Week Six College/NFL Picks: Coach’s Calls to Keep Collaborators Cookin’

Elimination, surprises and home teams gone bad.

Last week, I bragged (bad idea) about how I was still alive in all four of my eliminator pools.

Then came Week Five and a clean sweep in memoriam.  Cue the Sarah McLaughlin music and sad, homeless puppy faces.

Eagles (home to Broncos), Rams (home to Niners), Bills (home to Patriots) and Chargers (home to Commanders), once thought safe picks all got bounced.  It was ugly. 

In fact, only four home teams won last week.  So much for friendly confines.

The good news is my counterpart was equally horrible picking games, so much so that I recommend you fade him until he gets his act together.  Our guests, however, are back to faring well.  At least someone is.

Here are our weekly standings.

Celebrity Guests: 14-10-1 +$120

SportsChump: 15-9-1 +$100

The Wife Hates Sports: 11-14 -$70

This week, we brought back Coach (Career 10-10, +$20) who likes gambling so much, you can find him texting me ping pong parlay advice at all hours of the morning.  Here’s hoping he cashes here like he does those ping pong tickets.

$50 on Indiana Hoosiers at Oregon Ducks (- 2 ½ Quarter One)

If you look at the top of the Big Ten standings, you’ll find three undefeated teams, Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon.  Two of those teams play each other this weekend.  Seventh ranked Indiana travels across the country to, yes, play a conference rival.  This is where we are with college athletics.  Oregon comes home after beating Penn State on the road last Saturday.  Their other games have not been close, winning their previous four by a combined 166 points.  Indiana has also been impressive with a 5-0 start, but struggled at Iowa, winning 20-15 in a stadium where no team is allowed to score more than three touchdowns.  These two schools have not met in over twenty seasons, meaning not only have none of these Hoosiers played in Oregon but they were probably not born the last time their school did.  Both quarterbacks are talented and incredibly efficient, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore combining to throw 30 touchdowns and only two interceptions.  While I like Oregon in this game, the sights and sounds of playing Eugene overwhelming for the newcomers, I’d like to remind you that you can wager on quarters, so let’s do that.  With the assumption that coming out strong might be too much to ask for this cross-country traveling Indiana team, I will take Oregon to cover the first quarter line of 2 ½.

$40 on San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (- 2 ½)

Ya know what?  I’m going to show a little faith in my home team.  With injuries galore, the Buccaneers have done the unthinkable, starting 4-1 with key players on injured reserve.  All Baker Mayfield has done in the meantime is vault himself into the MVP conversation.  His odds are down to nine to one.  Equally injured, the Niners upset the Rams last week with a gimpy Mac Jones leading the way.  I’m not sure who the Niners will be starting at quarterback this weekend, Mac Jones or Brock Purdy, but whichever they do, they’ll have to wheel him out like Hannibal Lecter on a dolly.  Mac Jones is probably still asking for a little more time in that ice bath.  This line, under a field goal, shows little faith in the Bucs and too much in San Fran, probably because of the disparity at running back with Bucky Irving still unavailable.  Expect a healthy dose of clock control from San Fran.  You’ll see plenty of Christian McCaffrey this weekend so if reception/rushing attempt props are your thing, you may want to look at those.  As ridiculous as this sounds, with as many injuries as these teams have had, the outcome of this game might determine the NFC’s top seed even though these teams have combined for an 8-2 record and a point differential of only 11.  With all that on the line, and the fact that the Lions will probably snake that top spot, knowing what’s at stake, I like the Bucs’ chances so I’m laying only 2.5 at home.  (Note: I wrote this before hearing Chris Godwin was also out, so tread lightly)

$30 on Los Angeles Rams (-7 ½) at Baltimore Ravens

Man, are the Ravens facing the Rams at the wrong time.  The Los Angeles Rams have had a full week and a half to stew over how they gave away last Thursday’s thriller to the Mac Jones-led Niners.  After that gutsy performance, Jones may have earned himself a starting gig with a new team as he looked sheer Terminator-like.  This week, the Ravens continue to start Cooper Rush whose name reminds me of those bad uniforms the NFL used to make teams wear on Thursday nights a few years ago.  This line is 7.5 and while I tried to find a service that offered the seven without the hook, I’m so confident the Rams will expose the banged-up Ravens that I’m not letting the half-point shake me off the wager (although you wouldn’t offend me if you told me you wanted to tease it down to 6 ½ in real life).  The Rams rank second in offensive yards per game, and Kyrien Williams will want retribution for all the footballs he coughed up last week.  Meanwhile, the Ravens are second in the league in yards allowed per game.  They can’t stop anybody, nor do they give the ball enough to Derrick Henry to control the clock.  Henry has only 64 carries this season, which is thirty behind the league leader Jonathan Taylor.  As much as Coach Harbaugh wants to stop the bleeding, his team isn’t healthy enough to do so and he’s going against a team that is livid about the way they lost last week.  I like the Rams to cover the 7 ½.

$20 on Rams over 27 total points scored

For the reasons we just discussed, the Rams will use this Ravens matchup as a scrimmage.  The Ravens do not have the personnel to stop anyone, never mind one of the league’s most potent offenses, starring the early favorite for NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, Puca Nacua.  I’m looking at multiple TD props for Stafford, Williams and Nacua as the Rams should not have any problems scoring.

