Week 18 College/NFL Picks: The Grand Finale

Let’s talk about information.  After all, information is the most important factor, or at least should be, when it comes to placing wagers. 

It’s difficult for Kevin and I or anyone for that matter, to place wagers well ahead of time without complete and correct information.

Or allow me to rephrase.  It’s easy for us to place those wagers.  It’s just tricky for us to place winning wagers. 

Professional sports teams have deadlines within which they must reveal players’ injury status, but that information is influx, and certain teams remain tight-lipped, despite the requirements. 

Any gambler will tell you, information is the best arsenal and the sooner you have it, the better.  It’s rare that you’ll have more information than the books setting the line, but it’s best to go in with your guns loaded.  Any edge helps.  We might still lose the bet but at least we went in informed.

Cheers to another great season of football, as unpredictable as ever.  And here’s to you guys.  Thanks to all those who participated.  We will assuredly do it again next year.  And a Happy New Year to Kevin who, with a winning final week, will be the only one among us to post a winning record, barely.

There will be no celebrity guest picking games this week in honor of Kid Sheraton, who can never be replaced.  I will have a roast of all those who participated in an upcoming post, revealing our five-year results, so stay tuned… but first, I’ll take…

$50 on Tetairoa McMillan (Over 60 ½ receiving yards)

Remember, the theme of this post is information.  Going into the final weeks of the season, you can find reports detailing who needs to attain what goal for end-of-season incentives.  Incentives are how teams maneuver their way around the salary cap.  Teams can’t pay every player what they’re worth, but they CAN build incentives into a contract to reimburse players for reaching certain milestones, i.e., receptions and receiving yards for receivers, rushing yards for running backs, sacks and interceptions for defensive players.  You get the point.  This late in the season, with team’s playoff positioning either solidified, tenuous or eliminated, these incentives add a wrinkle.  Enter: the Carolina Panthers.  Tet McMillan has almost single-handedly put the Panthers back on the map.  This weekend, they travel to Tampa with a playoff spot on the line.  The Panthers can lose this game and, thanks to tie-breaker rules, still make the playoffs if Atlanta beats New Orleans.  The Panthers are in this position thanks in large part to a rookie.  The Arizona product is 71 yards short of 1000 yards receiving and 80 yards away from the Panthers rookie record set by Kelvin Benjamin in 2014.  McMillan’s over/under for receiving yards is 60 ½.  Not only will they be playing to win this game, but Carolina also faces a Tampa secondary that is bottom seven in passing yards allowed.  McMillan should be able to get that number easily.  Maybe consider a ladder here if you’re feeling frisky.  Tet McMillan over 60 ½ receiving yards.

$40 on Tony Pollard (Over 67 ½ rushing yards)

Let’s look at Tony Pollard next.  When it comes to incentives, I look not only at what they need but whether a) that player is in good standing with the team and b) those goals can come within the context of the game.  One gets the impression that the Titans are happy with Pollard’s work.  They went from using two backs to primarily relying on Pollard for their carries.  Pollard needs 66 yards rushing to cash in on a $250,000 bonus.  The Titans will be going against the Jags this week who are all but locked into the third seed.  They can land the two but that’s unlikely unless the Patriots lose to the Dolphins.  While stout against the run, the Jags may pull starters allowing Pollard to cash in on that number.  I’ll take Tony Pollard over 67 ½ rushing yards.

$30 on Baker Mayfield (Passing Yards Over 220 ½)

This one is not so much about incentives.  Well, it is but it’s not.  Wide receivers Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka both have incentives on the line but who’s going to get them the ball.  Baker Mayfield, that’s who.  Mayfield has been awful lately, reverting to his former self.  The early part of the season saw him lighting up the yard, his name even mentioned in MVP conversations.  Not so much these days.  His team has dropped seven of their last eight games; they need help to make the playoffs.  That help will start with a win on Saturday.  I’ve lost plenty of money waiting on this Buccaneers offense to come around.  This is as must win as they come and Baker’s total passing yards is market low for him.  The number is 220 ½.  He’s going against his former team and while he doesn’t play well in Carolina, he does play well against the Panthers in Tampa.  The Buccaneers’ second half of the season has disappointed the entire bay area.  There’s no way Baker doesn’t leave it all out on the field.  Take his passing yards over (also consider the ladder here at 250+ and 275+)

