Week 17 College/NFL Picks: Dave Bradley Stands up

Two weeks left in the regular season.

If you’re lucky, you’re plotting the demise of a good friend in your fantasy Super Bowl.  I happen to be in such a position.

Our fantasy teams aren’t the only ones striving for paydirt.  Real teams vie in real time for playoff position, as we get down to the nitty grit.  By all accounts, this has been a difficult year for picking games with any accuracy. 

Our guests have gone a combined 7-13 the last four weeks; I haven’t fared much better.  A 4-1 week for Kevin has given him a semi-comfortable lead as the season winds down.  In other words, don’t wager too much on our picks.

The Wife Hates Sports: 38-38-4 $40

SportsChump: 38-40-2 -$80

Celebrity Guests: 39-40-1 -$170

Trying to make sense of these Week 17 playoff scenarios is like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube while on acid.  Plenty of teams have been eliminated but all those alive are still jockeying for position, and even, a division title.  No number one seed has been locked down and only one division, the NFC East, has been sealed.  Kudos once again to the NFL schedulers.  This weekend’s outcomes will answer a lot of questions, including who might grab those coveted byes. 

Our celebrity guest this week is Mr. Dave Bradley who you can catch practicing his chops at local comedy clubs and talking about the Orlando Magic, not necessarily in that order.  His latest gig is at the Sunshine City Comedy Club on January 23-24 so go support your local artists.

But before we get to his picks, let’s have a hearty chuckle at mine.

$50 on Arizona Cardinals/Cincinnati Bengals (Over 52 ½)

For some, it’s the final week of the NFL season.  And by some, I mean starters.  It’s unlikely that you’ll see superstars from eliminated teams play in Week 18.  Why risk it?  That means it’s possible this is the last time you’ll see Joe Burrow throw to JaMaar Chase this season, and if the disgruntlement continues, maybe ever.  The Bengals scored at will last weekend in Miami.  This time they’ll try their luck against Arizona.  Here’s what you need to know about these two teams.  Their defenses are bad.  They both rank bottom five in points allowed.  So why not display fireworks.  It’s the only thing that is keeping Bengals fans smiling.  The number is high 52 ½ but if this is a track meet, which it could very well be with Burrow and Brissett doing what they do, we could see plenty of points.  Both quarterbacks might be auditioning for starting gigs with another team.  Defenses don’t want to get hurt.  Offenses want to get out and run.  I’ll take this game over.

$40 on Orange Bowl: Oregon Bucks at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+2 ½)

Let’s take a stab at some college since I haven’t in a while.  I believe it’s about time we stopped underestimating Texas Tech.  This program that gets no love whatsoever is top five in the nation in both points allowed per game and total yards per game.  And yet, Oregon is favored.  Go figure.  It’s no surprise that, even after the season they’ve had, they’re only fifth best odds to win a national championship behind Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and you guessed it, Oregon.  Oregon will have to travel as far as any bowl team will, all the way down to Miami, where they’ll be playing on grass, not turf, which should work to the Red Raiders’ advantage.  The Raiders also get after you defensively, second in the nation in sacks.  Oregon will soon find out they’re not able to do the things they normally do.  I’m taking the points, even calling for an upset.  Texas Tech plus the 2 ½.

$30 on Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+7 ½)

The Seattle Seahawks have a slim lead in the NFC West and a tenuous hold on a first-round bye.  I say tenuous because they have two road games left against playoff teams: San Fran in the final week and Carolina this week.  Carolina is not a playoff team, yet, but they’re sure trying to be.  They beat the Bucs last week and a win this week (combined with a Bucs loss at Miami) or a week 18 win in Tampa puts them in.  That means this is not a must win for them but one they’d sure like to have as it’s potentially their last home game of the season, unless of course they make the playoffs.  Seattle is one of the league’s best teams, but they are inconsistent.  Charlotte is a long way to travel, and seven-and-a-half points is a lot to lay, especially when Vegas thinks this game will go low.  The over/under is 42 ½ and is awfully tempting to bet over.  The Panthers were able to keep their game under against the Bucs and their defense will be active.  I’m taking Carolina and the 7 ½.

$20 on Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Under 48 ½)

You know who has quietly become one of the better defensive teams in the league?  The Jacksonville Jaguars.  Anyone with a time machine would read that last sentence and laugh, but this year, it’s true.  They are top ten in points allowed and tops in the league in rushing yards allowed per game.  That means something will have to give as the Colts have relied heavily on Jonathan Taylor with the return of Philip Rivers.  I lost betting the under last week as Niners/Colts went WAY over but I’m going low again.  The Jags now have two weeks tape on Rivers and the Colts offense and should know what to expect.  If the Colts defense even remotely steps up against a Jags team that is looking to seal this division, this game should stay close and low.  Give me the under 48 ½.

