Let’s discuss “the hook” for a moment, shall we?
It’s generally annoying to hear an amateur gambler use this expression, offering up verbiage like “seven-and-the-hook” or “I lost by the hook,” so what does it mean when they say that?
The “hook” signifies the half a point that Vegas assigns point spreads to ensure that wagers don’t end in a push or a tie.
You can say “seven-and-a-half” or “I lost by a half point” and mean the same thing but sometimes gambler speak gets the best of us.
Why do I bring this up this week?
Because all three of us, Kevin, Lisa and yours truly all lost at least one game last week by the dreaded hook.
Kevin and I both had Ole Miss covering the seven-and-a-half, or seven-and-the-hook, against Georgia. Coach Kiffin’s Rebels were leading the Bulldogs by nine headed into the fourth quarter… and ended up losing by eight. Georgia scored 17 unanswered.
The line, again, was 7 ½. There’s your hook.
Coach Kiffin is not returning any phone calls, which is unfortunate because half of those calls are coming from the University of Florida asking him about their job opening.
Poor Lisa had two hooks in the mix and lost both. She had Maryland +2.5. The Terps lost by three to UCLA after the Bruins put up a fourteen-point fourth quarter. She also had USC +9.5. The Trojans lost to Notre Dame by ten.
You may have heard the expression “back door cover” which is also appropriate in this weekend’s outcomes. The backdoor cover refers to a team covering the spread at the end of the game with a meaningless touchdown, yet we gamblers know there’s no such thing.
I wish I had some words of wisdom for you or perhaps even some hook repellant. There’s not too much we can do about the half-point other than marvel at how frequently it comes into play. It’s not always bad. I’ve won plenty of games worth bragging about by the half point. Just not this weekend.
But enough about the past. Let’s try and win some games by the hook this weekend as turnabout is fair play.
Let’s start with…
$50 on Green Bay Packers/Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 44 ½)
We haven’t experienced much in the way of Aaron Rodgers drama yet this season. All he’s done, rather surprisingly, is lead his Steelers to a 4-2 record, which is good for best in the AFC North, as all the other teams in their division lost their starting quarterbacks to either trade or injury. The Steelers, as expected, run an efficient offense. Rodgers ranks fourth in the league in touchdown passes and eighth in the league in completion percentage. His once-upon-a-time-understudy, Jordan Love, will lead Rodgers’ former Packers, now his team, into Pittsburgh this weekend and, if you recall, it wasn’t all that long ago that both Love, and Green Bay fans, were chomping at the bit to get the kid to replace the old man. The only problem is that the old man was still outplaying Love. This wasn’t all that long ago. We all know what happened next. Love proved to be perfectly capable, Rodgers got traded to the Jets and then Pittsburgh after a quick visit to the doctor’s office to repair a torn Achilles. Both teams now have their happy ending, but it took a few years for us to get there. This Sunday, Rodgers will play against his former team for the first time and there will undoubtedly be butterflies on both sides. I believe those butterflies will result in points scored. The competitor in Rodgers will want to prove to his former organization that he’s still got it and the kid who could never get past Rodgers on the bench will want to prove Green Bay made the right decision. It won’t surprise me if both quarterbacks take stabs, and both coaches draw up game plans, that allow this to happen. As good as Pittsburgh has traditionally been defensively, they are susceptible to the pass. This is a Sunday night game in Pittsburgh where sharps bet over, so I am too, expecting these two to air it out with a little something to prove. Packers/Steelers over 44 ½.
