I went to the racetrack with some friends last week for opening day. 100th season for the Tampa Bay Downs. It was quite the spectacle, hundreds of us dolled up, celebrating horsey season, cashing winners or crumpling tickets, all of us at least at some point during the day imagining what the track must have looked like 100 years ago.
In one of the races, a horse pulled up lame. It stumbled coming out of the track. That’s always sad to see.
In this cyberspatial racetrack of picking football games against the spread this season, two other horses have pulled up lame. It may be time to take us out to pasture.
My counterpart Kevin likes to draw movie references in his weekly predictions. One of his favorites is Dumb & Dumber, and why wouldn’t it be? The most brilliant part about Dumb & Dumber, and there are lots of them, is that the viewer, while laughing throughout, struggles to determine which of the characters is Dumb and which is Dumber. Harry and Lloyd are, throughout the film, interchangeable.
As are we, I’m afraid. Another horrific week has my counterpart and I wearing pastel tuxedos at the endangered owl gathering, putting out the vibe with a bunch of crumpled football predictions tucked neatly into our Swanson, er… Samsonite. We were way off.
Celebrity Guests: 32-27-1, $150
The Wife Hates Sports: 28-30-2, $-90
SportsChump: 29-29-2, $-100
Fortunately, this week, we’ll be able to sleep through most of it after a healthy dose of tryptophan.
This week, for the holidays, we bring in our number one turkey, Rising Storms, who is still basking in the glow of what his Eagles did to Detroit not long ago. He has been one of our top celebrity prognosticators over the past five years so please pay close attention to his logic, and not ours.
But before his picks, let me have…
$50 on Los Angeles Chargers (Over 26 points scored)
The Chargers just celebrated a well-needed bye. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been running for his life with his offensive line injured and barely able to protect him. Fortunately, this week brings essentially another bye. Divisional rival Las Vegas travels to SoCal and have both Pete Carroll and Geno Smith wondering what the hell they’re still doing around football. The Chargers are in the middle of a playoff race and will do whatever it takes to stay relevant in a discombobulated AFC that has ten teams vying for seven spots. The spread is lofty, as it should be, but I’m not laying points, even though the Chargers should cover. L.A. stumbled into its bye with an ugly 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. They’ve been stewing about their lack of offensive output for two weeks. Prior to that, they put up 25, 27 and 37. This week, their over/under is 26 and they’re going against a team that’s allowing 25 a game. I look for the Chargers to get their offense back on track against a divisional rival they hate and that has little to play for. Chargers over 26 total points scored.
$40 on Kansas City Chiefs/Dallas Cowboys (Over 52)
Speaking of scoring, the NFL has gone out of its way to officiate games so that scoring is up. Chicks dig the long ball, right? We want highlights, not shutouts. Touchdown celebrations, not futility. The league especially wants this for games that people are watching. That’s why your Thanksgiving will be filled with touchdowns to go with your turkey and matriculation to go with your mashed potatoes. Game two on Thursday’s slate features the Dallas Cowboys, who score at will, against the league’s most exciting quarterback, who can also, score at will. Forget what you’ve heard, rumors of Pat Mahomes’ demise are premature. In a game they had no business winning, the Chiefs snuck up and bit the Colts on the ass to steal an overtime victory. And while Dallas’ defense has picked it up as of late, they haven’t played Mahomes. I look for this to be a track meet while most of us are sleeping off seconds. The NFL wants this to be a showcase. The over/under opened at 52 and you can still find a few of those out there. If you feel like wagering this game live, you can wait to see how the defenses start out to see if you can get a better number, but you run the risk of early scoring and never finding that number again. Plus having your nose buried in your gambling app is a good way to avoid having to talk to family. I’m going to play the number outright. The league wants this over and whatever the NFL wants, the NFL gets. Chiefs/Cowboys over 52.
