they’ll have to handle Pittsburgh, who they only finally recently manhandled, and of course Buffalo in Buffalo. Buffalo will want revenge for losing to Baltimore early this season but if that game was any indication, the Ravens should be just fine. Baltimore-Buffalo should by all accounts be one of the best games of the season. Baltimore’s receiving corps and dual tight end threat will have to step it up as they have for most of the season and Justin Tucker will have to regain his form as the league’s best kicker. Additionally, their defense was top ten in both points and yardage allowed. Their head coach, that other Harbaugh, has been there and done that. But let’s be honest. We all know this post-season is about Jackson and Henry. As long as the defense keeps opponents honest, that will give Jackson and Henry ample opportunity to do their thing. I like their chances.
Selected Fifth Overall by SportsChump: The Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
If you ask me, there are probably only five teams that can win this thing. The Eagles are the last of those five. It wasn’t all that long ago that Jalen Hurts led this team to a Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Although he fell short of that goal, a legendary performance in that game convinced Eagles fans that Hurts was a guy capable of bringing them to the promised land. So, what do they do in the offseason? Bolster the backfield, of course, just as Baltimore did. Saquon Barkley did inhuman things this season, all the while reminding Giants fans how miserable they truly are. Barkley led the league in rushing, earned MVP consideration and even hurdled defenders backwards. It seems like every time we turned around, he was breaking off rushes for seventy-something yards. In five different games this season, he had rushes for 55 yards or more. That’s one surefire way to get to 2000. As the NFC’s second seed, the Eagles are tremendously undervalued. If Hurts is healthy, he has the weapons on offense. And if the adage that defense wins championships is true, the Eagles are okay there too. They allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL. And with all this talk about Denver, Kansas City, Minnesota and Pittsburgh’s defense, Philly was second only to the Chargers in points allowed per game.
“I knew you’d do that. Crap. Vikings and Chargers,” replied Kevin. Given the opportunity, those were the two teams that I would have picked next.
Selected Sixth Overall by The Wife Hates Sports: The Minnesota Vikings (+1600)
Obviously, I knew the SportsChump would go to the Ravens and Eagles next. I was tempted to go with the Ravens as one of my picks, but the positives for Buffalo outweighed the ones for Baltimore.
Twenty-five wins between these next two teams… and this late in the draft? I’ll take it.
Think Big Picture – It’s easy to discount the Vikings after seeing them fall to the Lions 31-9 with the top seed on the line. Let’s not forget that this team is 14-3 and is a dangerous five seed.
Defense Wins Championships – It’s a phrase often said. In big games, teams often focus on establishing the run game. Minnesota ranks 2nd in run defense, allowing 93.4 yards per game. The Vikings also rank 5th in points per game allowed (19.5).
Sam Darnold – Who knew? Let it be a lesson to any of us. Hard work and perseverance. His 43.9% completion percentage against Detroit in the season finale wasn’t pretty, but the overall season was: 4,319 passing yards, 35 TD, 12 INT.
Justin Jefferson – With 103 receptions, 1,533 yards, and 10 TD’s on the season, Jefferson is a game changer. There will need to be elite defensive performances to shut him down, or at least limit him.
Facing Playoff Teams – Minnesota was 3-3 against playoff teams. Two losses were to the Lions and we all say it’s difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. The Vikings could get another shot at Detroit.
Selected Seventh Overall by The Wife Hates Sports: The Los Angeles Chargers (+3000)
Defense Wins Championships (Again) – Like with the Vikings, the Chargers are a difficult team to score on. In fact, the Chargers allowed the fewest points in the league this season (17.7). L.A. ranks 7th in passing yards allowed, so if you’re behind and need to score quickly… good luck. They were also tied for 3rd in turnover margin (+12) this season. The Chargers have impact players all over the field.
Jim Harbaugh – I might have vomited in my mouth a little, but let’s give credit where credit is due. Harbaugh wins wherever he goes and he was the right hire in Los Angeles. He also has his team prepared on the road (6-3 away from home).
Battle Tested – Nearly half of L.A.’s games were against playoff teams. That includes two close one-score losses to the Chiefs.
Justin Herbert – Talk about an under the radar performance this season. Why is no one talking about Herbert? Justin Herbert had 3,870 passing yards, 23 passing TD’s and just 3 INT. His QB rating was over 100.0 in ten games this season.
Then, he added a wrinkle. Since he’s a Commanders fan and I’m a Buccaneers fan, it was at that point of our dastardly draft that Kevin suggested we have a gentleman’s agreement to take our homer teams, which we did.
So, I took Tampa and the Rams.