$10 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Total Points Scored Over 27)

If I’m losing money, I may as well stay consistent.  I had Bucs total points over, but their offense continues to struggle to the point that the name Josh Grizzard, offensive coordinator, elicits grimaces from fans who have watched their team score at will over the last five years.  To compound matters, the Bucs’ defense still can’t stop a nosebleed and will face rookie Quinn Ewers’ in his second professional start.  The Bengals did as they pleased against the Dolphins last week which means the Buccaneers might be able to as well.  They’ll be scoreboard watching as the Panthers try to ward off the Seattle Seahawks.  It’s not yet a must win for the Bucs, unless the Panthers beat the Seahawks, we think.  The Bucs’ projected total points scored is once again 27.  They’ll need to score, if only to make sure their offense works going into Week 18.  Give me the Bucs total over.

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: New England Patriots (-12.5) at New York Jets

I’m a bit uneasy putting this game at the top, but I certainly don’t trust the other options either. Drake Maye is a legit MVP candidate, so he’s one reason to have it here. New England’s chance at the top seed is another reason. When you look at the rivalry history, four of the last seven meetings have been one-score games. But the Patriots have a lot to play for and the Jets do not. Brady Cook gets another start and his QBR on the season is 9.7. Then there’s that turnover differential I mention every week, where the Jets are a -18 (dead last in the NFL – by a bunch). Hmm, maybe I don’t feel so bad about this pick after all. Patriots cover on the road.

$40: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) at Miami Dolphins

The Bucs have lost six of seven (and the kids of the world all scream in unison). SIX-SEVEN! SIX-SEVENNN! So why put Tampa Bay here? Well, like Pats-Jets, the Bucs have more to play for and the Dolphins are giving a backup QB another shot. Quinn Ewers starts again for Miami and he wasn’t bad last week. It was Miami’s defense that was. Miami’s biggest weapon on offense is De’Von Achane. That offense is more successful when he’s consistently making an impact. Tampa Bay ranks 7th against the run and controls its own destiny in taking the division. Translation: the Bucs have everything to play for and will do everything possible to force Ewers to beat them. Buccaneers cover on the road.

$30: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+7.5)

I’m not sure why the Panthers continue to be disrespected when it comes to lines, especially when playing at home. Carolina is 5-2 at home, including recent wins over the Bucs and Rams. They are 9-6 ATS. The Panthers have a lot to play for (the theme continues), considering the division and the playoffs are in sight. For Seattle? The number one seed is there for the taking. For me, it comes down to Sam Darnold’s performance. Over the last six games, Darnold has 7 TD and 7 INT. He’s fallen below his season completion percentage average in all of those games. My gut says this will be a close game throughout. Give me the Panthers and the points at home.

$20: Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Maybe it’s not a lot to play for, in this instance. Baltimore has faint playoff hopes, but also needs the Steelers to lose out. Green Bay has clinched a playoff berth thanks to Detroit’s loss on Christmas. However, there are faint division title hopes for the Packers. But like the Ravens, they also need the Bears to lose out. Enter the likelihood of both backup QB’s starting this game. Talk about another wrinkle. Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis are both mobile and talented, but mistakes are likely to be made. I’m looking at Green Bay’s 6th ranked defense (301.6 ypg allowed) to make big plays at home. Packers cover at home.

$10: Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions (+3.5) vs Clemson Tigers

The opt-out situation in this game is pure insanity. Perhaps not a shock considering two preseason top five teams that had title aspirations. Per Dabo Swinney, Clemson will be without 27 players due to injury or opt-outs. That includes eight starters in its last game. Seven of Clemson’s top twelve defenders (by snap count totals) will not play. Meanwhile, Penn State will be without star RB Nick Singleton and FOUR of its starting five offensive linemen. That made me check sacks, in which Clemson has 33 on the season. PSU all-time leading rusher Kaytron Allen will reportedly play, but how much – and will he have a running lane? So why not roll with my alma mater? Give me Penn State and the points in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Celebrity Guest: Dave Bradley (Career: 10-5, +$130)

$50 Titans +2.5

$40 Jaguars -5.5

$30 Ravens +2.5

$20 Texans +1

$10 Rams -7.5