$20 on Juaun Jennings (Over 5 receptions)

Juaun Jennings needs 7 receptions for an extra $666,666 under his Christmas tree.  He’s minus money at four receptions but plus money at six which puts him even money over at 5.  The Niners host the Seattle Seahawks with the NFC West title and top seed on the line.  A win and they get a week’s rest.  Jennings’ targets dipped last week but he’s San Fran’s most targeted receiver on the season.  Working him into a victorious game plan shouldn’t be all that difficult.  We’ll be seeing plenty of Christian McCaffrey but this one-two punch should keep their eyes on the prize.  Give me Jennings over 5 receptions.

$10 on Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2 ½)

Okay, I’ll bite.  Besides, I’ve lost enough money betting on the Buccaneers at the end of this season while waiting on them to solidify a playoff spot.  It’s hard to pinpoint what is wrong with this team but there are plenty of fingers to point, and plenty of guilty personalities to point them at.  It’s their last game of the season and they haven’t won at home since November.  I know this is going against the trend but it’s my final pick of the season.  Bucs cover at home.

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

Let’s get crazy, shall we? We have a battle for the NFC’s top seed. Winner gets the bye. Why not make it the highest confidence game of the week? The Niners took game one earlier in the year in Seattle. In fact, San Francisco seems to be clicking offensively at the right time, averaging over 42 points a game over the last three weeks (Titans, Colts, and Bears). George Kittle has been battling through injuries and is expected to be back. On the flip side, Sam Darnold has been up-and-down as of late. Over his last seven games, Darnold has 8 TD and 8 INT. This game comes down to Darnold and whether Seattle’s 3rd ranked run defense can shut Christian McCaffrey down. I don’t see it. 49ers cover at home.

$40: CFP Quarterfinal: 6) Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5) – Rebs blew late lead earlier in year

Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes back in October. I picked the Rebels in that game. They took care of Tulane last week. The Ole Miss offense showed plenty of explosiveness despite the absence of Lane Kiffin. That was to be expected, but it was also Tulane. This is SEC rival Georgia. The Bulldogs appear to be peaking defensively at the right time. Georgia has allowed 29 points combined over its last four games. That includes games against Texas, Alabama, and Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs have allowed just 12 passing TD’s over 13 games. This should be a fun watch, but my gut says the Bulldogs keep rolling. Georgia covers at the Sugar Bowl.

$30: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

This feels like a trap game. Detroit put up 52 points on the Bears back in September, but this is a very different Chicago team. The Bears can earn the #2 seed with a win or an Eagles loss. That would set up a matchup with the rival Packers – a team that is battling through a crippling number of injuries. Dan Campbell will not rest his players, at least that’s what the reports are saying, despite the fact the Lions are out of it. The Lions have lost three straight (to the Rams, Steelers, and Vikings). Not exactly offensive juggernauts. Plain and simple, Chicago has more to play for and will not be resting anyone. Bears cover at home.

$20: CFP Quarterfinal: 9) Alabama Crimson Tide (+7.5) vs 1) Indiana Hoosiers

Playoff teams with a bye are 0-5 as I write this. That includes Miami’s surprising upset victory over Ohio State. We all know Indiana is the real deal, but how will they carry the weight of being the top seed and facing a blue blood team like Alabama? For me it comes down to Fernando Mendoza making plays when it matters. Alabama’s pass defense ranks 10th in College Football (168.4 ypg allowed). The Crimson Tide has 11 INT’s on the year and only 13 passing TD’s allowed. Alabama took off after an abysmal start at Oklahoma last week. My gut says they build off that momentum and hang with the top-seeded Hoosiers. Give me Indiana and the points at the Rose Bowl.

$10: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) – for division

This should be fun. One of the most heated rivalries in sports for the division title and a playoff berth. Lamar Jackson appears trending to return and start, which will be huge for Baltimore. I had the Ravens penciled in to start the week and changed my mind after looking at the rivalry’s recent history. Since Lamar Jackson’s debut in 2018, the Ravens have faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh seven times. The Steelers are 4-3 in those games. Two of the three losses were by a combined five points and one went to OT. Nine of the last eleven have been one-score games. Expect a dog fight. Give me the Steelers and the points at home.