$40 on New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-3 ½)
Revenge games can be tricky. Are players nervous? Do they have some lingering vendetta? Have they moved on? And how long does the resentment linger? Let’s take Joe Flacco for instance. I’ll be the first to admit I had counted out Joe Flacco. Yet at 40 years old, mix in a little JaMaar Chase and he looks like new. Flacco played three seasons for the Jets, serving as a back up to both Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson. Flacco started only nine games in three seasons, so there’s probably not too much bad blood for a veteran like Flacco who is still starting while Zach Wilson is sidelined on the Dolphins bench. Flacco is probably wondering what he deserved to have Jets, Browns and Bengals all on his resume but there’s no denying he’s going out with a bang, a temporary Band-Aid until the other Joe Cool returns. I expect more of what we saw last game with Flacco looking for (JaMaar) Chase and Chase (Brown) every chance he gets. Meanwhile, and this should come as a surprise to no one, the Jets still have a quarterback controversy. While we wait to officially close the door on Justin Fields, the Jets owner has publicly blasted his quarterback for his inability to complete passes. I mean, Woody Johnson is just reporting what he sees, which is a pretty accurate assessment of Fields. Fields ranks 23rd in the league in completion percentage and 30th in passing yards. The good news for Fields is that he will play against a porous Bengals defense that, if he can’t score against, he might want to pick up a copy of Quarterbacking for Dummies. The bad news is that the Jets’ defense is not much better, allowing 26 points per game. The more I talk about this game, the more I like it over. Flacco will throw to the Bengals receiving corps until his arm comes out of his socket and Fields is fighting for job security. Traditionally, these Bengals shouldn’t be laying three-and-the-hook against anybody, but the Jets are just that bad. Bengals minus.
$30 on New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44 ½)
Ya know what, I talked myself into it. Let me have Bengals/Jets over 44 ½ because neither team will be able to stop the other.
$20 on Dallas Cowboys/Denver Broncos (Over 50 ½)
I feel like I’m going to the well far too often here. I can’t confirm this but I’m pretty sure every Dallas Cowboys game has gone over this season. If not, it’s been pretty darn close. The over/unders were listed around the mid-40s for their first few games and it took a while for Vegas to catch up to Dallas’ offense. They’ve scored 40, 37, 27 and 44 in their last four games. They also put up 40 against New York in Week 2. Denver’s will be the best defense they play but the Broncos did allow the Giants to score 32 against them last week. Something will have to give here as the Cowboys rank top in the league in yards per game and Denver ranks third in yards allowed. The over/under is 50 ½ which is only that low as they’re giving credit to Denver’s defense. If Bo Nix can score two rushing and two passing touchdowns in a single quarter against the Giants defense, there’s no telling what he’ll do at home against Dallas, leaving Dak to sling it around the yard to try to catch up. I’m going to play Cowboys overs until these tickets no longer cash. Dallas/Denver over 50 ½.
$10 on Texas A&M at Louisiana State Tigers (+2 ½)
Night games at Death Valley. I’ve been there, man. The Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators were poised to win another national title. Then they went to Baton Rouge. One poorly thrown ball down the middle of the field led to a pick. Four fourth down conversions later and LSU had toppled the almighty Gators. This week, it’s Texas A&M’s turn to see what that’s like. The third-ranked, undefeated Aggies travel to experience what that stadium is like at night. It ain’t fun. LSU already has two losses, both by a touchdown or less to Vandy and Ole Miss. Both those games were on the road. A&M has undoubtedly been impressive with wins at Notre Dame and Arkansas, but both those games were squeakers. Their next two games will determine their season as after Death Valley, it’s off to Missouri. I was impressed with how Vandy handled LSU last week. The Tigers hadn’t lost to the Commodores since the 90s. Same deal here. A&M hasn’t won in Death Valley since 1994. Is LSU about to break two streaks to two schools in two weeks? It’s time for Garrett Nussmeier to prove he’s worth the hype of an early round draft pick. I’ll take the home team plus the points as LSU bounces back.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints
My lone NFL pick of the week is the Bucs and Baker Mayfield. Baker is short some of his key weapons, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and more. That is known. It’s also a road game in New Orleans. Still, the Saints rank in the bottom ten in total offense (297.9 ypg) and have some injuries of their own to deal with. Spencer Rattler has been efficient under center, but New Orleans just doesn’t have the weapons to consistently compete with stronger opponents. I expect Baker Mayfield, combined with Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, and Tez Johnson to do enough offensively to hold off the Saints. Bucs cover on the road.
