Before getting to this week’s edition of fruitlessly picking games against the spread, I thought I’d kick things off with a little history lesson.
According to the internet, the origins of the phrase “back to the drawing board” can be traced back to cartoonist Peter Arno. You’re likely familiar with Arno’s work if you’ve ever sifted through New Yorker magazine.
Anyway, in one of his early works, World War II military personnel are depicted racing towards an airplane that had crashed on its own accord. Looking at the fallen plane and realizing they needed to start redesigning aircraft from scratch, they say to each other “back to the drawing board.”
I can think of no more appropriate way to describe this football season, or at least those of us daring enough to wager on it. Just when you think you have things all figured out, the weekend’s slate comes crashing down.
There were two wagers I really liked last week that I failed to include in last week’s picks, the Bucs/Bills game over and the Titans to score under their projected number 14 ½ points. Both hit.
So, this week, it’s back to the drawing board and back to my hunches. It’s time to pick myself up by my bootstraps and get this fighter plane back on track. I’ll have my parachute rip cord ready just in case.
This week, Darrel Harden returns. Note: Mr. Harden has finished over .500 in three of the first four years of this contest so pay close attention.
But before his picks, let me have…
$50 on Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
My season-long quest to find a chink in the Colts’ armor has met with futility. They’re currently in the three-hole in the AFC playoff race (behind Denver and New England) and wouldn’t mind at all grabbing that top spot. It’s not entirely unattainable, however, they still have a few bumps in the road. Bump number one comes this weekend in Kansas City. The 2025 Chiefs haven’t been very Chief-like and currently, at 5-5, sit outside of the playoffs looking in. But let’s look at bigger picture stuff. Can you, even with what we’ve seen from them, imagine a world where Patrick Mahomes misses the playoffs? Me neither. I know they’ve had a slew of interchangeable parts on offense, but this is a must get right spot for KC as their remaining schedule has a few hiccups as well. Not all that long ago, if I were to give you the Chiefs minus three against anyone in Arrowhead, you’d jump at the opportunity so why not now? After dropping their first two games at home this season, the Chiefs haven’t lost at home since, including wins over Detroit and Baltimore. This is the perfect time for the Chiefs to remind Indianapolis of the proper pecking order in the AFC. That comes this Sunday with a win by three or more. Chiefs cover.
$40 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (Over 49 ½)
As I mentioned earlier, there was a wager I liked last Sunday that I did not pull the trigger on. That was the Buccaneers/Bills over. The number was higher than average for football games, low 50s, but that game flew over, almost reaching the number by halftime. The Bucs have one more stop off on the difficult part of their schedule, having to travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams, one of the hottest teams in football. Both these teams can put up points. Rams are 6th in scoring, the Bucs 11th. Stafford is an MVP candidate, his wide receiver Puca Nacua is one of the more dangerous point getters in the game. Those two will be track-meeting against a far-too sketchy secondary. On the other side of the ball, despite their injuries, the Bucs can still put up points with anyone. They do that again this weekend with Baker Mayfield’s semi-homecoming to Los Angeles. I’m going over 49 ½.
$30 on New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10)
Have you ever had the yips? I’ll get them occasionally with my short game on the golf course. I’ll crouch down for my chip, focus on the ball, swing, and then SHANK! Off goes that dimpled little ball about 45 degrees to the right of where I’d intended. Jared Goff resembled my short game last week while trying to complete a pass against the Eagles. I think I heard somewhere that he went 2-19 in the second half. That is what you’d call a less-than-ideal completion percentage. Jared Goff had the yips. Playing a Philadelphia team that’s gearing up for the playoffs will do that to you. That won’t happen again this week. The Detroit Lions are pissed and play the perfect opponent to right one’s yips against, the New York Giants. As of this point, it’s unclear whether Jaxson Dart will return under center, but one thing is for certain. Detroit’s defense will look to do to Dart what Philly did to Goff. It won’t take long for Goff to get his confidence back against a team with worst record in the NFC. Expect Dan Campbell to diagram a game plan to get back to the basics. This one has blowout written all over it so ten points isn’t all that much to lay. Detroit minus.