Selected Eighth Overall by SportsChump: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2500)
In the history of the NFL playoffs, I’m not sure a 3-seed has been more slept on than these Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you look at their record, they’re just as viable a candidate to reach the Super Bowl as any other NFC team, and their path, dare I say, is easier. People forget that this is a team that beat Detroit in Detroit, handled Washington, dismantled the Chargers in SoFi, beat the Philadelphia Eagles as they tend to do, and for one quarter, were beating the tar out of the Baltimore Ravens until Mike Evans dropped a touchdown pass in the end zone and re-injured his hamstring. Had any other team in the NFL put forth this resume, we’d be lauding them as contenders yet, for some reason, the Bucs get overlooked. Perhaps it’s because their defense, to be fair, is pretty shoddy, or at least a shell of its former self. While their run defense remains top five in the league, it’s their pass defense that keeps this team from being mentioned amongst the teams we routinely consider when mentioning potential Super Bowl champions. This Baker Mayfield-led offense, however, is fun to watch and can score on anyone with regularity. The Bucs rank top five in both scoring and yardage per game. They have multiple weapons in the ground game, which includes Baker Mayfield, who ranked 8th among quarterbacks in rushing yards. Despite them not showing up for three quarters in the final game of the season, the Bucs have proven to be a well-prepared team that can execute, particularly when they have the ball. This is a team no one wants to play and one that’s confident they can play, and beat, anyone, anywhere.
Selected Ninth Overall by SportsChump: The Los Angeles Rams (+4000)
With all the teams remaining on the board, the Rams would not have been my next pick but the way the brackets set up with teams Kevin and I had already selected, they made the most sense. I liked the Packers but had already taken the Eagles so choosing Green Bay didn’t add up. I liked the Steelers but had already taken the Ravens so that also was counterintuitive. Matchup-wise, either the Rams or Texans were the sensible choice. So, I opted for the veteran coach and the hotter team. The Rams ended up atop the NFC West, the NFL’s most dysfunctional division. Throughout the season, every team led this division, until the Niners succumbed to injury and the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals realized they weren’t up to the task. The Rams also spent much of their season injured and even started off their season1-4 before closing out strong. That means this team finished 9-3. Not too bad. It wasn’t all that long ago that this team won a Super Bowl. They still have Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp. They’ve added Kyrien Williams and Puca Nacua. And they have home field advantage in the first round although no one is giving them a shot against the Vikings. They’re one of two home underdogs in the opening round. Houston’s the other. If we see the Vikings team we saw Sunday night, the Rams should have no problem. The Rams turned their season around when they showed America they could play with the big boys, beating the Bills 44-42. People had largely written L.A. off until that point. After that, they held the Niners, Jets and Cardinals to under ten points each. The more I talk about them, the more I like them. This is a team that won’t make mistakes and could force the Vikings into tightening up on the road. Sean McVay is 7-4 career in the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if the Rams pull off an upset at home in the first round, then shake up the world when Matt Stafford faces his home team.
To go with Kevin’s Kommanders, he also took Green Bay…
Selected Tenth Overall by The Wife Hates Sports: The Washington Commanders (+4000)
We aligned a gentleman’s agreement to ensure that each of us had our favorite NFL team, which would be the Bucs for the Chump and the “Commander-skins” for me.
Two elite quarterbacks, including the Rookie of the Year? Yes, please.
Twelve Pack – As the six seed, Washington finished 12-5 this season. They find ways to win tight games (e.g. Hail Mary in Chicago, failed two-point conversion in New Orleans). Let’s not forget that only five teams had more wins than the Commanders during the regular season.
Marshon Lattimore – One of Washington’s weaknesses was getting beaten in the secondary. Adding a healthy Lattimore is huge, and a way that Washington could have success in the playoffs. Shutting down top receivers and that will start with Mike Evans. It also helps stud rookie Mike Sainristil.
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin – Washington’s offense is 7th in total yards, 3rd in rushing, and fifth in scoring. McLaurin has been lights out this season and Daniels is an explosive player that is extremely difficult to plan against.
Dan Quinn – I admit, I questioned the hire – and I was wrong. Players love DQ and he has the Commanders believing. You could argue he’s right there with Dan Campbell as far as pushing a team to another level. Forget that Super Bowl collapse. He’s evolving and has a great staff around him. The Commanders will be a dangerous out.
Selected Eleventh Overall by the Wife Hates Sports: Green Bay Packers (+2000)
Point Differential – This Packers team has talent on both sides of the ball and they can wear you down. Green Bay’s +122 point differential for the season was the 4th best in the NFL. Only the Lions, Bills, and Eagles had a higher mark.