$40: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
Kalen DeBoer is figuring out the Alabama pressure cooker. It’s not easy to follow legends. The Crimson Tide have four straight wins against highly ranked teams (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee). It’s hard to imagine a road game against a struggling South Carolina team would change anything, but you never know in the highly competitive SEC conference. The key matchup will be Alabama’s passing offense (12th in ypg, with 22 TD, 1 INT) facing South Carolina’s passing defense (29th in yards/game allowed, with 7 TD allowed, and 8 INT). That’s the key – and I’m looking to DeBoer and his top five ranked Crimson Tide to figure this out and pull away in the second half. Alabama covers on the road.
$30: UCLA Bruins (+26.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
The critics are all in on the Hoosiers. They are also stating how opposing teams are starting to figure out UCLA since their resurgence. Sure, study the tape and start to figure things out. I get it. But figuring out the tape in the form of a four touchdown win? That I’m not so sure. I think this comes down to Nico Iamaleava and how much of an impact he can make through the air and with his feet. Iamaleava has averaged a measly 2.0 yards per carry over the last two weeks, and Indiana likely will focus on keeping him in the pocket. IU ranks 7th in total defense. So again, the Hoosiers are a force this year, but four touchdowns is a tall order against a red hot UCLA team. Therefore, give me UCLA and the points on the road.
$20: Syracuse Orange (+17.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
It has been a bit of an up and down road for Syracuse this year. This pick is more results driven. Georgia Tech remains undefeated, but by the skin of their teeth. Not to simplify things, but sometimes you just have to. GT’s two big wins were against Gardner-Webb (59-12) and Temple (45-24). The other five victories for the Yellow Jackets are by an average of seven points (ranging from 1 to 15 points per victory). Statistically, Georgia Tech has the 19th ranked offense, while Syracuse has the 116th ranked defense. As a result, the line doesn’t shock me. Still, I’m sticking to standard results on this one – straight data. Fran Brown will have his team fighting hard. Give me Syracuse and the points on the road.
$10: Stanford Cardinal (+30.5) at Miami Hurricanes
Carson Beck was having a great season – until Louisville’s defense shut him down. The 71.4% completion percentage was strong, but Beck’s four interceptions (with no TD passes) was not great – obviously. Now, Beck and the Miami offense resets against a Stanford team looking for a new identity. The Stanford defense ranks 118th in the nation, allowing 422.0 ypg. The real struggle is against the pass, where Stanford has just 1 INT and ranks 134th in yards allowed. Against the run? The Cardinal are not all that bad. So this game comes down to whether Beck can have a quick bounce back. He likely will, but will it be to the tune of a five score victory? That I’m not so sure. Give me Stanford and the points on the road.
Week 8 Football Picks: THE WIFE (Career 4-10, -$160)
THE WIFE is back, guys. Expect nothing but next level analysis from here on out.
$50: Virginia Cavaliers (-10.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels
Are they going to fire him yet? Is his arm candy going to be there?
She asks real questions, guys.
$40: Green Bay Packers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I have nothing to say.
We have lots of family from the land of cheese – so I’ll add that in. Plus, she knows they are good.
$30: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
They are always good, right?
Lately, yes – she’s not wrong.
$20: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-14.5)
I don’t have much to add, I was told to make picks. Google did tell me that the Colts had the best record in football, so here we are.
If I started talking about Daniel Jones now, she’d roll her eyes and pass out.
$10: Wisconsin Badgers (+31.5) at Oregon Ducks
OMG really?
For the record, that was her response after hearing the line and originally wanting to pick Oregon.
I think Wisconsin is going to stink, but they aren’t going to lose that bad.
Honestly, I can’t argue with this – and my family from Wisconsin can’t either.
