2025 Recap and Off We Go to Week One, Starring Croshere

Five years.

450 football games.

A lot of fake money and a lot of bad decisions.

Welcome to YEAR SIX of Kevin Paul’s (The Wife Hates Sports) and my little experiment where we choose five games every week against the spread.  In doing so, we’ve recruited our gambling brothers and sisters to compete against us.

So, what have we learned over these last five years?  What has this whole thing taught us other than what we already knew, which is that we love to gamble and we’re all far too often incorrect?  Whether it’s the financial windfall that pays for a nice night out or simply the ability to say that “We told you so,” football season brings an inherent desire for us to place a friendly wager just to see what happens. 

We also know that gambling can be a risky endeavor, as we were rudely reminded in 2025.  Last year was the first in which all three of us (yours truly, Kevin, and our collective band of merry prognosticators) all finished owing the house money.

Last year, the college and professional football lines cleaned our collective clocks.  It was a filthy, unpredictable season.

That’s the bad news. 

Here’s the good news.

We are all over .500 and plus money since we’ve been hosting the contest so there is no need for a second mortgage… yet.

If I’ve said it once on this site, I’ve said it 1,000 times.  To beat the house, you need to choose over 52.4% of your games correctly to cover the juice.  As you can see, we’re all damn close.

So, let’s keep it up, shall we?  Happy footballing, everyone!

$50 on David Montgomery Any Time TD (-125)

The Texans begin their season at home against another AFC powerhouse, the Buffalo Bills.  It’ll undoubtedly be one of the best games of the week, dare I say even, an AFC Championship Game preview?  The Bills ranked tops in the league last season in yards allowed through the air.  You know where they suffered?  Against the run, where they ranked bottom five.  Ironically, Houston’s weakness last season was their run game.  So, what did they do?  They went out and landed David Montgomery in the off-season.  And boy are they going to use him. You’re not going to buy a new car and not kick the tires on it, right?  The Bills will know what’s coming.  If you agree with this logic, you can get Montgomery over 15 rush attempts at plus money.  The Texans are going to want to open the season with a statement that the conference championship will not run through Buffalo but rather through Houston.  Montgomery will be key in accomplishing that goal.  Look for him to carry the load and reach pay dirt in Week One.

$40 on Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

I read that the Dallas Cowboys will be missing offensive guard Tyler Smith thanks to thumb surgery.  Normally, I don’t like teams having to jockey around offensive linemen before the season starts but they’re playing the Giants.  I expect big things out of Dallas this season.  I’ve drafted both Dak Prescott and Javonte Williams on my fantasy team.  I’ve even considered placing a small nut on a Dak for MVP future.  Last year, the Cowboys came out of the gate strong.  With so much offensive firepower, there’s no reason to think that won’t happen again.  Meanwhile, all we heard from Giants camp this offseason was drama and disruption.  New coach John Harbaugh will want to win his home opener, but the G-Men have too many question marks, including whether Malik Nabers is 100% and how high on the numbskull rankings can we find Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo.  I’m not entirely convinced the Giants can keep up with what Dallas will be putting down.  Cowboys cover the three on the road.

$30 on Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

What are we to make of the Commanders?  Is Jayden Daniels everything we thought he’d be in his rookie campaign or was his second season far more an inkling of what we’re going to get from here on out.  Starting his season off in Philadelphia will test what he’s made of.  A year older, the Eagles seem to be flying under the radar.  They are unquestionably an NFC title contender, and we’ve heard very little from them in the off-season, which is probably a good thing.  That’s a veteran team for you.  Washington has too many moving parts for my liking, including a key offensive line injury.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia appears ready to go about their business like they always do.  Not flashy but effective.  Give me the birds at home to cover the four-and-a-half.

$20 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Cincinnati Bengals (Over 50 ½)

Bucs-Bengals is the highest over/under (50 ½) on the board for a reason.  Not only do these two quarterbacks love to air it out but their defenses are woeful.  Last year, Bengals were third to last in the league in points allowed per game and the Bucs were bottom six in yards allowed in the air.  This should be a fun game to watch, especially if you are starting any of these players in your fantasy leagues.  Baker Mayfield just signed a new contract.  He’ll want to earn his keep against a guy many believe to be the most talented in the league playing across from him.  I like fireworks in this one with Baker and Burrow both trying to whip it out to see which one is bigger.  Bucs-Bengals over 50.5.

$10 on New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-7)

The Lions cannot be happy about the way last season ended.  Between injuries and dysfunction, this uber-talented Lions team missed the playoffs and finished dead last in their division.  That won’t happen again this year.  As long as they stay healthy, the Lions should still be able to put up plenty of points.  A healthy, loaded defense should come out guns-a-blazin’.  A lot of people are high on New Orleans, but Tyler Shough is going to have to prove he can do it all season long, against difficult road teams like Detroit, before I’m ready to sign off on a successful Saints season.  Covering a touchdown spread shouldn’t be all that difficult for a team that can score at will, in front of a crowd that once again has high expectations for its team.  Lions cover the seven at home.

Note: We’re going to add a wrinkle this year.  It’s what I like to call… my parity test.

For a league that touts its own parity and unpredictability, we’re going to track how many underdogs win outright.  We will place a flat, $10 wager on every dog money line to see if we end up plus, or minus, on the season. 