Jordan Love – It feels like eons ago that we questioned Love being drafted while Rodgers was QB1 in “Cheese-land”. The Packers have injuries in its WR room, but Love spreads the ball around and tossed 13 TD’s in seven games against playoff teams.
Josh Jacobs – Talk about a workhorse. In his first season with the Packers, Jacobs had 1,671 total yards, 16 total TD’s, 301 carries, and 36 receptions. He has the ability to take over a game.
Balance – Again, there’s a reason for the point differential. It’s balance on offense and defense, and the Packers may have that more than any other team. Green Bay ranks fifth in total yards on offense (370.8) and sixth in yards allowed on defense (315.6).
… which left me with Houston and Pittsburgh
Selected Twelfth Overall by SportsChump: The Houston Texans (+7500)
Let’s be honest. Nobody in their right mind expects the Houston Texans to do much. They’re in the playoffs at 10-7 by virtue of winning the AFC South which is like being the tallest guy in a hobbit contest. For the most part, these Texans have failed to live up to the expectations we’ve set for them. And they’re injured. They’ve got no Tank Dell and no Stefon Diggs which makes them limited offensively. Expect a heavy dosage of Mixon and Pierce but if they can’t get anything going on the ground against a well-coached Jim Harbaugh team, these young Texans might have a problem. But I’m here to talk about the good as this is a team that I’ve selected to win the Super Bowl. Nico Collins is always dangerous, and the young CJ Stroud has another year under his belt. They are playing at home, as an underdog, and essentially their season starts now. Maybe that’s enough motivation to squeeze by the visiting Chargers. Or at least, I’m hoping so. Besides, if I’d have given you the Texans at 75 to 1 back in September to win the Super Bowl, you’d have been all over it.
Selected Thirteenth Overall by SportsChump: The Pittsburgh Steelers (+7500)
Remember back when we were touting this as the year the Steelers finally got over the hump? It wasn’t all that long ago. We all marveled at Mike Tomlin as he continued his dominance over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. We watched in amazement as he took two quarterbacks that nobody wanted (one of them for whom another team was footing the bill) and led them to a 10-3 record. Then they played three games in eleven days, all against playoff teams, and lost their division lead and their mojo to boot. They lost their last four games of the season, proving unable to move the ball against any of those teams. And this is where we all feared the Steelers would end up, heading in the wrong direction in the playoffs and staring a five-game losing streak squarely in the face. The good news is that they’re in the playoffs and play their first-round matchup against a team that they traditionally own. It wasn’t until their last matchup, less than a month ago, that the Ravens finally covered a number against the Steelers. The bad news for Pittsburgh is that most feel they’re going to do so again. Don’t think, for one moment, that there’s a Ravens fan in that stadium who isn’t at least a little nervous about Steelers-Ravens history. Would it shock anyone if the Ravens got past Pittsburgh? Of course not. They’re nine-point favorites. But would it surprise anyone if Mike Tomlin and the Steelers do what they do and have done against Baltimore over the years? If you ask me, the Steelers at 75 to 1 is incredible value for a team that wasn’t long ago considered one of the best in football.
Selected Fourteenth Overall by The Wife Hates Sports: The Denver Broncos (+7500)
We are running out of teams, but that doesn’t mean that either of these rosters can’t find a way to shock the world – but will they?
That leaves me with the Denver Broncos, and that’s ok with me. Honestly, I would have taken the Broncos before both the Texans and Steelers.
Point Differential – I like this stat as a measurement of success. The Broncos were +114 on the season, behind only the Lions, Eagles, Bills, and aforementioned Packers. Only the Chargers and Eagles allowed fewer points during the regular season.
Bo Nix – If not for Jayden Daniels, Denver’s rookie QB would have been a lock for Rookie of the Year. Nix had an impressive first season (3,775 passing yards, 29 TD, 12 INT) and has had plenty of poise, as I expected. Of the twelve interceptions, nine of them came in four games. Four of those came in the opening two weeks. That means Nix had just three INT’s in a combined thirteen regular season games. He’s a winner in every spot he’s been in and has the perfect head coach as a mentor.
Defensive Numbers – The Broncos allowed the 7th fewest yards during the regular season (317.1). They also ranked third against the run, which is key when facing the mobile QB’s in the AFC.
Sean Payton – Denver’s HC is a seasoned veteran and has been in this position before. Payton has coached in seventeen playoff games, going 9-8 during that stretch. He’s an offensive mind with a roster that doesn’t allow a lot of points (or yards). That’s a lethal playoff combination.
