There’s an old Vaudevillian Henny Youngman joke (“Take my Magic, please!”) that tells of a guy who goes to a doctor and complains “Hey, Doc. It hurts when I do this,” wobbling his arm in a circular motion.
The doctor’s reply? “Well, don’t do that.”
There’s also the old Einstein adage that tells us insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Welcome to your 2024-25 Orlando Magic.
Once as high as a three-seed in the Eastern Conference, the Magic now reside in the 8-hole, and dropping, losers of seven of their last nine basketball games. Prior to that, through most of January and into February, they lost 11 of 13 games. This latest snide is no anomaly. It’s a trend and the sign of a bad basketball team.
What’s more disconcerting is the way they’ve lost these games and to whom. Sure, they’ll rattle off the occasional win against Milwaukee (March 8) or Detroit (Jan 25) but this team has very few signature wins, and why would they? They are a far cry from the top teams in the league. They recently lost to Cleveland by 40 and Boston by 27.
In a year where Nikola Jokic is once again doing things that no basketball player has ever done, where Shea Gilgeous-Alexander, an exciting young player, is about to win his first ever MVP, where Steph Curry continues to dazzle, where Luka Doncic and LeBron James embark upon their high-IQ basketball experiment in L.A., where the Boston Celtics chase the first repeat championship in almost a decade, where the Cavs have clearly progressed and remain a serious title contender, the Orlando Magic strut out the same old boring predictable nonsense.
The Magic have struggled with injuries this season. Paolo Banchero has missed around 30 games, Franz Wagner 20, his brother out for the season and Jalen Suggs remains sidelined. The team has floundered in Suggs’ absence. But every team in the league deals with injuries. This fails to explain why this team remains so reliant on only two men.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who both shoot under 47% from the floor, combine for 44.6% of Orlando’s shot attempts. Theirs is an unimaginative offense, relying far too heavily on only two players for the bulk of their shots. Neither of them is shooting as high a percentage as they should, which tells me two things: a) they’re putting up shots in double coverage because defenders know they’re the only ones taking shots and b) they’re taking shots they shouldn’t.
I looked to see which other contending teams are so ball-reliant on their top two players while still maintaining any semblance of success.
Newsflash: there aren’t any.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a good comparison. After all, the Magic and Cavs series went seven games in the first round of last season’s playoffs. Cleveland also has two players taking the bulk of their shots. But even Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland only take 38% of their team’s shot attempts. For the record, both are smaller than Banchero and Wagner and shoot a higher percentage.
The Boston Celtics are probably not as good a comparison as they are clearly more well-rounded and better constructed than Orlando BUT they also have two players taking the bulk of the shots. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown take 43% of their team’s shots, which is still fewer than Banchero and Wagner.
Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony-Towns combine for 39.4% of the Knicks’ shots. Milwaukee’s superstar duo of Giannis and Damian Lillard take 43% of the Bucks’ shots. It should also be noted that Giannis shoots 60% from the floor, attempting far fewer three-pointers than he has in the past. In Indiana, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam combine for 32% of the Pacers shots.
Out west, despite how ball dominant SGA is in Oklahoma City, he and Jaylen Williams only comprise 42.4 % of OKC’s shots. SGA is also shooting 52.5% from the floor, yet another reason he’s front-runner for MVP. Morant and Jaren Jackson take 35.6% of Memphis’ shots. Jokic and Jamal Murray take 39.9% of Denver’s shots. Only Luka and LeBron combine for nearly as high a percentage (44.3%) of their team’s shot attempts but let’s be honest, Paolo and Franz are no Luka and LeBron.
You don’t need a stat sheet to see that Orlando’s offense is woefully predictable, unimaginative and ultimately likely to cost head coach Jamahl Moseley his job, which is only partially unfair for while he’s the one allowing this to happen, he’s not the one who compiled this largely two-dimensional roster.
Maintaining nearly inexplicable faith in the players they’ve compiled, Orlando refused to make any moves at the deadline, a deadline which showed us that, at least in Dallas’ case, anyone is expendable. Instead, Orlando held steady, continuing to play bad basketball, which is unfortunate because when they play disciplined, they are difficult to cover. In their defense, it must be tiring constantly trying to get good looks with such little help. It’s no wonder Wagner and Banchero want to avoid contact and settle for the easy three. Both launch nearly six a game, which is far too many when shooting such a poor percentage. Franz Wagner ranks 167th in the league in three-point field goal percentage, Banchero is not much better. Yet up go the shots, twelve a game between the two of them.
Want more bad news, Magic fans? They are 27th in the league in shooting percentage, 28th in shots attempted and dead last in three-point percentage. They’re also 27th in rebounding. Night in and night out they are taking fewer shots than their opponent and taking worse shots, a surefire recipe for disaster. It’s a miracle this team is even in contention for a playoff spot. I can’t be the only one who sees this. Please tell me that people within the organization are aware of this trend.
Speaking of key statistics, here’s another one for you regarding Orlando but probably true for most teams in the league. Look at Orlando’s record when either out-assisting and out-rebounding their opponents, as opposed to getting out-assisted or out-rebounded. This isn’t rocket science. Crash the boards, get good looks, find an open man and please, for the love of all things holy and basketball-related, stop with the one-and-done possessions.
The Magic are going to have to take a long hard look in the mirror this off-season and determine what kind of team they are and what kind of team they want to become. They lack any sort of identity. I take that back. They have one and it’s painful to watch. They’re in dire need of solid guard play as well as a strong presence near the basket, both offensively and defensively. Once that happens, if it happens, Banchero and Wagner must follow suit, adjusting to a newer and hopefully improved roster, taking fewer shots and better shots.
This year’s slide will likely cost coach Moseley his job although the Magic organization is so inexplicably loyal to their own, they might keep him, which is fine. But there needs to be some accountability on this team, where now none exists. That includes from their top two players, their coach and the management and ownership that put this team together expecting them to win.
Otherwise, what’s the damn point?
