The NFL has achieved perfection in its chase for parity.
Quickly, off the top of your head, name one dominant team, one you’re assured will make a solid run through the post-season.
You can’t do it, can you.
The NFL dynasty as we know is a thing of the recent past, at least for now. This parity and unpredictability has sunk all of us deep into the red for the first time in this contest’s history.
Here are our current standings…
Celebrity Guests: 36-33-1 -$10
SportsChump: 33-35-2 – $80
The Wife Hates Sports: 31-35-4 -$160
And our overall standings for the last five years…
I hear a collective “Oof!” from the participants.
I’ll keep this intro short and sweet and I’m gambling on Thursday night’s affair (Go Bucs!). All I can suggest is to be careful wagering and if you meet someone who tells you he’s made a lot of money betting on the NFL this season, he’s probably lying.
$50 on Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
We’re kicking off this week early to wager on my beloved Buccaneers. Their fifth straight NFC South crown was once thought a foregone conclusion. Then the Voodoo Saints brought a monsoon into Tampa Bay and upset the home team on a dreary Sunday afternoon. Seriously, did you watch that game? I thought Tampa, both the town and the team, were going to float off into the Gulf of Whatever It’s Called This Week. It rained from the moment I woke up to the time we put it to bed. The sloppiness showed on the field. The Bucs looked discombobulated and let Tyler Shough look like the more brazen quarterback. That won’t happen again on Thursday night. The Bucs realize what is at stake. With the Panthers traveling to New Orleans, fully aware of the upset-minded Saints, the Bucs must win against Atlanta on Thursday night if they want to keep a healthy distance. Fortunately, the Falcons are an ideal get-right spot. While a divisional rival, Kirk Cousins will not be able to pull off the magic Shough did, as he’s twice his age and considerably less mobile. Look for Coach Bowles to light a fire under his defense and look for Baker to make sure his offense doesn’t look as clunky as it did last Sunday. I like Baker to feed Egbuka (+150 for a touchdown) after he dropped a wide-open pass in the end zone last week. The potential return of Mike Evans, who has allegedly been practicing with the team again, should open things up. Tristan Wirfs is also slated to return, which makes a huge difference when it comes to protecting Baker Mayfield. I’ll be taking every Bucs offensive stat over in this game, including…
$40 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 25 points scored)
The Bucs offense has been woefully sluggish lately. Cardinals and Saints excluded, the Bucs just ran through the meat of their schedule. Mix in games against the Pats, Bills and Rams and you have four losses in five games. The Falcons home game in prime time couldn’t come at a better time. The Bucs offense hasn’t scored over 20 points in its last three games. Chalk that up to Bucky Irving missing time. We’ll see plenty of Irving, setting up the pass against a Falcons team that has allowed 27 points or more in four of its last five games. The Bucs offense will leave no doubt and give their defense some breathing room. Bucs over 25 points scored.
$30 on Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots
The Bills began this season 4-0 and then, they went into New England. That loss was a turning point for both teams. The Pats, with their relatively easy schedule, have not lost since. They’ve won ten straight games! The Bills, after that wake-up call, have gone a very un-Bill-like 5-3. That won’t happen again. The Bills want nothing more than to end the Patriots ten-game win streak. They have undoubtedly had this game earmarked on their calendar since the AFC East was all but taken from them. Kudos to the job Mike Vrabel has done. He’s all but sewn up coach of the year award with this young team. But Sunday serves as a friendly reminder that the Bills are the more experienced and playoff-ready team. Bills minus one on the road. (Side note: If you agree with this assessment, and expect Josh Allen to go off, now is a fine time to find value on the following wagers: Allen MVP +1100, Bills +375 AFC Champions, Bills +850 Super Bowl Champions)
$20 on Detroit Lions (+5 ½) at Los Angeles Rams
Speaking of NFL MVP’s, Matthew Stafford is the current leader in the clubhouse. He’s thrown for 35 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. It was only a few months ago that we wondered whether he’d even play this season. Taking snaps for the other team is the guy they traded away to get Stafford. Jared Goff returns home with his 8-5 Lions desperately fighting for a playoff spot. Many have closed the window on this Goff-led Lions run, which hasn’t amounted to much, at least not in the post-season. Meanwhile, we’ve already crowned both the Rams and their quarterback. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends. Even though the Rams are the one-seed, and they sure would love to have it for that intimidating Los Angeles home field advantage (surely, I jest), the Lions need this game a whole lot more, for they may be out if they don’t win it. They have three more tough games against Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Chicago and desperately need to start racking up wins. Lions will leave it all out on the field and are getting a nice number, so I’ll take the points and the more desperate team. Lions plus the five and a half.
$10 on Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Two weeks ago, after the Steelers got destroyed by the Buffalo Bills in Pittsburgh, Steelers fans were calling for Mike Tomlin’s head. This is nothing new. They’ve been doing that for years. The man that Tomlin is, he straight up agreed with the fans and respected their frustration. That following week, the Steelers punched the Ravens in the mouth and all but assured an AFC North crown for Steel Town. That’s what Mike Tomlin does. At 7-6, however, their work is not done. Fortunately for them, they get a nice winnable home game on a Monday night against a team that doesn’t do well in the cold. Pittsburgh will have watched the Sunday action, which might include a Bengals win over Baltimore, and realize they have some breathing room. A win over Miami, all but knocking the Dolphins out of the post-season, would give them a giant leg up on the division. The Steelers will do what they do, plod the ball down the field with the occasional big play, with their defense stepping up just enough to make Tua feel uncomfortable and win this game. The line has already moved off the three, so I hope you got it early. If not, tease it down as it’s hard to imagine this Dolphins team, which might look a lot different next year, winning one in the cold. Steelers cover the field goal.