$20 on Baltimore Ravens (Over 28 ½ points scored)
The Ravens return home after a month-long hiatus. That’s right, Baltimore hasn’t played a home game since October 26th. The joys of NFL scheduling. All the Ravens did during this stretch was put themselves back in the playoff conversation. After losing four straight games, they have quietly won four, which tracks for a team as dysfunctional and erratic as the Baltimore Ravens. Although they do have a few tests down the stretch, this remains one of the easier games left on Baltimore’s schedule, indicated by the two-touchdown spread. Baltimore should win this one handily but I’m not messing with point spread. I’m going over Baltimore’s total points scored which shows 28 ½. Over their last three games, all on the road against decent defenses (Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland), the Ravens averaged 26 points per. Their last home game that I mentioned happened a month ago against the Cleveland Bears. They put up 30. I see no reason why the Ravens shouldn’t be able to put up over 28 ½ against the Jets, maybe even throwing in a defensive touchdown to boot, which you can find at your local sportsbook at +450. Ravens total points over 28 ½.
$10 on Arizona Cardinals (Over 23 points scored) Okay, I found another one. Since we’re being sneaky this weekend, and going back to the drawing board, I tried extra hard to find lines that didn’t make sense. The Arizona Cardinals, for example. Yes, I get it, SportsChump. The Arizona Cardinals NEVER make sense. And you’d be correct. Their quarterback, and coincidentally, most prolific Gator quarterback ever to throw in the NFL, Jacoby Brissett set a league record last week by completing 47 passes. This week, they host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their over/under in total points scored is 23. The Cardinals have scored 29 or more their last three games, two of those coming on the road. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who can occasionally play some defense, don’t do so on the road. In their four road games this season, they’ve let up 31, 21, 29 and 36. Mr. Brissett is clearly auditioning for a gig and one last career payout either with Arizona or another team that would show interest. Either way, 23 isn’t that high a number for the Cardinals who still have some weapons and can still put some points on the board. Arizona Cardinals score over 23
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: New England Patriots (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals
This line is puzzling and probably a bit risky to place in this slot, as there are multiple moving parts when it comes to each team’s lineups. Ja’Marr Chase is definitely out due to being a big fat liar. Translation: he spit on a player, it’s on video, and he’s suspended for a game. Joe Burrow is nearing a return, but Zac Taylor won’t name his starter. Cryptic guy. Still, Flacco has played well, but no Chase? C’mon. For New England, it looks like both Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson are set to be back. Hello, offensive depth! Statistically (and this is what is pushing me forward), the Bengals are a -7 in turnover differential (4th worst in NFL) and dead last in total defense, allowing 418.2 ypg. Patriots cover on the road.
$40: New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10)
Here’s a warning to all kneecaps, as the Lions were 0-for-5 on fourth down last week. I can see the steam coming out of Dan Campbell’s ears from where I’m sitting. This is an aggressive line, especially after watching Jameis Winston keep the Giants in the game against the Packers. Still, Green Bay’s offense has been floundering and also lost Josh Jacobs in that game. Enter a hungry Lions team with its “Sonic and Knuckles” RB duo featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. They should feast against New York’s run defense that ranks 31st in the NFL (ahead of only the aforementioned Bengals). Lions cover at home.
$30: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions (-7.5)
Three weeks ago, Nebraska lost its star QB Dylan Raiola for the season. Since? A seven-point win against UCLA and a bye week. Still effective at 7-3, even after freshman T.J. Lateef stepped in. Lateef was outstanding facing UCLA (13-15, 236 total yards, 3 TD). Lateef averages 5.1 ypc and opposing QB’s have torched Penn State on the ground this season. The Rhule extension at Nebraska eliminated the coaching rumors in Happy Valley. That will still be a storyline. On the flip side, Penn State has been (and will continue to be) aggressive blitzing, especially facing a freshman in Lateef. With new life, bowl aspirations, and a primetime White Out on Senior Day, this just feels like the momentum is heavily on the side of PSU. Nittany Lions cover at home.
