Waaaaay back in 2009, Michael Jackson passed away, Barack Obama was sworn in as President and Kanye West officially started his crazy by grabbing the microphone from Taylor Swift at the MTV Music Awards.
Far more culturally significant, this website was born.
Shortly thereafter, we hosted our first annual over/under contest. This year marks its 15th go-round, our quinciniera, if you will. We have a plethora of pinatas for the occasion.
Before we get to crowning last year’s champion and renewing our vows for this year’s contest, let’s look at some of last season’s biggest surprises and, more importantly, disappointments.
It’s rare that a team finishes 7 ½ games over its projected win total but the Minnesota Vikings did just that. With little faith in Sam Darnold, the Vikes finished the regular season with 14 wins when Vegas thought they’d win only 6 ½.
Other surprises included the Commanders, thanks to Jayden Daniels (12 wins; 6 ½ projected) and the Lions and Broncos. We knew the Lions would be good. We just didn’t think they’d rattle off 15 wins (their projected win total was 10 ½). And Denver surprised us all behind Bo Nix, winning ten games when Vegas only though they’d win 5 ½.
Now for the fun part. The Cleveland Browns somehow always find their way onto this list, which is only surprising in as much as anyone thinks they’ll ever be good. The Browns’ over/under last season was 8 ½. They only won three games. You do the math. Also finishing 5 ½ games under their projected total were the San Francisco 49ers.
The Jags and Jets finished 4 ½ games under their projected total. The Bears, Giants, Cowboys and Titans all 3 ½. If you see a playoff contender in this bunch, I have a hill of beans to sell you. See the sales rack near the back of the store where all their gear is hanging half off.
Now, onto last year’s over/under contest, only eight participants, seven blissfully eager in August, only one celebrating 11 months later.
In 8th place, the heaviest of all D’s. Heavy D (28 points out of a possible 55) had not enough faith in the Vikings and too much faith in the 49ers and Titans. His only saving grace was being the only person to correctly pick our tiebreaker. The Bucs, Dolphins and Jaguars combining for 22 wins. Better luck this year, D.
In 7th place, Sauze Bauze (30 points). A rare swing and a miss for Sauzy, a former winner of this contest, and one who is usually in contention annually. We’ll give him a pass on the trash-talking with the assumption he’ll be back. We don’t wanna piss the guy off.
In 6th place, yours truly (31 points). I won’t be so hard on myself as I won my fantasy league last year. Rest assured, I’ll be back as well.
In 5th place, BCole (37 points). She underestimated the Commanders (who didn’t?) yet has year-long bragging rights having finished better than the guy who runs this site. As she should.
In 4th place, J-Dub (41 points). Long is the way, and hard, that out of hell leads up to light. I’m not saying J-Dub is as creepy as Kevin Spacey’s character in Se7en. Wait, I have that backwards. I’m not saying Kevin Spacey’s character in Se7en is as creepy as J-Dub. There. That’s better.
In 3rd place, Deacon Blues (42 points). They call Alabama the Crimson Tide. They call this here third place.
In 2nd place, Ravenous (43 points). Another former winner. We can celebrate his greatness all he wants. Nothing will make him feel better about thinking the Dallas Cowboys would finish over their win total. It cost him this contest.
And finally, as much as I hate to announce it, the winner of the 2024 SportsChump Annual Over/Under contest is Kevin Stinkin’ Paul. The Wife Hates Sports and I Hate Him. With 47 total points, KP was all over it last year, including beating me handily in our weekly pick ‘em.
It’s okay. 2025 marks a new season, which is where you come in.
The rules, as always, are as follows…
Every year, Las Vegas releases their projected win totals for every NFL team. Your job is to select ten teams and assign them confidence points (ten being the most; one the least) for whether you think their final win total will be over or under that projected number. I will have a fancy prize for the winner.
Please list your predictions clearly in the comments section below. Remember, folks, there are 17 games in a season these days. All picks must be in by kick off, Thursday, September 4. As always, include your tiebreaker with your picks, which is the total combined wins by all three Florida teams.
Without further ado, here are this year’s over/unders. As always, good luck and may all your wagers be winners.
Arizona Cardinals – 8.5
Atlanta Falcons – 7.5
Baltimore Ravens – 11.5
Buffalo Bills – 11.5
Carolina Panthers – 6.5
Chicago Bears – 8.5
Cincinnati Bengals – 9.5
Cleveland Browns – 4.5
Dallas Cowboys – 7.5
Denver Broncos – 9.5
Detroit Lions – 10.5
Green Bay Packers – 9.5
Houston Texans – 9.5
Indianapolis Colts – 7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars – 7.5
Kansas City Chiefs – 11.5
Las Vegas Raiders – 7.5
Los Angeles Chargers – 9.5
Los Angeles Rams – 9.5
Miami Dolphins – 8.5
Minnesota Vikings – 8.5
New England Patriots – 8.5
New Orleans Saints – 6.5
New York Giants – 5.5
New York Jets – 6.5
Philadelphia Eagles – 11.5
Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5
San Francisco 49ers – 10.5
Seattle Seahawks – 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9.5
Tennessee Titans – 5.5
Washington Commanders – 9.5
The irony in being called “creepy” by a man who isn’t allowed within 1,000 feet of a petting zoo…
Seattle Seahawks – 7.5 Over
Tennessee Titans – 5.5 Under
Buffalo Bills – 11.5 Over
Indianapolis Colts – 7.5 Under
Baltimore Ravens – 11.5 Over
Dallas Cowboys – 7.5 Under
Houston Texans – 9.5 Over
Atlanta Falcons – 7.5 Under
Carolina Panthers – 6.5 Under
Jacksonville Jaguars – 7.5 Over
Tie Breaker: 19
And I play just what I feel .
