I’m proud of myself. Pats self on back.
Last week, I took my time to delve through a limited slate of games. I found wagers I liked, placed them and struck gold. It was my third most accurate, and profitable, week of the season. If it weren’t for a nearly inexplicable collapse by the Cincinnati Bengals, giving Aaron Glenn and the Jets their first win of the season, and LSU playing so poorly that they fired their coach, and later that week their AD, I would have cleaned house. The Hard Rock is begrudgingly constructing a new casino wing in my honor.
As one who likes to diversify their wagers, I hit on (deep breath) Memphis, Wake Forest, BYU, Caleb Williams over rushing yards, Joe Flacco over passing touchdowns, Joey Bosa over sacks, Ed Oliver over sacks, Eagles minus, Eagles minus adjusted, Javonte Williams anytime touchdown, Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown, JK Dobbins rushing yards, Hunter Henry and Dallas Goedert anytime touchdowns, Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown, DK Metcalf anytime touchdowns, Packers/Steelers over, Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns and over Rodgers/Jordan Love touchdowns for 18 separate wagers. Pats self on back again.
The guy you saw leaving the Hard Rock Casino with a wheelbarrow full of cash, a smile on his face and a freshly lit cigar, that was me. Remember, children, if you’re in a state that allows wagering you don’t have to bet only on game outcomes. There are props galore. Just be cautious about parlaying too many together and not leaving yourself escape hatches. That’s exactly what these services want. They want you to re-up, not cash out. There is nothing wrong with cashing tickets on straight plays. In fact, that’s exactly what you’re supposed to do.
Sift through the information at hand, make your best educated guess and strike.
Here are our year-to-date standings:
SportsChump: 22-17-1 $130
Celebrity Guests: 22-17-1 $110
The Wife Hates Sports: 18-22 -$20
$50 on Arizona Cardinals/Dallas Cowboys (Over 52 ½)
This is simple. I am going to bet on this exact wager until it doesn’t cash. Vegas still can’t get their over/unders high enough to catch up to the Dallas Cowboys. We’ve been over this. Despite their lackluster performance against the Broncos, this is a team that is top three in offense. They are also, however, bottom three in defense by just about every statistical measure. Only one team in the league, the Cincinnati Bengals (153), has allowed more points than the Dallas Cowboys (150). To put it bluntly, they cannot stop anybody. The over/under against the Cardinals opened at 52 ½ and I jumped on it. I looked again hours later, and it was already 53. My service now has it at 54 and while the betting public is usually wrong and moving lines in the opposite direction, that’s probably not the case here. Despite how anemic the Cardinals’ offense is, whether it’s Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett playing quarterback, it won’t matter and it won’t surprise me to see this line continue to climb, for no opposing offense is anemic against the Cowboys. They’re allowing over 400 yards a game, over 31 points per game to opponents, and a season-high fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I’ll say it again, give me every Cowboys/Random Opponent game over the number until it doesn’t hit. Cards/Cowboys over 52 ½.
$40 on Indianapolis Colts (-2 ½) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Every week, I go over the lines to see how close, or far away, I am from Vegas’ number. Usually, I’m close. Occasionally, I’ll whiff. Either way, I’ll take this information and use it accordingly. This weekend, I was way off on the Colts/Steelers. I had just watched the Steelers struggle to put up points against a Packers team that had turned up the effort defensively. The Steelers got run out of their own building. Once a shoo-in for the AFC North crown, which this year will be bedazzled due to the quality of its constituents, things have gotten a little dicey in Mister Rodgers’ Neighborhood. This weekend, the division’s “best team” hosts this year’s surprise team: the Indianapolis Colts. Behind Daniel Jones (top three passing yards), Jonathan Taylor (first in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns) and Tyler Warren (leads all tight ends in receiving yards), the Colts hold the AFC’s best record and boast the league’s best point differential by a substantial margin. It took me nine weeks to jump on the bandwagon, but I am finally a believer. The Packers, who are good but at this point of the season not Indianapolis Colts good, were two-and-a-half point favorites heading into Pittsburgh. So why would a team that is at least currently better than Green Bay favored by the same amount? This makes no sense to me. So, I’m playing it. Steelers are one-dimensional. The Colts are not. The Steelers aren’t good on defense. The Colts are. The Steelers snide rolls on. Colts minus the inexplicable 2 ½.
$30 on South Carolina Gamecocks at Ole Miss Rebels (-11 ½)
After news came that LSU had fired Brian Kelly, the Tweet of the Week goes to a gentleman who joked “How is Lane Kiffin going to coach four teams?” That’s because Ole Miss’ Coach Kiffin, college football’s current hottest commodity, will be linked to every job opening from here to Timbuktu. Rumor has it that Florida is opening their coffers (to the tune of $13.5 million a year) and LSU will also undoubtedly be interested. They’ll just be cash-strapped after having to pay Kelly $54 million to leave town. Can you imagine not wanting something that badly? Anyway, Ole Miss still has the slightest hopes alive for a conference championship, but they’ll need some help. They’ll get that help this week when hapless South Carolina comes to town. Don’t be fooled by the Cocks giving Bama a run for their money last week. That was their Super Bowl. The difficult part of Ole Miss’ schedule is over. It’s smooth sailing from here on out. They will finish 11-1 and yes, that includes a win over Florida, whose buses Kiffin will sneak a rejection letter into as they head back to Gainesville after they play. Ole Miss, and their coveted coach, cover the 11 ½.