$20: Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
I tried to iron out what’s missing here and my assumption is the cross country travel for the Jaguars. Jacksonville is playing better every week and that was evident in last week’s dominating win over the Chargers. This week’s opponent – the Cardinals – continue to be depleted on offense and will be without Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emari Demercado. Trey Benson is nearing a return, but remains out. Meanwhile, the Jags have a +8 turnover ratio and have just ten giveaways in ten games this season. Travel or not, Jacksonville knocked off the Niners on the road earlier this season, and they’ll do it again this week in Arizona. Jaguars cover on the road.
$10: Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies (+18.5)
The James Franklin news has been flooding my timeline all week. For months, I knew this was the best spot for Franklin. He recruits well in the area and needs a weaker conference to play in. He’ll be close enough to continuously challenge Penn State for recruits. Virginia Tech fans are talking trash on getting him. They’ll see once “Big Game James” arrives. Franklin did a lot for Penn State, but it was time for a change. As for the game, Miami is clearly the more talented team. I’m banking on a jazzed up environment that is beyond excited for their future. The atmosphere will be electric and the players should be fired up. Miami wins, but give me the Hokies and the points at home.
Guest Picks: Darrell Harden (Career 12-8 $100)
Hi everyone! I’m back once again for a round of picks at the gracious invitation of Kevin and Chris. It’s always fun to write for these guys, and I love the annual reminder of why I don’t wager on sports – with the noteworthy exception of my 5-for-5 run a couple years ago, I generally break even, at best, on my picks. I have three hungry feline mouths to feed, so I’ve got to save that money for absurdly expensive prescription cat food.
I’m sticking with college football this year; I’ve watched way more of that than I have the pro game, and I want to give myself a fighting chance here. I like to have a bit of a theme, though, so, with one exception, I want to look at the slate of should-be-PAC-12 games on the slate this weekend.
50 “Dollars” – #25 Arizona State -7 at Colorado
As the saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you have none. Colorado has been working with at least three this year. Throw some coaching changes into the mix, and it’s been a mess in Boulder. The Buffaloes are coming off a bye week, but their results going in were pretty ugly. Arizona State has won three of their last four games. It sounds like Sam Leavitt has been cleared to play; I’m thinking he does and that Arizona State covers in this Big XII matchup.
40 “Dollars” – #16 Georgia Tech -2.5 v Pittsburgh
Both of these teams have had solid seasons. Georgia Tech has been a particular highlight this year, with Haynes King largely willing his team to some of their results. Pittsburgh will be no pushover, and Georgia Tech’s defense has been suspect of late, but I think Georgia Tech will, once again, be carried to a home ACC win by their talisman quarterback.
30 “Dollars” – UCLA +10.5 v Washington
What a ride it’s been for the Bruins this year; they fired coach DeShaun Foster after a miserable start, and then, under interim coach Tim Skipper, they showed some life, even starting the end of James Franklin’s tenure at Penn State. Washington is having a strong season, but I think UCLA will find a way to keep this Big Ten game closer than the line predicts.
20 “Dollars” – #7 Oregon -10 v #15 USC
Ah, yes – it’s another edition of this classic Big Ten rivalry. Both teams are having an excellent season, with Oregon eyeing a playoff spot and USC hoping to make their way into the field. USC is on the road here – they’ve dropped a pair of road games against good teams this year, so they will want to be on alert for this game. I don’t think alert will be enough, though – Oregon has, for the most part, looked the part of a playoff team this year. They’ve won pretty and they’ve won ugly. They did drop that game to Indiana, but so has everyone else Indiana played this year. Oregon wins and covers.
10 “Dollars” – Stanford +3 v California
The state of California may not be on the Atlantic Coast, but this is nonetheless an ACC game. Everything about this game is screaming at me to pick Cal; they’ve had a solid season, and Stanford have struggled a bit (okay, a lot). This is a rivalry game, though, and very much an opportunity for Stanford to get a highlight for their season, and I think they will find a way to pull it off. Stanford covers (and I think they win outright).
That’s all from me for this year. Don’t blame me if you lose a lot of “dollars” by wagering based on my picks … but don’t forget to send me a cut of the winnings if you win big.