Patriots (+155) at Seahawks (-$10)

49ers (+170) at Rams (+$17)

Buccaneers (+175) at Bengals

Browns (+350) at Jaguars

Ravens at Colts (+155)

Bills at Texans (+100)

Bears at Panthers (+140)

Falcons (+150) at Steelers

Saints (+260) at Lions

Jets (+105) at Titans

Commanders (+195) at Eagles

Packers (+100) at Vikings

Dolphins (+155) at Raiders

Cardinals (+400) at Chargers

Cowboys at Giants (+130)

Broncos (+120) at Chiefs

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Let’s kick off the season by rolling with a heated NFC East rivalry. Seems wise, right? I honestly like the moves that Washington made during the offseason. Jayden Daniels is immensely talented, but will he be able to stay healthy for the entire season? The injury to Laremy Tunsil is a killer for the Commanders and leaves a gaping hole in Washington’s offensive line. On the flip side, Philly is physical and downright nasty in the trenches. I expect Saquon Barkley to have a bounce back season (and drafted him in Fantasy, accordingly). Rivalry or not, I don’t expect this game to be all that close. Eagles cover at home.

$40: Penn State Nittany Lions (-23.5) at Temple Owls – Lincoln Financial Field

It’s been one measly game against a mediocre Marshall team, but the vibe surrounding Penn State is incredibly different and unbelievably refreshing. Matt Campbell brings boatloads of accountability, positivity, and energy. QB Rocco Becht brings experience and efficiency. Becht has a plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal, including WR Koby Howard, who was severely underutilized by James Franklin. D’Anton Lynn’s defense is explosive. The game will be played at “The Linc” (home of the NFL’s Eagles). Considering PSU’s alumni presence, this will feel like a home game. Also, Philly won’t even paint the field for the Owls. If that ain’t a sign of what’s to come, I don’t know what is. Nittany Lions cover in Philly.

$30: Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

I ended last season picking the Bears as 2 1/2 point favorites in the $30 slot. I’ll pivot and note that only three teams in the NFC had a better record at home than the Panthers in 2025. Despite their 8-9 record, Carolina does play better in front of its home crowd. It’s still quite hot in the Carolinas and not sure if that will have any major impacts. But overall, despite Carolina’s recent success at home, I believe in Ben Johnson and his offensive scheme. The combination of Williams, Swift, Odunze, Burden, and Loveland should be difficult for any defense to handle. Despite the home field advantage, with the line as it is, I like the talent of the Bears more, especially with the season kicking off. Bears cover on the road.

$20: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogs (-40.5)

There was a small part of me that was tempted to roll with a block of five 30-plus-point favorites in College Football, as there is a significant block of those this week – and many that I’ll likely bet on. But that doesn’t really move the needle when it comes to top confidence picks and getting readers intrigued. Most of you guys don’t care about this SEC team beating “Barnyard State” and that SEC team trampling Popcorn A&M. People want high visibility games, so I decided to settle on one. This one. Western Kentucky lost 49-14 on the road against Nevada last week. That’s 35 points. Now, they get Georgia on the road. Do I really need to list players and other reasons? Eh, no. Georgia covers at home.

$10: Ohio State Buckeyes (+2) at Texas Longhorns

Go big or go home, as they say. No reason to shy away from the biggest game of the week, right? The Buckeyes and Longhorns are extremely talented – we all know that. The NIL dollars are flying! It’ll come down to coaching and quarterback play. Julian Sayin opened 2026 with no rust, posting an 84% completion percentage, 3 TD and 320 yards passing vs Ball State. Last year, he posted 77% completion percentage 32 TD’s and 8 INT. As for Arch Manning, he had 4 TD, 1 INT, 305 yards passing, and 74% completion percentage vs Texas State. In 2025, 61.4% completion percentage and 36 total TD’s. Plain and simple, OSU has been winning games like this for years now. Give me Ohio State and the points on the road.

Croshere’s Picks (Career 9-15, -$120)

50 — Ohio State +1½ at Texas

Hold the phone before everybody gets upset and calls this Croshere’s homer pick! I truly believe Ohio State is the much BETTAH team. The No. 1 ranking is deserved, and getting points with the Buckeyes against anybody in the country is the best value on the board.

Prediction: Ohio State 30, Texas 20

40 — USC -31 vs. Louisiana

The Ragin’ Cajuns were below .500 last year, and I think USC is an extremely formidable team—possibly even a national championship contender. Throw in the long trip to Los Angeles, and this will be a lot for Louisiana to digest.

Prediction: USC 55, Louisiana 10

30 — Buffalo Bills -1 at Houston Texans

In the immortal words of Charles Barkley: The Bills are simply the BETTAH team! At only one point, Croshere says don’t overthink it.

Prediction: Bills 27, Texans 12

20 — Tennessee Titans -1 vs. New York Jets

Same logic here: Croshere is rolling with the BETTAH team while only laying one. Sometimes football really is that simple.

Prediction: Titans 17, Jets 13

10 — Detroit Lions -7 vs. New Orleans Saints

The Lions are at home and only laying one touchdown against the Saints. They’re the much better team, and I expect Jared Goff and the crew to get on track immediately at Ford Field.

Prediction: Lions 34, Saints 17

There they are—Croshere’s Fab Five! All complaints will be reviewed on Monday. 😂🏈

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