$30 on Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Over 51 ½)
In keeping with my scoring for Thanksgiving theme, the late game features two of the league’s other dynamic quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson versus the return of Joe Burrow. I’m not sure why the 3-8 Bengals, who have all but been eliminated from the playoffs, are trotting out their franchise quarterback after missing months with turf toe surgery but they bought him so they might as well use him. We haven’t seen him since Week Two. One would think that after months of no action, Burrow would be a bit rusty but if there’s anyone who can miss time and return to football without skipping a beat, it’s Joe Cool. Like the Chiefs/Cowboys line above, Vegas likes scoring and if we’ve learned anything about the Ravens and the Bengals this season, they can’t stop opponents from getting into the end zone. Like the game above, I look for this to perhaps start slowly and then pick up steam late. The line is 51 ½ and I’m going over again. The NFL doesn’t want duds on a day that everyone is watching. The Ravens want this division title. The Bengals, out of spite alone, don’t want them to have it. They’ll do everything in their power to stop that from happening and put up a lot of points in the process. Bengals/Ravens over 51 ½.
$20 on Las Vegas Raiders (Under 14 ½ points scored)
Let’s go back to that Raiders/Chargers game for a moment. The more I think about it, the more I like the Chargers… to absolutely keep the Raiders from doing anything at all. By every conceivable statistic, the Raiders are among the worst offensive teams in the league. Points per game, yards per game. The Raiders just aren’t getting things done. They put up 10 against the Browns, 16 against the Cowboys, 7 against the Broncos, got shut out by the Chiefs and scored only 6 against the Colts. While the Chargers are not as good defensively as they were last year, they’re still top five in yards allowed per game. Geno Smith looks like Jameis Winston before he got Lasix. With the Chargers’ offensive line still struggling to protect their prized possession, I look for the defense to make sure this one isn’t close. Over/under total points scored for the Raiders is 14 ½. I’m going under.
$10 on Philadelphia Eagles (Over 26.5 points scored)
There has been a lot of talk this season about what’s wrong with the Philadelphia Eagles. This is your friendly reminder that they are 8-3 and still one of the favorites to win the NFC. AJ Brown is unhappy, Saquon Barkley isn’t the same and Jalen Hurts is Jalen Hurts. Their offense is slow and plodding. But the Eagles see the bigger picture. Get to the post-season and turn on the jets. Not the New York Jets. That would be bad. While Bears fans are giddy with their success this season, also 8-3, there are some tell tale signs that this team might not yet be ready for prime time. Let’s take their defense for example. The Bears are still allowing 26 points per game, a number that doesn’t necessarily have contender status written all over it. This might be a buy low spot for the Eagles offense. Their over/under is 26.5 for the game. On Black Friday, this must just be the week the Eagles remind everyone who is the team to beat in the NFC.
Celebrity Guest: Rising Storms (13-7, $140)
Ahh, Thanksgiving. One of my favorite days of the year, if for no other reason that I have carte blanche to eat myself stupid, then fade in and out of consciousness while Detroit plays on the television. Truly, the most American of holidays, no? This year, with my better half spending time with her family in Atlanta, I get to brave the Tryptophan coma all by my lonesome. I mean, with the first winter storm of the season heading towards the Mitten, it’s not like I have anything better to do. But enough about me, let’s pick some games!
When the Chump reached out to let me know it was my turn to pick, he pointed out that the past few years have been pretty kind to me, and I now have a rep to defend. Of course, this means I’m probably going to tank this year, so here are the games that are going to cost me my next car payment:
New England vs the G-Men +7.5
While I’m sure we all figured the Pats would put it together eventually, I’m not sure anyone south of Providence saw this season coming. The Giants looked for a minute like they might have the weapons to pull out of their multi-season tailspin, but the Gods of Football are fickle. A depleted Giants squad puts up a fight early, until Jameis reverts back to his old self with a pick 6 at the most inopportune time. Pats win, but 7.5 is a little much for this scrappy but overmatched Giants team.
Auburn +6.5 vs Bama
One of these days, Auburn will wake back up. Perhaps it will be soon, as we search for our 3rd coach since the Gus Bus got repo’d. Despite the offensive woes we’ve seen this year, Auburn might have the best defense they’ve had since the early 2010’s. Bama wins, but Auburn covers at home.
Bears vs Eagles -7
I’m not even going to lie, I have no idea what to make of this year’s iteration of the Birds. Our OC is, as the kids say, absolute cheeks. The talent that Howie has amassed, however, should be enough to overcome that, shouldn’t it? After collapsing in epic fashion to the hated Cowboys last week, you’d think pride alone would drive the Eagles to play better this week. I’m buying it and praying that it’s not fool’s gold. Jalen and co. take out their frustrations on the Bears, the Birds win and cover.
