Week One Pick ‘em: Kicking off the season with guesses, KP and Croshere

Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen, to Year Five of our weekly college/NFL pick ‘em, where we invite dedicated readers and dear friends to pick against yours truly and my counterpart, Mr. Kevin Paul, who runs that blog out in the suburbs: The Wife Hates Sports.

As we recently discussed, Mr. Paul got the best of me in last year’s contest, picking games at an impressive 57% clip.  That does not change the fact, however, that I lead this contest overall over the last four years (201-152, 56.9%) to Kevin’s (189-162, 53.8%).

It should also be noted that you, the readers, have been picking games at a 52% clip over that same time frame.  All in all, not too shabby.  Remember, all you need is to hit 52.4% of your bets to make sure your preferred casino does not add a new wing in your honor.

The purpose of this season-long exercise is to put our heads together and see where we were right and wrong.  It’s not only picking games that matters, it is how much we wager on these games that matters as well, which is why we designed this contest to include confidence dollars, betting $50 on the game we like the most, down to $10 on the one we like the least, for a total of $150 fake on the week.

Our $$ standings going into Year Five:

SportsChump $1560

Kevin $1270

Celebrity Guests $450

So again, good news, we’re making money, which I don’t have to remind you is the point of wagering on football.

Every week, we invite a special guest.  Be ready when your name is called.  I will do my best to give you plenty of notice.  As usual, to inspire you all, a SportsChump t-shirt will be sent to whichever gambler can go a perfect 5-0 on their chosen week.  It’s not as easy as it looks so be careful to all you parlay people.

Barber, DRealEmcee, Swoops, Rising Storms, Mr. Bradley, Darrel Harden, Brother Bill, Heavy D, TJ, Coach, Milhouse, BCole, Bobby Kady, Croshere, Lisa Horne, J-Dub and The Wife, I call upon you once again and thank you for your dedicated support to this website.

Croshere traditionally kicks things off for us in Week One.  Surprisingly, the seasoned gambler is 7-13 over the last four years for -$120.  Perhaps that’s because Week One provides us with such little information to go on, only hunches.  Don’t worry, kid.  I’m not sending Moose and Rocco to collect.  A solid week can put Croshere back in the red. 

But before his picks, let me have…

$50 on Miami Dolphins (+1 ½) at Indianapolis Colts

When it comes to stability, I’m all for it, as are most NFL teams.  Upsetting the applecart doesn’t always work in one’s favor.  With such little information to go on in Week One, we look for any kind of edge.  For me, it’s continuity versus change.  Let’s look at the Dolphins-Colts game.  Both these coaches are on the hot seat before they’ve even called their first play.  The Colts signed Danny Dimes this offseason because they weren’t pleased with Anthony Richardson’s progress.  This means Shane Steichen has to disrupt his entire game plan.  Down in Miami, there’s no seat hotter than Mike McDaniels’ BUT, and this is a big but, despite having a horrific 2024 season, the Dolphins are running this thing back.  They still have their two stud wide receivers, a quarterback that, when healthy, can get them the ball, and a running game that is shifty and dangerous.  Miami can’t possibly be as bad as they were last year and if they are, it’ll show early.  I just don’t think it will show this early.  There are too many question marks for me in Indy, so I’ll take a proven commodity, even though it’s proven sub-par at times.  At least I know what I’m getting.  Dolphins plus the 1 ½.

$40 on Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at Cleveland Browns

With all this talk about Cleveland Browns quarterbacks, I can’t believe they’re throwing out 40-year-old Joe Flacco in Week One yet again.  Pretty much every team in the league, except for the Saints, has a game plan at quarterback.  They either know who their quarterback is or know that they need one.  The Browns quarterback carousel continues, except that it’s one of those broken-down carousels at the annual state fair where even the carousel is frightening, never mind the roller coaster it took them only a day to build.  The Browns quarterback situation is part broken down roller coaster, aging and rickety in parts, and part carousel, pick a horse, any horse, it doesn’t matter because their heads are falling off.  I’m not sure how many Browns we’ll see take a snap at that position this season, but it promises to be unbearable yet again for their fan base.  I know I’m betting on a Bengals team that routinely comes out of the gate slowly, but all signs point to camaraderie in their locker room.  They got the Trey Hendrickson signing done and Burrow, Chase and company should put up video-game-like numbers.  I’m not sure how soon the wheels will fall off this Browns season but knowing they can’t start another season slowly, the Bengals will be the first to shovel dirt on Cleveland’s coffin.  Despite the Bengals’ porous defense, I don’t see how the Browns offense can keep up with Cincy’s.  Accordingly, give me the Bengals minus the five.

$30 on Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1 ½)

One can only hope that Sunday night’s matchup between two of the best quarterbacks we’ve ever seen, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, not only lives up to the hype but is a potential AFC Championship preview.  Of course, those living in Kansas City, Cincinnati and the other ten towns making up the conference are steadfast against this sentiment, but it’s hard to imagine the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens not being there, or at least near there, in the end.  For me, this boils down to home field.  Late Sunday night, we’re in for a great game.  Give me the team that has the ball last.  Give me the team that has the hard knocks hoopla.  It’s a shame that only one team can represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  I don’t know whether that will be Baltimore, Buffalo or someone else but I have a feeling Buffalo, with opening night home field advantage, playing in front of a crowd filled with desperate anticipation, will draw first blood late Sunday night.  I’ll take Buffalo home, plus the point-and-a-half.  