Celebrity Guest: Bobby Kady (Career 8-11, -$70)
$50: NE +1.5 vs BUF With the Mighty Chiefs flailing and likely out of the playoff picture, this would be the year for the Bills to make a run. But I feel their kryptonite seems to be matchups against very good to great defenses. Pats coming off a bye with a chance to clinch the division is something I want to be in on to make an already great game even more interesting. Gimme the Pats getting points.
$40: NYG -2.5 vs WAS Simply put, the Giants are a fun brand with young talent that plays hard despite their record. The Commanders seem to have thrown the towel in with an embarrassing performance last week making a struggling JJ McCarthy look deserving of the 10th overall pick. I don’t think losing Jayden and a veteran presence like Zach Ertz helps the cause. Gimme the G-Men.
$30: JAX -13.5 vs NYJ I actually liked Brady Cook’s JR year at Missouri. He kind of fell down draft boards after his SR year, but was battling thru injuries throughout the entire year. That being said, this is a tough spot. Rookie getting first start, throwing to WRs who are still new to the team, and a D that gave up 34 points to Tua in sub 60 degree weather, I will bet against that. It’s a lot of points, but Devin Lloyd and this Jaguars D is flying around right now. Gimme the Jags.
$20: KC -6 vs LAC Logically, I got nothing for you as to why I think you should put money on this Chiefs team. It seems like this spread could be flipped if you have been watching these two teams. But I don’t think Patty goes quietly into the night, and I believe that Chargers win was a bit worrisome. Herbert struggled with that oven mitt over his Frankenstein like hand, and it took 4 picks and a fumble including one on the goal line in OT to sneak out with a dub. Gimme the Chiefs.
$10: LAR -5.5 vs DET The Lions are still a very good team, but boy, these injuries are mounting. Stafford and the Rams are giving me flashes of the old St Louis Rams greatest show on turf. Puca and Davante are nearly unguardable, great run game, and a D line that gets after the QB. Should be a fun one, but I like the Rams here.
The Wife Hates Sports
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13)
Jacksonville HC Liam Coen was quoted last week simply stating that “I don’t know if we’ll ever really get [respect]”. Well, I’m giving it to the Jags this week. Although, I must admit that my initial reaction was more questioning the last time Jacksonville was favored by nearly two TD’s in a game. Jacksonville – winners of four straight – has the NFL’s top run defense, allowing just 82.9 ypg on the ground. That puts a lot of pressure on New York’s third-string QB Brady Cook, who gets the start following Tyrod Taylor’s groin injury. Defensively, the Jets have just TWO takeaways on the season. That’s no typo. Not surprisingly, the Jets are an NFL worst -15 in turnover differential. This could get ugly fast. Jaguars cover at home.
$40: Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)
Expectations are high in Philly. The fan base is typically grouchy. That fact is well documented. Just ask both Santa Claus and J.D. Drew. Therefore, it’s no surprise that there’s a lot of unrest considering how the Eagles have played as of late. But if you look back to the beginning of November, the Eagles have had to face the Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bears, and Chargers. Perhaps a home game against the hapless Raiders will be just what the doctor ordered. If not, Philly, don’t throw any batteries at said doctor. Kenny Pickett steps in to start for the Raiders. He takes over a Vegas offense that ranks 31st in the NFL (only the Titans have fewer yards per game). Expect Philly’s weapons to take over. Eagles cover at home.
$30: Los Angeles Chargers (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs
It’s desperation time for Kansas City. The division title is no longer an option. A playoff berth is becoming more unlikely by the day. It’s uncharted territory for K.C. under Andy Reid. As a result, expect the Chiefs to play every game like it’s do or die. Because it is. So, why not take the Chiefs? First off, the Chargers rank third in total defense (275.3 ypg allowed). This is a talented group that is really hard to pass on. Next, let’s look at the rivalry’s history. L.A. took the first game this year, breaking a six-game win streak by the Chiefs. Overall, dating back to 2021, eight of the last nine games in this rivalry have been decided by a touchdown or less. Recent history says it’ll be close. Give me the Chargers and the points on the road.
$20: LA Bowl: Boise State Broncos (+10.5) vs Washington Huskies
Bowl games often come down to injuries, transfers, and opt-outs. The biggest opt-out is on the Boise State side, where the Broncos will be without its starting LT. That takes me to Washington’s pass rush first, where the Huskies have just 21 sacks (T-94th in CFB). Boise State QB Maddux Madsen returned from injury last week and played well against UNLV (289 passing yards, 3 TD). Washington is more battle tested, facing a Big Ten schedule. However, the Broncos – while not nearly as good as last year’s playoff team – are a formidable opponent. For example, Boise State’s pass defense ranks 12th in CFB (171.5 ypg) and has more INT’s (14) than TD’s allowed (13). Give me Boise State and the points at the LA Bowl.
$10: Detroit Lions (+6) at Los Angeles Rams
This is the game of the week. At least, on paper it is. The Lions and Rams are both top five offenses in yards per game (Detroit is 3rd, L.A. is 4th). Both teams rank high in turnover differential (Rams +10, Lions +8). Both teams have also had monstrous performances and big-time duds this season. The Lions arguably need this game more, considering the current landscape of the playoff picture. Although, the Rams have the NFC’s top seed (and a bye) within reach. Expect a shootout and the game to come down to which superstar makes more plays. That plus how the Lions perform on fourth down. Give me the Lions and the points on the road.