$20 on Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+2)
We finally get the matchup we want. Don’t get me wrong. We’ve seen some good football this season. We’ve also seen some atrocious football. Same as it ever was. This weekend’s marquis matchup features the league’s two best quarterbacks that are not named Daniel Jones. I’m joking. Kansas City, who has been on a tear lately, heads to Buffalo, where the table jumpers will be waiting. BCole looked at this line and asked me why the Bills were home dogs. I basically explained it the best I could, that the Chiefs were on a heater and the Bills, by most appearances, still looked to be putting things together. If I were to tell you that neither of these two teams is leading their division, would you believe me? After losing to the Jaguars a month ago, the Chiefs have won their next three games by 64 points. The Bills lost two in a row but bounced back by dismantling the Panthers. In short, I suppose that’s why the Bills are dogs. They’ll turn things around this weekend. Besides, this is what the Bills do. They win meaningless games against the Chiefs mid-season only to host them in the playoffs and, well, you know what happens then. Bills win this one, but I’ll be taking the 2 points for good measure.
$10 on Kansas City Chiefs/Buffalo Bills (Over 52)
Without getting into too much detail, when you get the two best players in the game (again, not named Daniel Jones), expect them to ball the heck out. The last three times these teams have played, the Bills and Chiefs combined for 61, 51 and 51 points. To quote Bruno Mars, these two show up, show out, smoother than a fresh jar of Skippy. As fired up as they might be, can you imagine these defenses stopping these two possessed quarterbacks who want to prove more than anything else that they’re the better quarterback? I can’t either. This game goes over 52.
Celebrity Guest: TJ (Career 11-9, $20)
Hope I’m not too late. Here it goes:
- Broncos +1.5
- Bills +2
- Cowboys -2.5
- Seahawks -3 5
- Lions-8.5
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) at Tennessee Titans
L.A.’s offense is really clicking. Not many teams can take so many injury hits in the ground game, only to come out with a guy that looks like a #1 back. That’s Kimani Vidal, who is averaging 5.2 ypc and has two 100-yard rushing games in the last three weeks. Add in the emergence of TE Oronde Gadsden II and the Chargers have offensive weapons all over the field. Meanwhile, the Titans have scored 14 points or less in five of their eight games this season. Tennessee is dead last in offense (248.8 ypg) and ranks in the bottom ten defensively. With the second most giveaways (13), the Titans are sure to hand over opportunities to the explosive Chargers. This could get ugly quick. Chargers cover on the road.
$40: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
The Lions are 3-0 at home and have outscored opponents 110-40 in front of the home crowd. That’s one of the primary reasons for this pick. Only the Colts and Cowboys are scoring more points per game. On the flip side, Minnesota has been very inconsistent offensively and with its QB play. J.J. McCarthy returns from injury for the Vikings, but hasn’t played since September 14th. In his two games, McCarthy has a 58.5% completion percentage and a 21.6 QB rating. The Vikings rank in the bottom ten in total offense. It’s a divisional rivalry and the Vikings desperately need this one to get back in the picture. That desperation could lead to something, but I’m not biting. Detroit is simply too strong. Lions cover at home.
$30: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
What a story the Colts are! Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones, and Tyler Warren, among others. Indy is averaging just under 34 points per game, while allowing fewer than twenty. Jonathan Taylor has four 100-yard rushing games and three 3-TD games. He will be a handful for Pittsburgh’s rushing defense that ranks in the middle of the pack. The Colts are +8 in turnover differential, which is second best in the league. Indianapolis has just 4 giveaways on the season. Only the Packers and Eagles have fewer (3). Aaron Rodgers is having a strong season in Pittsburgh, but I don’t think the Steelers have enough firepower to stick with the red hot Colts, even at home. Colts cover on the road.
$20: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at New York Giants
Jaxson Dart (8 TD, 3 INT, 61.4 QBR) has played well as a rookie for the Giants. There’s no doubt that he will keep New York in the game. For me, this game comes down to Christian McCaffrey (and not just in the ground game, but also the short passing game). The Giants should – and likely have – watched the tape from last week, where CMC was mostly held in check by the Texans. Two weeks ago, McCaffrey finally broke through in the run game, with 5.4 ypc and 129 rushing yards. In the pass game, CMC has 74 targets and 56 receptions through eight games. The Giants are 30th in rushing defense and 29th in total defense. I think CMC has a big day. 49ers cover on the road.
$10: Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5)
The line was at three touchdowns earlier in the week – I’m glad I waited. Penn State is motivated. The Nittany Lions want to prove the world wrong. The explosive freshmen WR’s are finally going to get more reps. PSU will center their attack around Kaytron Allen. All of this makes sense, but the Nits are outmanned and on the road. Ohio State is #1 in total defense, allowing just 216.9 ypg. On the ground, the Buckeyes have allowed just one TD85.57 ypg. Through the air, just three TD’s (and four INT’s) 131.3 ypg. I simply don’t see a way that Penn State can score enough points. Buckeyes cover at home.
