I got this text from a friend not long ago. ‘Twas from a gambling app boasting how some lucky fellow had just cashed a monster pay out. 45 grand!!!
The Twitter post came from what one can only presume is a reputable source, i.e. Caesars Sportsbook, shown in the image below as “Twitter verified.” Their promo boasted that a client of theirs “turned $100 into $45,300” on a three-leg parlay.
As of right now, this promo remains online. They have yet to respond to my comment of how it could be true. The numbers just don’t add up.
If you’re like me, and God help you if you are, you have multiple friends on multiple text strings who report their hunches, their plays, their earnings, their wins and their beats.
Even the most seasoned gambler can get tripped up by benign temptation. Trust me, there’s not a time that I don’t walk into my local Hard Rock thinking I’m not going to win when, in all likelihood… I’m not going to win.
This absolutely bullshit Caesar’s SportsBook post, however, said that by simply parlaying three different outcomes, one of their clients earned 45 thousand. To be clear, it’s not impossible to reach those kinds of odds on a three-team parlay but the underdogs you’d have to include would be considerably remote.
I’ve bet Isaiah Hartenstein double-doubles before. For those of you who don’t know, a double-double is when a player racks up double digits in two statistical categories. For example, Jarrett Allen recorded a double-double in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals by scoring 13 points and grabbing ten rebounds.
The odds of that happening pre-game were only around +250 or two-and-a-half times your wager. The odds on either Karl Anthony Towns or Victor Wembanyama logging double-doubles in the Finals were significantly minus because they do it all the time. The odds of Hartenstein pulling down ten (or more) points and ten (or more) rebounds are also decent based on his position and his style of play. In 2024-25, Hartenstein averaged a double-double (11.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg) so the odds of him recording those numbers on any given night were probably minus money and certainly not the combined +850 for 10+ points and +950 for 10+ rebounds that Caesar’s suggests. The additional assists thrown into the mix for +350 is minimal and incorrect.
My Hard Rock app, the only service Florida residents are legally allowed to use to gamble on sporting events, generally lists Hartenstein around +400 to record a double-double or a slightly greater +439 to record 10 plus points and 10 plus rebounds. Throw in the three plus assists and my app will pay +794, or just shy of eight times your money and most certainly not the extravagant 453 times your money that Caesar’s is flaunting.
You get the point.
Danny Funt recently wrote an eye-opening book entitled “Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling” in which he warns that gambling services are intentionally misleading customers. Parlays, he claims, can account for up to 60% of a site’s revenue. Remember that the next time you put two or more outcomes together.
The industry is too new for there to be any sort of regulation, there are no checks and balances, which means if you don’t know what you’re doing, or even if you do, you can easily be misled and fleeced out of your money.
Online gambling services aren’t the first American institution to ram intentionally misleading advertising down our throats. You can’t open a magazine or turn on a television set without seeing an ad for a drug company promoting a medication that “cures” one symptom by adding multiple others. Nor would, or even should, we expect any sort of morality from an industry whose odds are so substantially steeped in its favor. That’s like being disappointed when you don’t get a Christmas card from your heroine dealer.
It’s safe to say that the only ones looking out for us are ourselves. There are a few good people still out there, ones who give gambling advice and hold themselves accountable, like Fiddles Picks. Otherwise, fellow gamblers, tread lightly, and be careful who you listen to.
I’m not saying you shouldn’t wager. Do so to your heart’s content but within your bankroll. Beware of the shady, titillating ads promising you a bogus return. Know what numbers you should be getting and why. 453 to 1 isn’t even remotely close to what an Isaiah Hartenstein three-way parlay would have rewarded its winner and I’m quite certain Caesars isn’t the only app promoting false payouts.
We’re a nation built on marketing and a crumbling lack of accountability, where we unknowingly hum jingles and subconsciously purchase products based on whatever superstar promotes them. Always remember, the more information you have, the better prepared you are to turn wagers into winners and parlays into profit.
