Week Three College/NFL Picks: Milhouse’s Extremely Level Playing Field

Perfection.

When we think of perfection, we think of things like the Sistine Chapel, the first two Godfather movies, Nolan Ryan’s fastball or the first 37 fights of Mike Tyson’s career.

We fruitlessly chase perfection, hoping just to be good enough or at a minimum, significantly better than average.

Well, folks, we experienced perfection last week, a rarity for this contest.

For the four plus years we’ve been hosting Pick Em, we’ve rewarded perfection when it occurs knowing how rare it is to achieve.

Only seven times have we combined to go a perfect 5-0 since this contest started back in 2021.  Kevin and I have both done it twice (Yours truly in Weeks 4 and 18 of 2024; Kevin in Weeks 7 and 16 of 2021).  Swoops went a perfect 5-0 in Week 9 of 2023.  Darrell Harden did so in Week 7 of 2022.  And the Barber went 5-0 Week 16 of 2022.

We can now add J-Dub to that short list.  We are currently embroidering a 5X Members Only Blazer in his honor, complete with elbow patches as I know he’s a slave to fashion.  Not only did Dubsy go 5-0 last week but his picks were never really in question.  So, kudos to you, sir, for getting off the snide.

Gamblers, this is exactly why we preach about the dangers of the parlay.  The lot of us have collectively gone 5-0 a paltry 3.6% of the time.  I’m not saying don’t put together five-teamers.  I’m saying do so at your own peril understanding how infrequently they hit.

Here are our updated standings.

This week, another man seeks perfection, mostly through the waiver wire in our fantasy league.  He’ll have to inch off his mediocrity to do so.  Milhouse is currently as even as they come in this contest, going 10-10 for exactly $0 which, ironically, is also the balance of his Hard Rock account after ill-advised jai alai betting.

But before we get to his picks, let me have…

$50 on Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2 ½)

A few NFL lines stood out to me this week, which means I’ll probably be way off.  But there’s no way in my mind that the Chargers, even on a short week, should only be -2.5 favorites at home to the Denver Broncos.  The Chargers have already handled two pretty good teams, the Chiefs and Raiders.  Their defense looks to be one of the best in the league and we’re all slowly starting to see the kind of quarterback Justin Herbert can become.  Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been struggling.  Bo Nix is impolitely introducing himself to the sophomore slump, or vice versa.  While their defense remains solid, I’m not sure it’s as solid as we’d expected.  Although the Colts are unexpectedly 2-0 and turning heads, last week’s is a game Denver should have handled yet didn’t.  So far in this early season, we’ve seen the better divisional team manhandle its rival opponents, (i.e., Bills over Jets, Ravens over Browns, Lions over Bears) reminding them of their place in the pecking order.  I expect a driven and well-coached Jim Harbaugh Chargers to do that this weekend at home against the Broncos.  Chargers minus 2 ½.

$40 on Dallas Cowboys (+1 ½) at Chicago Bears

We’re still at the point of the season where teams are either over- or under-valued based on public opinion.  The Cowboys are one of those teams.  They’re not as bad as the SportsCenters of the world would have you believe.  On the other hand, we’re still inexplicably hyping up the Bears.  In a game that many thought would be competitive last week, the Bears got absolutely annihilated by Jared Goff’s passing attack.  Friggin’ guy passed for five touchdowns and almost singlehandedly won everybody who started him their fantasy last week.  Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is still struggling to find his comfort zone.  I hate to break it to Chicago’s defensive war room (they have one?) but Dallas is just as pass happy as Detroit and it’s only a matter of time before Dak starts connecting with Lamb and Pickens.  The Bears are in a world of hurt already, leading Bears fans to start bitching about their team a little earlier in the season than they normally do.  Expect that bitching to continue as the Cowboys go into Chicago and win outright.  Cowboys plus 1 ½.

$30 on New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (- 5 ½)

Is anyone else around the nation watching these Cardiac kids and is anyone watching this version of Baker Mayfield and wondering how three teams passed on him?  Now on yet another offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, Mayfield is seeing opposing defenses like Neo at the end of the Matrix.  He owns the second longest steak in the nation for consecutive games with two or more passing touchdowns so keep betting that stat for money until it fails to hit.  My service currently has it at -140.  This week the Jets come in with Tyrod Taylor starting in place of the recently concussed Justin Fields.  While starting Taylor makes me more nervous than if they’d be starting Fields, the Bucs have too much firepower for the Jets.  This is the home opener for the 2-0 Buccaneers and the drunken pirates at Ray Jay will be fired up in support of their team.  One more week of practice means one step closer for Baker perfecting his timing with his rookie wide receiver.  I also look for Bucky Irving to have a field day.  Bucs minus the 5 ½.

$20 on Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Rams are good.  Sneaky good.  I like what I’ve seen from them so far this season.  Puca Nacua is an absolute nightmare cover.  This is a well-coached team, and Matt Stafford appears to be healthier than we’d thought, that back not giving him the problems that sidelined him in the pre-season.  That said, the Rams are not Philly good.  The Eagles appear to be going through the motions so far this season barely getting out of second gear.  That’s good enough to get them two wins, albeit by a total of seven points.  This should be another close one as the Rams are no slouch, but this might be the moment we see the Eagles hit third gear and stake their claim on one of the top seeds in the NFC.  Eagles cover the three.

