“He’s better at this than I’ve ever been at anything in my life. He’s better at this than you’ll ever be, at anything. My son has a gift.”
Joe Mantegna in “Searching for Bobby Fischer”
“I think about it every night and day, I’m addicted, wanna drown inside your love. I wouldn’t wanna have it any other way, I’m addicted and I just can’t get enough.”
Black Eyes Peas, “Just Can’t Get Enough”
There’s this unforgettable scene from the underrated 1990s classic Searching for Bobby Fischer. Joe Mantegna’s young son is a chess savant. When struggling at school, Mantegna and his wife are called in to talk to the teacher, played by the relatively then unknown Laura Linney. Linney explains that Mantegna’s son is underachieving. Mantegna responds in kind in the film’s most memorable and quotable moment, berating Linney and storming out of the room, explaining that his son has… a gift.
Roger Goodell also has a gift, perhaps even, a superpower. That gift is the uncanny, and unmatched, ability to instill parity into the NFL. The resulting product is priceless and infinitely watchable.
What we have seen so far in these playoffs, and what we have watched this entire NFL season, is nothing short of perfectly crafted equality, the chase of a title between teams that are so evenly matched, it’s impossible to predict who will emerge victorious. Sure, there will always be the mismanaged, the Raiders, the Titans, the Jets, etc. but the league has been designed to give even those teams a chance to improve through the draft. Never has the phrase “on any given Sunday” rung truer. On the wrong day, even the most unsuspecting team can upend you with an upset, or at a minimum cover the point spread.
The teams that made this year’s playoffs were unpredictably unpredictable. The Broncos and the Seahawks landed the two one-seeds. No one in their right mind would have suggested that in September. The Patriots and Jaguars were not only relevant again but dangerous. And get this. The Bears won a playoff game. I repeat… the BEARS WON A PLAYOFF GAME!
Not only did they win a playoff game, but they did so in a fashion that left their fans pinching themselves in disbelief, as delighted as any of them not yet alive in the 80s have ever been.
I worked last Saturday night. ‘Twas a busy one with the entire crowd riveted by the (yes, they’re calling it historic) Bears comeback. Chicago was down 21-3 at half, and both 21-9 and 27-16 in the fourth quarter. A comeback seemed unlikely, a back-to-the-drawing-board locker room conversation far more in the cards. Same ol’ Bears. A friend of mine sat on his barstool dejected, his neatly pressed Bears shirt, the sounds of cackling Packers fans coming pinprickily from the other end of the bar as their team ran up the score.
As they walked out, their team up comfortably, one had the nerve to lean over to my friend and ask him, “Are you crying yet?” I’d introduced them earlier so I suppose they felt such a comment would not get their ass kicked. Besides, my friend is not the ill-tempered Ditka-type of Bears fan, his persona of a far more chill Refrigerator Perry. He shrugged it off, then eventually left to watch the rest of the game, writhing in the discomfort of his own home.
If you were paying attention Saturday night, you’d know the Bears came back in near-inexplicable fashion to win the game. In only his second year, and only a single game, Caleb Williams erased every single doubt of his #1 draft status.
Parity means equality. That means that any team can beat any other team at any time. It makes for greater television. Networks and streaming services scratch together billions to broadcast their product and why wouldn’t they? NFL ratings are at an all-time and continue to climb. That Packers-Bears game broke a streaming service record, with more than 34 million viewers, and became an instant classic for anyone not wearing a plastic piece of cheese on their head.
Earlier that day, not to be outdone, the heavily favored Rams (-10 ½) barely escaped with a victory in Carolina. It was a game that the Rams could, and perhaps should, have lost. Rest assured, parity what it is, you will not see another double-digit point spread this post-season. The gambling services don’t want that exposure.
Sunday morning began with yet another game that went down to its final possession, Josh Allen’s Bills besting the Jags. Want another? The Eagles down to their last gasp, lost to San Fran. The nightcap? Chargers-Patriots, another confoundingly unpredictable outcome. The first favorite finally covered, but not without a sweat. It took until late in the weekend’s final game to see the Houston Texans blow out the Steelers.
However they did it, the NFL has achieved glowingly in its quest for parity. No one would have ever thought Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson would be watching the games from the comfort of their own mansions. No one would have predicted that three second-year quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Bo Nix) would not only lead their teams to the playoffs but also land three of the top four seeds.
Here’s another indication that the league has perfected parity.
You guys remember Fibbs, long time friend, reader and website participant from back in the day. Fibbs hosted a pick ‘em pool this year where you chose games against the spread and assigned each of them confidence points. He submitted two entries this year, one in which he picked games with his gut and another in which, no matter what, he took teams and the points.
That entry won the entire pool.
That’s not to say that underdogs covered more than they did not, but what we did see is only seven teams with a disparity of five games over more ATS in either direction. The Rams, Seahawks and Jags were 12-5 against the spread. The Pats were 11-5-1. The Cards and Ravens were 6-11 ATS and the Bucs 5-12. Every other team landed somewhere between 10-6 and 6-10, which means games were dangerously unpredictable and gamblers took a beating. Don’t be surprised if casinos nationwide report record earnings.
In our annual contest, to be broken down in a later post, not one of us finished in the money.
And so, we have parity, and with it, unpredictability, and with that, incredibly entertaining football, for you never know what will happen. If you tell me with any certainty who will win this year’s Super Bowl, or even this weekend’s football games, I’ll tell you where to stick that bridge… even though I’ll still be tempted to buy it.
