Week Seven College NFL Picks: Long Lost Lisa Lays the Lumber

I’ve had a few requests for updated standings so here we go.

So far, our celebrity guests are holding their own, while Kevin is scrounging up spare change to pay off his bookies before they send Moose and Rocco.

This week brings another opportunity to get him out of his doldrums and for the celebrity guests to create some distance.

Celebrity Guests: 17-12-1 +$130

SportsChump: 17-21-1 +$90

The Wife Hates Sports: 13-17 -$80

We’re starting to see both parity, and clarity, in the NFL and this weekend’s college slate brings some juicy matchups so let’s get right to it.  Our guest this week from FOX Sports, Bleacher Report, Sporting News, Pigskin Grind, and pretty much every sports outlet known to man is our old friend Lisa Horne.

But first…

$50 on Ole Miss (+7.5) at Georgia Bulldogs

Have I told you about my Ole Miss future?  It’s tough for a program like Ole Miss to compete in the SEC.  In what was formerly the SEC West, they’d play Auburn, Alabama and LSU annually.  Those days are gone.  This season lines up perfectly for them to earn their first conference championship since, get this, 1963!  Ole Miss has yet to play in the SEC Championship Game which has been around since 1992.  This, my friends, is their best chance.  They must first, however, get past their next two games.  After that, it should be smooth sailing.  They’ve only had to play three ranked teams all season.  They’ve already bested LSU.  In two weeks, they will travel to Norman.  But this Saturday afternoon will be their biggest test.  Beat big bad Georgia.  Expectedly, Georgia is doing Georgia things.  Their only loss is a three-point stunner to Alabama, a game they should have won.  Georgia’s defense is good but not great and they are susceptible to the pass which is where Ole Miss thrives.  Don’t be fooled by Ole Miss scraping against Washington State.  Lane Kiffin has a few tricks up his sleeve he has yet to reveal.  He knows damn well this is his best shot at a conference title.  I fully expect him to pull out all the stops.  We’ll see if Ole Miss can match Georgia’s physicality but the last thing the Bulldogs want is Kiffin’s offense, down by one score with a final possession as the clock winds down.  I’m getting 7 ½ and have faith in Coach Kiffin.  And the good news is, if I lose this wager, that will tell Kiffin he can’t ever win at Ole Miss and will have to consider the upcoming Florida vacancy.  Rebels plus the points.

$40 on New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-4 ½)

Bears fans are excited, which is rare for Bears fans this deep into the season.  The Bears faithful are like any other fan base.  In September, they’re hopeful that this will be their year.  Then the season punches them in the mouth.  That happened yet again as the always-promising Bears started off 0-2, both losses coming to divisional rivals.  Since then, new head coach Ben Johnson has turned things around.  The Bears have won three straight games. To be fair, those three wins were against the mediocre Cowboys, the pretty bad Raiders and the we’re-not-quite-sure-how-good-they-are Commanders.  But this is the NFL and wins are wins.  Their Monday night comeback made the draft beer flow in Chicago like the swans of Capistrano.  The Bears are 3-2!  This week, they host the Saints who are 1-5.  If you exclude the bottom three teams in the AFC North, the Saints have one of the worst point differentials in the league.  These are not the Saints of old defensively and now must stop a Bears team that is top ten in scoring offense.  I love this game and am surprised the Bears are such small favorites against a team that is a few losses away from giving up on the season.  I’ll happily take the Bears minus the 4 ½ and would even consider laying more than that. (Note: stretch it to minus six for plus money)

$30 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-5 ½)

I really, really, really hate to do this but I must go against my boys this week.  All hail Baker Mayfield and the miracle he’s pulling off this season.  Mayfield, who has vaulted himself into the MVP conversation, has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5-1 and surprisingly, and unfortunately currently, the NFC’s top seed.  Shit, however, is about to get real.  Still missing their top three WR targets (although Mike Evans is rumored to return) and down their starting tailback, Mayfield has willed this team to victory.  This week, they travel to Detroit to play Monday night in front of a crowd of raucous Lions fans and a pissed off Lions team that just lost in prime time to Kansas City.  I fully expect the Lions to open one up on Tampa Bay, who are still allowing their fair share of points.  I don’t feel good about this one and while the Bucs have been winning, this might be too tall a task for Baker and the boys.  This is the perfect example of buy low/sell high.  Detroit minus the 5 ½.