$10 on Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (Over 50 ½)

The NFL enjoys fireworks.  They just don’t enjoy players kneeling for the flag.  But I digress.  Fans got an eyeful of those fireworks in Week One when the Ravens faced the Bills.  Neither team could stop the other.  Both offenses were downright frightening.  This Monday night, we’ll be treated to another matchup with similarly explosive potential.  The Detroit Lions would like to remind everyone that their Week One gaffe against the Packers was just that.  Their offense in Week Two opened things up against Chicago like a guy who’d been underwater too long gasping for breath.  While defense wins championships, offenses like Detroit’s and Baltimore’s can’t be stopped, at least not this early in the season.  This will be a don’t-blink-or-your-miss-it kind of game where Vegas can’t get the over/under high enough.  It opened at 50 ½ and has already climbed a few points on most services.  Baltimore should take this one at home but not before the Lions do their damnedest to keep things close.  Give me this game over 50 ½ and have your popcorn ready.

Celebrity Guest: Dr. Milhouse (Career: 10-10; $0)

1 point – Oregon/Oregon State over 55.5

Oregon, outside of that game with Northwestern, has been cranking out of the points, and the Beavers can’t stop anyone. Oregon may cover this number by themselves.

2 points – South Carolina +9.5 vs. Missouri

Mizzou hasn’t looked legit against three less than stellar teams. The Cocks win outright.

3 points – Bengals/Vikings over 42

Two backup QBs with the two best receivers in the league. This should be an old school Randy Moss “Just Chuck it on down there, dog” where the QB just Rex Grossmans the football toward the end zone every down.

4 points – Chiefs -6 v. Giants

One good game from Russell Wilson isn’t enough to make me forget how awful that offense is on normal days. Chiefs in prime time at 0-2 is going to be a demolition derby.

5 points – Packers -7.5 vs. Cleveland

Normalize betting against bad teams. The Browns stink out loud, and they’re not going to get better.

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns

I debated on whether to downgrade this one, but will leave it. Why the second guessing? The short answer is total defense, where the Browns rank first (191.5 ypg) and the Packers are 3rd (238.0 ypg). That could signal a low scoring defensive battle, but… it’s just two games. Also, Green Bay has faced two offenses with explosive playmaking ability (the Lions and Commanders). The Packers have also had a few extra days for rest and preparation. Plain and simple, Micah Parsons and the Green Bay defense have looked dominant to open the season, and that is likely to lead to numerous headaches for Joe Flacco and the Browns. Packers cover on the road.

$40: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

Speaking of strong starts, how about Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers? Quentin Johnston as a legit deep threat has really helped Justin Herbert and the offense. On the flip side, it hasn’t been an electric start for Bo Nix (44.6 QBR, 4 TD, 3 INT) and Denver’s offense. It’s early, but the Chargers rank 3rd in passing offense (270.0 ypg). The early turnover battle tells the same story (Chargers +2, Broncos -3). Oh, and let’s toss in one more early season stat: the Chargers lead the league in Red Zone defense (16.7%). Add in home field and balance on offense and I like the Bolts by at least a FG. Chargers cover at home.

$30: New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)

Justin Fields is out this week, leaving veteran Tyrod Taylor to lead the New York offense. Over the last two seasons, Taylor has appeared in three games, including last week (24-33, 175 yds passing, 4 TD, 0 INT). Dating back to 2018, Taylor has no more than 5 passing TD’s in a season. He’ll face Baker Mayfield and the Bucs on the road. When I picked the Bucs last year, it was always me wondering which Baker would show up. The Jets have allowed a 110.6 passer rating through the opening weeks. That ranks bottom ten in the league. Cook, Baker… cook. I love Tampa Bay’s firepower. Bucs cover at home.

$20: Illinois Fighting Illini (+6.5) at Indiana Hoosiers

This one stuck out for me, despite the risk. Perhaps it’s because I’m not a huge fan of Curt Cignetti. Talk about a guy who can barely get his ego to fit through the door. Indiana was overrated last season. This year’s opponents have been Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. Same story as 2024. The Illini, not much better, but a beatdown of Duke and Manny Diaz’s defense was impressive. Bret Bielema is known for his focus on a power run game. Indiana ranks 54th in run defense, facing those three opponents. Illinois is ranked 13th, but opponents have likely had to throw most of the time. Expect a close game here, as each tries to dominate in the trenches. Give me Illinois and the points on the road.

$10: Oregon State Beavers (+34.5) at Oregon Ducks

If you’re looking for a spicy rivalry, look no further than “The Civil War”. The Beavers have been abysmal. But that’s where rivalry games get interesting. There’s always a heavier desire to compete against your most hated opponents, no matter what the record. The Ducks could be looking forward to next weekend’s White Out test at Penn State, but I doubt it. This is lopsided on paper, but again, the rivalry aspect has piqued my interest. Oregon State’s pass defense (122nd) is likely to get torched and their run game (132nd) is unlikely to challenge Oregon’s biggest weakness. Yet, here I am, because the Ducks have to win by five – COUNT ‘EM – FIVE touchdowns. Give me Oregon State and the points on the road.