$20 on USF Bulls at Florida Gators (-17 ½)

USF opened the college football season at home to Boise State and surprised a bunch of skeptics.  Underdogs heading into the game, the USF Bulls left no doubt.  Boise State scored first and never scored again; the Bulls won 34-7.  The Florida Gators were equally as impressive against their opening patsy opponent, beating Long Island University by a lot to a little.  USF has narrowed the gap against its big brother over the years.  Although still 0-3 in the fledgling instate rivalry, USF lost to the Gators by only three points in 2022.  That win over USF was only Billy Napier’s third game as head coach.  Florida faithful hadn’t quite started calling for his head yet, but the boo birds were warming up their vocal cords.  My, how things have changed, then changed again in three years’ time.  Napier went from persona non grata to potentially turning this Gators football program around.  If the preseason hype is legitimate, this means Florida has had their pick of the transfer litter talent-wise to surround Heisman hopeful DJ Lagway with plenty of opportunity to score the football.  Florida’s defense is equally impressive.  Regardless of opponent, allowing under 100 combined yards while not committing a single penalty is noteworthy.  USF will bring far more talent than LIU, but it won’t matter against a team ready to see where they rank among the nation’s best.  Florida covers the 17 ½.

$10 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Atlanta Falcons (Over 47)

The Buccaneers have won four straight NFC South titles.  The up-and-coming Atlanta Falcons look to end that streak this year.  The Bucs, however, are still odds-on favorites to repeat as division winners.  These two face off in Week One in what should be a high-scoring affair.  The Bucs routinely put up points with the pass-happy Baker Mayfield, their offense ranked top five in most key categories last year.  Their passing defense, however, was middle of the road, allowing far too many yards through the air.  I foresee a shootout.  Despite not having Chris Godwin back, the Bucs should still be able to move the ball.  The Falcons want to prove they can move the ball as well.  They should.  This game goes over 47.

Week One Celebrity Guest: Croshere (Career 7-13, -$120)

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons

I realize going with a divisional rivalry as my top pick in the opening week is a bit aggressive. Yet, I’m going to honor the SportsChump here… and his Bucs. Tampa Bay was 4th in rushing yards allowed last season. This was a defense that meant business. Atlanta has fared well against the Bucs and has home field advantage. However, I don’t quite trust Michael Penix Jr. to deliver at this moment. Bijan Robinson will need to be the focal point and the Bucs will work to make Penix beat them. So in a way of honoring the Chump, I’m rolling with Tampa Bay. Bucs cover on the road.

$40: Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Saints open at home and that crowd is always juiced for football. Still, this New Orleans roster feels like it’s being set up to be at the front of the line for the Arch Manning sweepstakes. But KP, Arch didn’t do a lot in the opener against the Buckeyes? Yeah, that’s the college game. Do you remember Peyton (with Tennessee) facing the Gators? Oh man, I’m honoring the SportsChump again – what am I doing? This feels like an inadvertent curse. Getting back to the game, I trust the veteran players and explosiveness of the Cardinals when compared to the Saints. Especially when Zona just needs to win by a TD.  Cardinals cover on the road.

$30: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at New York Jets

Oh, the twisted NFL QB carousel. Aaron Rodgers was a star for so many years. Then he was hiding in the dark. After that, we just have images of him running out in New York holding an American flag. Now, he’s moved on from the Jets and joined the Steelers – and that process felt like it was absolutely frozen in time. Right? Did Rodgers retire or sign with Pittsburgh? Did we even care? Yet, the Jets have just found a way to be the Jets… and now they have Justin Fields, who was recently with the Steelers. So, who can you trust to plan better in that scenario? It has to be Mike Tomlin. Steelers cover on the road.

$20: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5) at Duke Blue Devils

This pool has always been a hybrid of picks between the NFL and College Football. So when we have full weeks of both, I try to make at least one pick in each. Sure, some of the blowout lines were tempting, but you never know how those games will pan out, especially when backups hit the field in the second half. So I stuck with one of the more evenly matched games. I know Bret Bielema and the type of hard-nosed, smash mouth game that he prepares for. I also know Manny Diaz as a defensive specialist that had a brief stay at Penn State. Yes, he will prepare for what Bielema is throwing at him, but in a close, hard fought game, I’m going with the ranked team that has the deeper roster. Illinois to cover on the road.

$10: Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Here we are. There are probably a dozen better options to choose from. Yet, what is sticking with me is this… how Bryce Young finished last season. He was a different player. Carolina was figuring things out. The Panthers added depth to the O-line and made some moves to help protect him. On the flip side, we know the misadventures of the Jaguars. We know the “Duval” speech from Liam Coen. Coen was also a bit of a snake with his shift to Jacksonville from Tampa Bay (again with the SportsChump support?). It just has a feeling that despite the home field advantage, Coen won’t quite be ready to make all the clean decisions in key moments. Give me the Panthers and the points on the road.