We’re at the point of the NFL season where we ask ourselves, “Can you believe it’s already Week 11?” If you haven’t asked a friend that lately, you’re clearly not as obsessed as you should be about football and should seek professional help, for one of us, at least.
The top college teams in the nation are all jockeying for playoff positions. This weekend holds yet another opportunity for teams to stay put or be eliminated.
Similarly, the NFL has some tasty matchups (Bucs-Bills, Panthers-Falcons, Bears-Vikes, Seahawks-Rams, Chiefs-Broncos and Eagles-Lions) which should keep us all glued to our television sets.
Regarding our competition, we have a new number one in our midst as our pesky celebrity guests keep getting in the way of Kevin’s and my good time. I take that back. Kevin is having a miserable time. He’s unkempt, has taken up smoking cigarettes down to the filter, hasn’t left his basement in weeks and is trying to figure out where this season went wrong. (Answer: Week Two.) Our beloved Mr. Paul is one week away from turning full Costanza and going against every hunch he has. Stay tuned as that should be fun.
I’m treading water but if I stay comfortably ahead of Kevin in this contest, life is worth living and trash is worth talking. Since our guests have been on a heater, you may want to pay close attention to Heavy D’s picks this week. He’s looking to bounce back from consecutive 1-4 seasons.
Here are our standings to date, and our picks…
Celebrity Guests 28-21-1, +$230
SportsChump 27-22-1, +$90
The Wife Hates Sports 22-27-1, -$140
$50 on Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
As the Buccaneers do everything in their power to give away their lead in the NFC North, just underneath their tenuous perch is a bubbling toil of mediocrity between two teams that can’t figure out if they’re any good. Take the Panthers for example. One week, they go into Green Bay and win handily. The next week, they follow up with a loss in New Orleans. As my old friend G Mony used to say, can’t stand prosperity. Same thing with the Falcons. They beat the Buffalo Bills then proceed to lose four straight games. Sunday presents the ideal get right spot for the Falcons if they want any shot at making the post-season. Drake London has been playing like a wide receiver possessed, fortunately not Antonio Brown style possessed, which is a whole other exorcist requiring level of possession. Did you hear they just found this guy in Dubai? But I digress. Let’s just say I’m a lot more comfortable with my Drake London Most Receiving Touchdowns on the season prop than I was a month ago. If the Falcons can get any sort of consistency out of Bijan Robinson, this is a perfectly winnable game. While neither of these teams are very good on paper (which is not where they play games), the Falcons have the higher upside. I’ll take the Falcons and lay the three as they continue to muddle up the division and remind Carolina who is its second-best team, and who is its third.
$40 on Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (+12 ½)
I haven’t watched a lot of Notre Dame football this season, which is odd considering I work in an Irish Pub. Hey, I’m busy over here. I’ve watched even less Pittsburgh Panthers football. What I do know is that Notre Dame has been on a heater after dropping their first two games of the season. Those early stumbles gave them little room for error. They’ve since rattled off seven straight wins rather convincingly, albeit against weaker opponents. Their lone struggle during that streak came against ranked USC, whom they only beat by ten, but in that rivalry, you can throw everything out the window. This week, they travel to Pittsburgh to play in what I can only imagine will be brisk at best weather. They’ll have to air it out a bit as the Panthers have one of the stingiest ground games in the nation, ranked third overall in rushing yards per game allowed. The Irish should be able to sneak out of Pittsburgh with a win but I’m not sure they’ll get whatever they want against the Panthers, who have playoff aspirations of their own. While the Domers will do their best to win convincingly to stay high in the power polls, the W is what’s most important. I just don’t know that they get it by 12 ½ points, so I’ll take the Panthers plus.
$30 on South Carolina Gamecocks at Texas A&M Aggies (-17 ½)
Stick a fork in South Carolina. They are done. But SportsChump, you’ll retort, they just played four ranked SEC teams (LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ole Miss) respectfully, only losing by a combined 52 points. I’ll give them that. They held their own in those ball games. I’m not sure any team in the nation has had a more difficult stretch over the past month. I have news for the Gamecocks. It doesn’t get any easier. They’re about to play the SEC’s best when they travel to College Station this weekend. Texas A&M is playing on another level entirely, my friends. A&M has the third highest scoring offense in the SEC and has its fourth stingiest defense. On the contrary, only three SEC teams have scored fewer points than South Carolina and only four have allowed more. This has all the makings of a blowout. Texas A&M knows what’s at stake. South Carolina wants to move on from this season and pretend it never happened. This line opened at 17 ½ and immediately jumped two points so I’ll take the Aggies minus the 17 ½ as they inch one step closer towards a conference championship.
$20 on Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Cowboys just suffered a devastating loss and no, I’m not talking about their last game against the Arizona Cardinals. Inexplicably, their top draft pick defensive end Marshawn Kneeland was found dead at only 24 years old. He was one of the few bright spots of a struggling Dallas defense. The Cowboys had their bye last week which means they’ve had an extra week to contemplate life and think about what they just lost. This week, they travel to the Raiders whose only win after a Week One surprise against the Patriots has come against the lowly Titans. In fact, they’ve been blown out by good teams, only able to muster a combined 13 points against Indy, Kansas City and Denver. To be clear, Dallas does not have the defense of those three teams. In fact, theirs remains amongst the league’s worst, however, this is a game, they stand to get fired up for. The Raiders are average defensively but have proven vulnerable to teams with good offenses. The Cowboys have that and then some, still ranking top four in the league in total yards, passing yards and points per game. Overall, this will be an emotional game for Dallas. Despite their defensive woes, the veterans in that locker room will have them ready to win one for Kneeland. Dallas minus the three.