$10 on Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-14)

Who would have ever thought we’d be excluding the Aaron Rodgers-led Pittsburgh Steelers from the AFC-North-is-a-dumpster-fire conversation yet thanks to the power of ayahuasca, they’re the only one we’re not talking about… yet.  Give it time.  Instead, the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns dominate the conversation, those teams going a combined 4-11, and even that futility doesn’t truly demonstrate how bad those teams really are.  The Browns are, well, the Browns, it’s expected, and while it’s easy to point to the Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson injuries as largely responsible for Cincinnati’s and Baltimore’s woes, it’s highly possible those teams were incomplete with them.  If any of these teams played in a real division this year, like the NFC North, they’d be staring at a top draft pick in the face.  They might be anyway.  The Bengals, who once had faith in Tom Browning, who one Bengals fan friend touted as the best backup QB in the league, will soon, or maybe as soon as Sunday look to Joe Flacco, who they just traded late round draft picks for.  Do you know how bad things must be to trade a starting quarterback within your division and have both teams be okay with it?  I’m not sure what’s worse, the Browns willing to send Flacco to a division rival or the Bengals desperate enough to start a guy the Browns just benched.  Not only that but Flacco flew coach to his destination.  No limos.  No pickup.  No private owner jet saying welcome to Cincy, Mr. Flacco.  Just a guy in a black suit and tie holding up a sign that said “Hello, Joe” with the last name misspelled with only one “C” and not two.  This is a damn Super Bowl MVP.  I know it was forty years ago but put some respect on his name.  (I’m kidding.  The viral online photo of Flacco flying coach was old… allegedly.)  Regardless of who is flying where, JaMaar Chase desperately needs someone to get him the football.  If Flacco even sees action, they’ll have to dumb down the playbook.  Chase Brown has been disappointing, and I say that not only because I drafted him in two of my fantasy leagues but because it’s true.  He’ll go against one of the league’s toughest rushing defenses.  Things will get worse in Cincy before they get better.  This has blowout written all over it.  Packers at home minus the 14. 

Celebrity Guest Picks: Coach (10-10, +$20)

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports – The Old School Edition

$50: Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Yes, I’m taking the Cowboys with my $50 pick this week – and NO, I don’t have a “blank-ing” dart in my neck. I realize that it is feast or famine with the Cowboys. Just look at the stats. Dallas is #1 in the NFL in total offense (406.6 ypg). Sure, fine… I’ll be thorough. Dallas is also dead last in total defense (412.0 ypg). Again, feast or famine. It’s been a few games, but Carolina is undefeated at home. The weather actually may turn on Sunday, with some wind and rain. Neither team protects the ball all that well (-3 turnover differential for each). I’m more looking to Javonte Williams (5.7 ypc) challenging Carolina’s defense in potentially questionable conditions and with a close line, I’m taking Dallas. Cowboys cover on the road.

$40: New England Patriots (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

So, wait… I’m taking Dallas and following with the Patriots? Which decade are we in?! To be fair, New England is finding its identity with Mike Vrabel running the show – and that’s not that surprising, to be honest. Weather won’t be an issue (dome). Alvin Kamara is currently in doubt and questionable for the game. Kendre Miller will be ready to go if he can’t play. But this is more about Drake Maye, who has completed nearly 74% of his passes on the season. Meanwhile, New Orleans is in the middle of the pack in total defense and in the bottom five in passer rating allowed. Patriots cover on the road.

And now, a trio of road teams that all feature blue in their uniforms… meaning that this week, the rally cry is going to be, “You’re my boy, Blue!”

$30: Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The stats are interesting in this game. Atlanta doesn’t do much for me, yet the Falcons lead the NFL in total defense (244.0 ypg). Sure, then what about rushing offense? Atlanta has Bijan Robinson and the Bills have James Cook and Josh Allen. Both teams rank in the top six in rushing offense, so that will be key to this game. What about opposing QB passer rating? Atlanta’s defense ranks fourth. But wait, who have the Falcons played? The answer is the Bucs, Falcons, Panthers, and Commanders. Ah ha, but Washington started Marcus Mariota. Maybe that explains the skew in the data, because overall, I love Buffalo’s talent and explosiveness much more. Bills cover on the road.

$20: UCLA Bruins (+8.5) at Michigan State Spartans

Sure, I’ll bite. Jerry Neuheisel looks like the kid that shows up at your doorstep to pick up your daughter for Prom – and you quickly slam the door seconds after opening it. Yet, here he is, family pedigree intact and fresh off a 42-point performance against Penn State. Now, we ask ourselves… is UCLA becoming last week’s team or are they more like the team that started 0-4? Who is Nico Iamaleava other than a vowel buyer’s dream on Wheel of Fortune? Nico completed more than 70% of his passes last week and also ran for 128 yards on the ground. That was against a Jim Knowles defense. Meanwhile, Sparty returns home after back-to-back double digit losses to Big Ten opponents on the road (Nebraska and USC). My gut says this will be close. Give me the Bruins and the points on the road.

Alright, earmuffs… we are about to talk Penn State Football – no idea where this could go.

$10: Northwestern Wildcats (+21.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions

I have a better chance covering myself in a Bounty paper towel than Penn State does at covering in a game. That’s how I feel about my alma mater currently. The Nittany Lions follow up last week’s travesty at UCLA by returning home to what is likely to be a very feisty and frustrated fan base. This should be a blowout, but will it be? Penn State’s offense looks lost. Press conferences seem to indicate minimal changes at key positions such as WR, LB, and RB. Kaytron Allen has been the most dominant PSU player, but is getting limited touches. If Franklin and the coaching staff adjust, this will be a blowout. But will they… and have they ever? Doubtful. Therefore, give me Northwestern and the points on the road.