$20 on LSU Tigers (+2 ½) at Vanderbilt Commodores

All those in Nashville were jumping for joy as Vanderbilt started the season 5-0.  They were scoring at historic clips too, putting up 45, 44, 31, 70 and 55 points.  The only problem is they weren’t playing anybody.  When they jumped out to a 14-7 lead at Alabama, we all turned our heads and thought “Hey, this Vandy team might be for real.”  They lost that game 30-14.  That ‘Bama game marked the beginning of a stretch where the Commodores play four straight ranked opponents.  This week, LSU comes to town and while this LSU team might not boast the firepower of their predecessors, they’re ranked 10^th and are no easy out.  They are stingy defensively, ranked fifth in the nation in points allowed, meaning Vandy’s high-flying offense will have to figure something out better than they did in that second half against Alabama.  ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Vandy as 60.6% chance of winning despite the paltry 2 ½ point spread.  What ESPN’s matchup predictor won’t tell you is that Vanderbilt hasn’t beaten LSU since 1990.  The Tigers have won ten straight contests.  Prior to that, you must travel back to 1957 to find the last time Vandy beat LSU, a 7-0 barn burner in Nashville.  Kudos to Vandy on a great season by their standards but when it comes to these matchups, I’m siding with the team that has more NFL-ready players.  Plus, I’m getting points so give me LSU +2 ½.  (Side note: I also like the under 48.5.)

$10 on Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+1 ½)

I can’t believe I’m doing this.  You know you have a problem when you bet on a game featuring the two worst teams in football.  Okay, the Panthers aren’t THAT bad, but they sure aren’t good.  And the Jets fans, well, they’re once again shouting “M-E-S-S!  MESS, MESS, MESS!” in the stands.  Last week, new head coach Aaron Glenn opted to go for it on fourth-and-eight instead of attempting a 62-yard field goal for a potential victory over Denver.  Rookie coaches will do rookie coach things.  The Jets are conceivably bad enough to go winless this season but if they are going to win one, this is one of those games.  The Panthers are undefeated at home but winless on the road and this game will be played at MetLife Stadium where drunk, angry New Yorkers will be grasping for any sort of joy after how abruptly their baseball season ended.  Here’s one more side note to convince you the Jets have a chance.  Although they are 0-6, four of their losses have been within a touchdown or less.  If they can somehow contain Bryce Young, they should stand a chance to give Coach Glenn his first win.  And if they can’t, you can probably shut the door on Justin Fields’ career as a starter.  A low over/under leads one to believe this game will be close.  Give me the Jets plus the 1 ½.

Celebrity Guest: Lisa Horne (Career 7-13 -$160)

My picks in bold, here we go………..

Georgia Tech +1.5 at Duke

The Jackets have stole my cold, cynical heart. When Georgia Tech is winning, college football is winning. OK, not really. But I love Tech destroying fans’ delusions of grandeur almost on a weekly basis. Sorry, Duke. The Yellow Jackets win outright.

Maryland +2.5 at UCLA.

Do I think UCLA has improved? Not really. Do I think OC Jerry Neuheisel is the answer to the Bruins pulling off a streak? Not really. Do I think the Bruins have home field advantage at The Rose Bowl? Definitely not. But at least the weather will be nice when the Terps pull a back-door cover.

USC +9.5 at Notre Dame

USC rightfully feels disrespected in the polls. USC has one loss and is ranked No. 20 while the Irish have two losses and are ranked No. 13. While Notre Dame is a very good football team, they have still lost one-third of their games. SC and its No. 2 offense not only covers, but wins outright.