$10 on Florida Gators at Ole Miss Rebels (-14 ½)
That’s it. I’m doing it. I’ve discussed Lane Kiffin so much on this website over the past month, his wife is starting to get jealous. This is the weekend the coveted one, Coach Kiffin, hosts the Florida Gators. As you may recall, after upsetting LSU last season, the Gators also toppled Ole Miss the following week. I’m pretty sure Kiffin has been stewing about that loss for 364 days. The rumors about Kiffin leaving Ole Miss have subsided but they’ll kick up again this week as he’s playing against one of the schools that’s courting, dare I say, stalking him. As they say in Oxford, it won’t matter one pea-pickin’ bit. Last season’s loss is a mile away and about to have its demons exorcised. Billy Napier is dropping off his resume at different schools around the conference and DJ Lagway’s picture can currently be found on the side of a milk carton. It’s highly possible his future with the Gators is coming to an end. This line is lofty, but life is for the daring. I have a feeling, as I hinted earlier, that Lane Kiffin will inspire his team to prove that Ole Miss is no secondary program to the University of Florida. As the Rebels bounce the Gators and their fans deeper into depression, he’ll be carried off the field on the shoulders of his players who know deep down in their hearts that he isn’t going anywhere. Kiffin covers the 14 ½.
Celebrity Guest: Heavy D (Career 9-11, +$40)
All college…
Bama -5.5 (5)
Alabama hasn’t lost since the country laughed and pointed in week one. Ty Simpson has improved week to week, and the defense has started to come around. It will probably be competitive for three quarters, but I expect Alabama to pull away. Roll Tide.
Pitt +12.5 (4)
Pitt is 7-2 ATS as well as 7-2. This just seems like a lot of points for a good team at home. Notre Dame is 4-5 ATS. Might be rain as well towards the second half of the game. I like the scoring down in this one. Give me Pitt.
Northwestern +11.5 (3)
Bryce Underwood has thrown 5 TD passes all year. Their top RB Justice Haynes is likely out as well. Michigan struggles to score already, and it likely won’t improve this week. More big points for the home dog.
USC -6.5 (2)
USC scores a lot at home. I can’t see Iowa flying across the country and being competitive. Their offense has improved, but they do not have the athletes to compete. This should probably be higher on my list. USC covers. Fight On!
Tennessee Tech +22.5 (1)
Going out on a limb here. Tech is 10-0 and Kentucky is coming off a big win against Florida. I sense a let down and Tech covering. Obviously Kentucky should win, but they may be going through the motions.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5) at Michigan State Spartans
Let’s give my alma mater a second shot in the $50 slot. Penn State played its best game of the season last week against the Hoosiers. A few bounces, breaks, and incredible catches prevented the upset. Now, it’s whether this was the game that finally broke Penn State’s spirit. With the talent on Penn State’s roster, the Nittany Lions should win out and ideally reach a bowl game. Michigan State is a program in turmoil, vacating wins and floundering its way through the season. No one expected these teams to be fighting for a first conference win in November, yet here we are. If Sparty were smart, they’d give Aidan Chiles the start, as he’s a mobile QB, and that’s burned Penn State all year. Still, Penn State has more talent and Terry Smith has done a solid job as interim head coach. Nittany Lions cover on the road.
$40: San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Brock Purdy is back for the Niners. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out for the Cards. So is RT Jonah Williams. Advantage: San Francisco. So, can we say double team on Trey McBride? Who else can Jacoby Brissett trust to make plays? Michael Wilson. Dortch? Sorry, Greg, but that name sounds like a soup made out of beets. Interestingly, from a statistical angle, both teams are allowing 339.4 yards per game on defense. That’s your random stat of the day. I’m not going to deep-dive too much into this game. The Niners are getting key guys back, while the Cardinals are losing more. It’s that simple. 49ers cover on the road.
$30: Houston Texans (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
This game went from out of the top five to the infamous $30 slot, where I’m 2-8 this season. The Titans – the NFL’s only one-win team – are coming off a bye week and hopefully (for their sake) have found some answers to its stagnant offense. This division tends to feature a lot of tight games, but the Texans have won five of six in this rivalry. C.J. Stroud is out for Houston, but Davis Mills (312 total yards and 3 TD last week) has filled in admirably for him. My focus and reasoning is more on the defensive side, where the Texans lead the league in total defense (261.3 ypg allowed). On the flip side, Tennessee has the league’s most anemic offense (244.0 ypg – last in NFL). Texans cover on the road.
$20: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers (-6.5)
Both these teams have burned me with picks this year. SEC games tend to get me quite frequently, yet I keep coming back for more. The Eli Drinkwitz noise to Penn State is likely buried in the social media rumors and not impacting the Tigers. Mississippi State is battle tested, going 0-4 against ranked teams and losing by an average of 14 points. Freshman QB Matt Zollers (replacing the injured Beau Pribula) has struggled against strong competition – Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, to be exact. Perhaps a home crowd facing a lesser opponent is just what the doctor ordered. Although, the Bulldogs (59th against the pass) are no slouch. Still, neither is Missouri’s top ten pass defense. Tigers cover at home.
$10: Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants
Green Bay’s offense has fallen completely flat over the last two weeks. So why roll with them this week? A few reasons, really. First, there’s the health of the Giants. Dart is out and Jameis Winston is in. Winston is good for a few great lines, a few crab legs, and most importantly, a few turnovers. That benefits the Packers. New York is also down a few receivers, so the offensive depth is lacking. Next, we have New York’s defense, which ranks 29th in the NFL and 31st against the run. Expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. After a few sluggish weeks from the Pack, we see a spark this week. Packers cover on the road.
