Despite the magic of this NFL season, with Josh Allen continuing to amaze, Saquon Barkley flirting with the all-time single season rushing record while hurdling defenders backwards and the Chiefs once again locking up a one-seed while rarely shifting into high gear, one image we’ll all remember is of a flustered and frustrated rookie Caleb Williams, exhausted and defeated, hunched over the Bears bench, stuck smack dab in the middle of an ten-game losing streak.

Much was expected, probably unfairly, out of Williams. In retrospect, those expectations were far too lofty considering his Bears were playing in a division that saw three teams make the playoffs for the first time since divisional realignment.
Caleb Williams was the consensus number one draft pick at quarterback, selected by a franchise that by most accounts, has never really had one. If you consider the fact that Jay Cutler is the all-time Bears leader in passing yards and in eight years with the team had only one playoff win, I stand by my claim that, despite how beloved he is, the Bears would love to have a quarterback other than Jim McMahon to hang their helmet on.
Caleb Williams may, or may not, be their guy. Such is the inexactitude of choosing a quarterback.
Jayden Daniels, who has remotivated a Washington Commanders franchise, was selected second overall in 2024. While Daniels will undoubtedly win Rookie of the Year award after leading Washington to their first playoff win in twenty years, many questioned whether his style of play at LSU would translate into the NFL. As for year one, the answer is yes.
Drake Maye was selected third overall by the New England Patriots who have officially embarked upon their search for Tom Brady’s replacement. Maye didn’t start until the end of the season but at least in a small sample size, appears perfectly capable of giving it a run.
Michael Penix, Jr. went 8th overall to the Falcons in one of the more confounding draft picks of the summer, not because people doubted Penix’s talent, although some did, but because the Falcons had just signed Kirk Cousins to a multi-year deal. Once Cousins turned cold, the Falcons turned to Penix, who appeared ready to take the reins.
Michigan’s JJ McCarthy went tenth overall to Minnesota but saw no playing time due to injury. After the season Sam Darnold had, the Vikings will ultimately have a decision to make upon McCarthy’s return. Do they hold onto him until his rookie contract expires and re-sign Darnold for what he’ll likely warrant or turn to McCarthy with not a minute of NFL playing time?
Bo Nix went 12th to Denver, giving us the most talented quarterback class we’ve seen in years. Along with one of the best defenses in the league, Nix led the Broncos to the playoffs with some spectacular play and, if it weren’t for Daniels’ captivating season, would get consideration for Rookie of the Year.
We all brag amongst our friends about our drafting prowess in fantasy but for NFL GMs who do it for real, the wrong pick can sabotage a franchise and a career, not just the GMs but the quarterback’s as well.
Then there’s the case of quarterbacks who were taken at the top of the draft with high expectations, only to be considered a bust and find new life elsewhere.
The Rams took Jared Goff first overall in 2016, which was largely considered a two-quarterback draft between him and Carson Wentz. Despite taking them to a Super Bowl, and losing to the Patriots, the Rams ultimately traded Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, another number one draft pick. Ironically, the pick worked out well for both teams. The Rams won a Super Bowl that next year. The Lions now thrive under Goff. But did the Rams see in Goff the quarterback he is now, a man who was top five in touchdown passes, passing yards, quarterback rating and completion percentage? Unlikely not, or they would have held on to him.
The Cleveland Browns selected Baker Mayfield first overall in 2016. Mayfield landed on two other teams after finally finding a home in Tampa Bay and succeeding a legend at that position who took them to a Super Bowl. Mayfield went 1-5 as a starter in Carolina, then 1-3 in Los Angeles before taking the Bucs to the playoffs in consecutive seasons. Go figure.
And if you still don’t believe the inexact science of the NFL quarterback, Mayfield that year was selected over Sam Darnold (3rd overall to the Jets), Josh Allen (7th overall to the Bills), and a guy named Lamar Jackson, who was taken 32nd overall by the Ravens. Saying that worked out well for Baltimore is an understatement of a generation. Also taken in the first round that year, UCLA’s quarterback Josh Rosen, 10th overall to the Cardinals who, for some reason, was thought to be a better NFL prospect than Lamar.

And so, the cookie crumbles. For every sure thing like Joe Burrow, there’s another sure thing like Trevor Lawrence, who we’re now unsure of. Or there’s Patrick Mahomes, selected tenth overall, by Kansas City, eight spots lower than the Bears’ selection of Mitchell Trubisky. Can you imagine what would have happened to the Bears franchise had they seen in Mahomes what the Chiefs did? We’d be spared the visual of Caleb Williams slumped over on a bench after a debilitating losing streak, that’s for certain. Or maybe not. Maybe it would have been Mahomes who failed in Chicago without the coaching staff and surrounding talent he has in Kansas City. While that seems impossible to imagine after what we’ve seen from him three Super Bowls later, the only thing we know for certain about the NFL quarterback is that we really don’t know anything at all.
2025 presents two quarterbacks, Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, who will be selected at the top of the draft. As of right now, nobody on this planet can tell us with any certainty whether Ward, Sanders, both or neither, will succeed in the NFL.
They might immediately. They might never. Or it might take them a while to find the right groove. Andrew Luck, once thought the greatest quarterback draft prospect ever, was taken first overall in 2012. He led the Colts to four playoff wins before retiring after only six full seasons. Brock Purdy, drafted ten years and 261 spots later in the draft, also has four playoff wins. And when his contract expires at the end of next season, despite his early success, we still don’t know where he’ll be playing.
Or why, in 2000, 198 players, six of them quarterbacks, one named Giovanni Carmazzi and another names Spergon Wynn, were selected over the quarterback who retired with twice as many playoff wins as any other.

I suppose that’s what makes football so glorious and unpredictable, and so hazardous for the NFL GM, for if anyone could spot talent then any of us could do it.
This is actually not as inexact as you might think. Want a reasonable predictor of a rookie quarterback’s success? Look at the organization that drafts him. With the exceptions of guys who were destined to flame-out no matter where they went because they were head cases (Jeff George, Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, etc…), there’s a reason why so many “busts” come from the same “usual suspects.” There’s no better example of this than the Chicago Bears.
You hit on this yourself. We all know had Mahomes been drafted by the Bears, his ACLs would be scattered across Soldier Field like so many hot dog wrappers. You mention Jim McMahon as the Bears’ last “decent” quarterback, but we both know Chicago’s success in that era was more about a historic defense, an offensive line stocked with borderline Hall-of-Famers, and Walter Fucking Payton. The bottom line is the Bears’ simply do not understand the quarterback position. The list of names proving that is as long as the history of one of this league’s charter franchises, but the fact somebody in this organization once made a case for Peter Tom Willis as an NFL quarterback says it all.
But there’s a factor you missed. We must never forget that the “expectations” loaded on quarterbacks comes from the very same media who heaped scorn and derision on Andy Reid for moving up in the draft to take Patrick Mahomes. When’s the last time you heard any NFL talking head admit they were wrong? Somebody told the Bears about Peter Tom Willis, Rex Grossman, Shane Matthews, or whatever other “bust” you’d care to mention.
Oof…just realized that list is pretty Gator-heavy…
Brilliantly illustrated as always, sir.
One would think that, if this Williams experiment turns out to be a bust, the Bears would scour the earth to find a quarterback whisperer. I mean, it’s only the most important position in all of sports.
Agree with you 100% about NFL higher-ups not recognizing their ability to admit when they’re wrong. Perhaps group therapy is in order.
And I’ve always found it odd that the Florida program doesn’t churn out quality NFL quarterbacks. I mean, look at Anthony Richardson.