Oregon -17.5 at Rutgers

The Ducks are pretty embarrassed after losing to Indiana last week. Unfortunately, Rutgers drew a bad week to play an angry Duck team. Note- if the Ducks do not win, I—and pretty much all of college football nation—never, ever, ever want to hear any more Duck fans tell me they are for real. I have had it. All talk and no results are getting tiresome. Prove me wrong, Oregon, prove me wrong.

Memphis -21.5 at UAB

Memphis has an incredible offense (450 yards per game/6.6 yards per play) and although I hate that spread—winning by three touchdowns won’t cover—I do like the Tigers overwhelming the Blazers, who are ranked in the bottom 10 of all FBS defenses. Memphis may cover by the half.

Lisa Horne

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans

Mike McCoy steps in as interim head coach for the Titans. It’s always interesting to see how a team responds following a firing – and it tends to be a bit risky when picking games. Yet, as you’ll soon see, I’m taking a chance on two games this week. When it comes to this game, it’s more the play of Drake Maye than Tennessee’s coaching situation. During New England’s three-game winning streak, Maye has completed 74% of his passes and thrown five touchdowns with no interceptions. On the flip side, the Titans rank dead last on offense (232.3 ypg). McCoy is an offensive mind, which is clearly a need, but does he have enough tricks up his sleeve to hang with Maye and the Pats? I doubt it. Patriots cover on the road.

$40: Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Eagles have lost two straight. What’s going on in Philadelphia? No panic needed. There’s simply too much talent on this team. Philly just needs to get Saquon Barkley rolling and controlling a game on the ground. Enter the Vikings defense, which ranks in the bottom ten (132.2 ypg allowed). This could be just what the doctor ordered. Defensively, the Eagles have held quarterbacks to a 83.0 passer rating, which is sixth best in the NFL. Carson Wentz will have his hands full dealing with Philly’s potent attack. Road game or not, this feels like a bounce back week for the reigning Super Bowl champs. Eagles cover on the road.

$30: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-4.5)

I saw a stat somewhere that listed the Chicago Bears as the only team to score at least 21 points in every game this season. Ben Johnson has had this offense cooking at times. Last week, Chicago moved the ball with ease against the Commanders, both on the ground and through the air. On the flip side, only three teams score less than the Saints. New Orleans ranks in the bottom ten in total offense. Spencer Rattler has performed well and protected the ball, throwing only one INT this season. This is more a pick to promote Ben Johnson’s offense playing at home. Bears cover at home.

$20: Ole Miss Rebels (+7.5) at Georgia Bulldogs

It’s Lisa Horne week. I had to include at least one big College game. She’s always talking about Lane Kiffin. OK, maybe not always, but enough. Facing top ten teams this season, Georgia has been in tight battles both at home and on the road. Another close game seems likely. I’m most interested in seeing how Georgia handles the Ole Miss passing offense. The Rebels rank 9th in yards per game (311.0) and 6th in yards per attempt (10.0). These two teams have combined for 17 sacks on the season. Is that a sign that the QB’s could stay well protected? Maybe. Either way, QB’s making big plays and consistently getting into short and manageable situations will be key. Give me the Rebels and the points on the road.

$10: Penn State Nittany Lions (+3.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes

James Franklin is out. Terry Smith is the interim head coach and he’s said all the right things. Drew Allar (ankle) is out for the season. Enter redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer. Penn State has been the biggest disappointment in College Football. I’ve picked against them all year. What made me change this week? Well, for one, when the line hit 3 1/2 points – that was more enticing. But more so, if not now, when? This team should be out to prove something. I’m also curious just how much Franklin was holding them back. As in, time on the field for younger guys, as well as play calling. I expect new faces, new wrinkles, and enough big plays to keep this game close. Give me Penn State and the points on the road.