Ravens -7 vs Bengals
6 months ago, I’d have thought that this game would have major playoff implications. What a difference 6 months makes. Even with Mighty Joe Burrow back from the dreaded Turf Toe, the Ravens are starting to slip back into form. Lamar and the boys are just too much for the Bengals. This one could get ugly. Raven roll.
Seattle -10.5 vs the Vikings
There was a part of me that wanted to think the Vikings could put up a fight in this one. Then I realized it’s in Seattle, and JJ McCarthy might be out with a concussion. This one could get real ugly as Sam Darnold decides to make a statement to his former team. Seabirds and the 12th man win big.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Penn State Nittany Lions (-13.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The winner is bowl eligible. Penn State is hot and interim HC Terry Smith is gaining supporters. I don’t think Smith lands the job – and he shouldn’t. There’s not enough on his resume. Better options exist, despite all the coaches that have received extensions as a result of PSU’s search. Pat Kraft is owed a half dozen Edible Arrangements by now. As for the game, the Nits are playing like they should have all season. Kaytron Allen set the school’s all-time rushing record last week and Nick Singleton is a TD away from setting the all-time TD record. Meanwhile, Rutgers ranks 129th in the nation against the run. Expect PSU to exploit that, opening up the pass game for Ethan Grunkmeyer. Penn State covers on the road.
$40: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at New York Jets
Check your Bingo card and see if you had a Tyrod Taylor vs Kirk Cousins starting QB matchup at any point this season. Yet, here we are. The Falcons have been a very hard bunch to understand. Bijan Robinson is a monster, averaging 5.0 ypc this season (but only three 100-yard rushing games). He also has 61 targets and 49 receptions. He will be the key, facing New York’s defense ranking in the bottom ten against the run. More so, it’s the turnover differential that was the most eye opening for me. Atlanta – despite its 4-7 record – is a +5 in turnover differential, while the Jets are dead last (-13). Falcons cover on the road.
$30: Oregon Ducks (-6.5) at Washington Huskies
This should be a fun one and I’m going to start by throwing some team stats out there. Both teams rank in the top 20 in total defense (Oregon is 3rd, Washington 18th). Passing offenses rank similar. Oregon ranks 8th in rushing offense and will face Washington’s 18th ranked rushing defense. Oregon’s pass defense has more INT’s (11) than passing TD’s allowed (10) and rank 3rd in the nation in yards allowed (145.7 ypg). That’s a unit that often gets overlooked considering Oregon’s 29 rushing TD’s and explosive receivers on offense. Overall, the Ducks have more to play for and I think it’ll be a trading of touchdowns throughout. Ducks cover on the road.
$20: UCLA Bruins (+23.5) at USC Trojans
What a disjointed season for the Bruins. Three straight wins sandwiched between blocks of ugly losses. UCLA has given up 96 points over the last two weeks (Ohio State and Washington). So why go with them? Good question. I debated on Alabama here, to be honest. This is a big rivalry. The Bruins live and die with Nico Iamaleava, especially on the ground. The mobile QB has 490 rushing yards this season. In its three wins and three close losses, Iamaleava has averaged 61 yards on the ground. In 12 of the last 13 matchups in this rivalry, only one has been decided by more than 24 points. I’m banking on the Bruins to fight hard and keep this game close, or at least… close-ish. Give me UCLA and the points on the road.
$10: Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (+10.5)
Is “The Game” too risky? Maybe, but we know how Ryan Day has fared against the Wolverines. Michigan has won four straight in this rivalry. Sure, three of those Michigan teams were highly ranked. Ohio State has been a top team in all four scenarios. Last year’s Michigan team? Unranked. We know the heated rivalry. Fight and hustle won’t be a question. It’ll be how Michigan’s offense handles Ohio State’s explosive defense – especially its passing offense. The run game ranks 10th in CFB (223.45 ypg). The pass game has just 9 TD through the air and ranks 101st in yards gained. If Michigan can hang in the trenches and keep Ohio State off the field, this game should stay close. Give me Michigan and the points at home.
