SportsChump’s Sweet 16th Annual Over/Under Pick ‘Em Contest

Wow!

16 years! 

We are now old enough to drive a car without adult supervision, however, I don’t recommend it.  I’d plug Sixteen Candles into my VCR to celebrate, but I’ve always been much more of a Ferris Bueller guy. 

Our contest has gotten so fancy that we’re even registering on AI!  A recent CHAT GPT search gave a straightforward overview of the contest providing me the comfort in knowing that my Nvidia stock is being put to good use.  Memo to self: Sell stock now.

Before we reveal last year’s surprise winner, as we traditionally do, I thought we’d go over the 2025 NFL teams with the biggest discrepancies in their actual versus projected win totals.

Only four teams last year finished three-and-a-half games or better over their projected win total.  It should come as no surprise that not only did these four teams win their respective divisions, two of them reached the Super Bowl.

Denver: 2025 Projected Win Total: 9.5 – Actual Win Total: 14

Jacksonville: 2025 Projected Win Total: 7.5 – Actual Win Total: 13

New England: 2025 Projected Win Total: 8.5 – Actual Win Total: 14

Seattle: 2025 Projected Win Total: 7.5 – Actual Win Total: 14

You’d be hard-pressed to think these four won’t make the playoffs again… or will they?  That’s why they play the games.  For some reason, Denver’s number remains 9.5, Jacksonville’s has been bumped to 8.5 and both of last year’s Super Bowl teams saw their projected wins increase to 10.5.

Now, let’s talk about the underachievers as there were far more of those.  There always are.

Cardinals: For some reason, Las Vegas thought Arizona would win 8.5 games last year.  They won three.  That’s not so much the Cardinas as it is on Vegas.  In retrospect, that was the easiest money on the board.

Ravens: Missing the post-season for only the second time since 2018, tallying only eight regular season wins, three-and-a-half under their projected win total, Baltimore dismissed their head coach and looks to start anew in 2026 behind 29-year-old Lamar Jackson and 32-year-old Derrick Henry.  They’re older, but seriously, would you doubt those guys?  On second thought, we didn’t doubt them last year and look what happened.

Bengals: Cincinnati had only six wins, three-and-a-half under their projected win total but seriously, when DOESN’T Cincinnati underachieve?  Unlike Baltimore, the Bengals decided to hold onto their head coach who, one would presume, is on thin ice.  Then again, this team kept Marvin Lewis employed for an eternity.

Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes and company went a very un-Chiefs-like 6-11, a whopping five-and-a-half wins under their projected total.  The Chiefs had made the playoffs every year since 2015.  A no longer as spry Pat Mahomes returns from ACL and MCL surgery.

Raiders: I’m trying to think back as to why Las Vegas thought the football team that now resides in their city would win 7.5 games last season.  Was it the Geno Smith signing?  Either way, they won three games and Smith led the league in interceptions.

Jets: Someone thought the Jets would win 6.5 games last season?  I guess that was because they’d signed Justin Fields.  Fields is now a Chief.  The Jets still suck.

Commanders: Jayden Daniels’ sophomore campaign was a relative disappointment.  While playing in only 7 games in 2025, he went 2-5.  His Commanders won five games, four-and-a-half under their projected total.

When wagering on this year’s over/under’s, feel free to use this information to your benefit, or detriment.

Now, on to our real winners.  Only six contestants entered but that won’t stop us from hosting again this year.  Everyone has a down year.  Just ask Jayden Daniels.

In last place, me.  We don’t like to talk about that so let’s move on.

In fifth place, with 21 out of a possible 55 points, BCole, but she still beat me, so bragging rights.

In fourth place, KP, with 26 points.  That’s okay.  He’ll be losing this year’s weekly pick ‘em as well.

In third place, multiple year participant and previous winner (2012) of this contest, Ravenous with 31 points.

In second place, they call Alabama the Crimson Tide, you can call him Deacon Blues.

And, at long last, in the blind squirrel finding a nut division, first time winner and multiple year participant.  Let’s give a big round of applause for…. J-Dub!!!  In a tough year for predicting over/unders, Dub’s was the only one to have faith in Seattle going over their number.  Shrewd foresight, sir.  Congratulations. I probably owe you about six SportsChump’s shirts by now.  You can sew them all together into a quilt to keep you warm in the winter months.  I’ll get on my printer people to get this ball rolling.  Now, let’s see if you can repeat as champion!

The rules of this contest remain unchanged.

In the comments section below, choose ten teams in order of confidence (ten points to the most confident, one point to the least) to finish over or under their projected win total.  Per tradition, as your tiebreak, list the total number of wins for the three NFL teams (Miami, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay).  A fabulous and hearty, perhaps even lucrative, prize pack will be awarded to this year’s winner.

Arizona Cardinals       3.5

Atlanta Falcons            7.5

Baltimore Ravens        11.5

Buffalo Bills    10.5

Carolina Panthers       7.5

Chicago Bears               9.5

Cincinnati Bengals     9.5

Cleveland Browns      5.5

Dallas Cowboys           9.5

Denver Broncos           9.5

Detroit Lions  10.5

Green Bay Packers     9.5

Houston Texans           9.5

Indianapolis Colts      7.5

Jacksonville Jaguars  9.5

Kansas City Chiefs     10.5

Las Vegas Raiders      5.5

Los Angeles Chargers 10.5

Los Angeles Rams      11.5

Miami Dolphins            4.5

Minnesota Vikings      8.5

New England Patriots               10.5

New Orleans Saints   7.5

New York Giants          7.5

New York Jets                 5.5

Philadelphia Eagles   10.5

Pittsburgh Steelers     8.5

San Francisco 49ers 10.5

Seattle Seahawks       10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           8.5

Tennessee Titans        6.5

Washington Commanders   7.5

Good luck, all, and happy footballing!