The Bucs – 9.5 over
The Cowboys – 7.5 under
The Eagles – 11.5 under
The Commanders – 9.5 over
The Bills – 11.5 over
The Jags- 7.5 over
The Titans – 5.5 under
The Falcons – 7.5 over
The Dolphins – 8.5 over
The Seahawks – 7.5 over
“And finally, as much as I hate to announce it, the winner of the 2024 SportsChump Annual Over/Under contest is Kevin Stinkin’ Paul. The Wife Hates Sports and I Hate Him. With 47 total points, KP was all over it last year, including beating me handily in our weekly pick ‘em.”
Kevin S. Paul is correct – but it’s not “Stinkin'” – I’ll be back with my picks prior to the start of the season…
10 – Ravens – 11.5 over
9 – Commanders – 9.5 over
8 – Jets – 6.5 under
7 – Saints – 6.5 under
6 – Patriots – 8.5 over
5 – Vikings – 8.5 over
4 – Eagles – 11.5 over
3 – Chiefs – 11.5 under
2 – Cowgirls – 7.5 under
1 – Steelers – 8.5 under
Florida teams – 23
Alright, boys and girls, here we go…
And check this, nine out of my ten picks will be overs. I just see too many good teams with Vegas unable to catch up to their lines.
10 points on Bengals finishing over 9.5 wins. I know this is a team that traditionally starts the season 0-3, and I know this defense gets knocked as one of the worst in the league, but this offense has too much firepower. Give me Cincy and the ball last throughout the season and they’ll find a way to win over 9.5 games.
9 points on Philly to win over 11.5 wins. Weak division. They’re running it back. I bet Vegas would have loved to put this total at 12.5, and they probably should have. Philly will coast this season, the cream of the NFC class and get that win total by mid-December.
8 points on my Bucs to run through their division as well. Don’t see much competition here, so, homer pick, I’ll take the Bucs to finish with over 9.5 wins.
7 points on the Ravens to finish with over 11.5 wins. Same thing as all these loaded teams. Who is going to stop the Ravens from running roughshod over just about every opponent they play?
6 points on the Bills to finish with over 11.5 wins. I feel like a broken record here but like the Eagles and Ravens, Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league and a Super Bowl favorite. I’ll take them over.
5 points continuing along my good teams are good theory. Lions over 10.5 also seems like a safe play. I know they just lost their coordinators, but the talent remains on the field. Plus, they’re stewy about the way last season ended. Lions will be just fine and win over their projected total.
4 points on the last but not least good teams, I’ll take the Chiefs to win over 11.5 games. I mean, why wouldn’t they?
3 points on getting to the stinky. New Orleans has no quarterback. Their over/under win total is 6.5. Please explain. Or rather, don’t. Saints under.
2 points on the Chargers to win over 9.5 games. This team is just too disciplined. Further progress could be scary.
1 point on the Texans to bounce back from a disappointing out and win over 9.5 games.
Forgot my tiebreak.
Bucs should win their division and I see bounce back years for both Jax and Miami. After all, they can’t be any worse than they were last year.
Not sure we’ve ever predicted the three Florida teams to combine for over 30 wins so why not start now.
I’ll go 30 for the Sunshine State faithful.
10. Bucs – over 9.5
9. Saints – under 6.5
8. Steelers – under 8.5
7. Lions – over 10.5
6. Bills – over 11.5
5. Packers – under 9.5
4. Bengals – over 9.5
3. Chiefs – over 11.5
2. Ravens – over 11.5
1. Cowboys – under 7.5
Tie Break – 29
10 – Green Bay Packers – 9.5 – OVER
09 – New Orleans Saints – 6.5 – UNDER
08 – Washington Commanders – 9.5 – OVER
07 – Chicago Bears – 8.5 – UNDER
06 – Las Vegas Raiders – 7.5 – UNDER
05 – New York Jets – 6.5 – UNDER
04 – Tennessee Titans – 5.5 – UNDER
03 – Indianapolis Colts – 7.5 – UNDER
02 – Dallas Cowboys – 7.5 – UNDER
01 – New England Patriots – UNDER – 8.5
FL Teams (Tiebreaker): 25