Albert Einstein is largely credited with the proverb “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” but in what context did he say this?
Did he scribble it on a bar napkin for some lonely stranger to find?
Was he at some lecture where someone in the audience thought what he said was clever and then decided, pre-internet, to somehow ensure his words went viral?
Did Big Al mention this sentiment in passing to a friend who thought it might be a good idea to pass it along, telling another, “You won’t believe what Albert just told me! It was brilliant!” Then somehow, it just stuck?
Either way, whether he said it, wrote it, to whom, when and in what context, Good Ol’ Einstein is taking down this gesture for the win.
I am bringing this up because, once again, in Week One, we finished a collective poop sandwich.
A combined 6-9 for -$30.
Of course, the information we’re working with in Week One is limited so I’ll give us a relatively theoretical pass. See what I did there? But that doesn’t change the fact that we’re going to have to do better.
J-Dub joins us this week. He went a perfect 5-0 last year and is a career 13-12 for -$80. He runs his own weekly pick ‘em over at Dubsism if you’re looking for something ill-advised to wager on.
But before you switch links, I’ll take..
$50 on Cowboys/Commanders over 50.5 total points scored
There was a point early last season when several straight Cowboys games landed not just over, but way over. It’s why so many believed the Cowboys would start this season like gang busters. From Weeks 2 through 8, Vegas could never catch up to their number. Their game totals were 77, 45, 80, 59, 57, 66 and 68. That’s a lot of scoring, combined with some abysmal ball stoppage. In the off-season, Dallas went young, revamping its defense but a lot of those players were already injured in Week One. This weekend, after not being able to stop the New York Football Giants, they’ll face the Commanders. Jayden Daniels, like Jaxson Dart before him, can cause problems with his legs and looks healthy enough to keep Dallas’ defense on its heels once again. That means Dallas will have to kick its offense into high gear to keep up, which one would think they’re perfectly capable of. With Prescott not yet in sync with Lamb and Pickens, the Cowboys’ offense was rustier than most expected. Even automatic Aubrey was off. They’ll shore that up on Sunday. I see no D in Big D. Commanders/Cowboys over 50.5.
$40 on Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
You heard my joke about the Browns fan, right? Poor lot. After a loss in which he coughed up the football more than a sore throat kicking out a lozenge, Baker Mayfield will look to right the ship and put stick ‘em on his hands. This week, there’s not only the revenge of playing his former team but also retribution for a shitty game last Sunday. It’s also perfectly conceivable that the Browns fans in the stands will be rooting more for the Buccaneers quarterback than they will their own. This line opened at under a touchdown and kudos if you got it early because it soon skyrocketed to 8 ½. The Buccaneers’ offense should have no problem moving the football. Not sure I can say the same about Cleveland. I’ll happily take Bucs minus the six-and-a-half. Note: If you’re feeling frisky, take Baker to run one in at +475.
$30 on Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-6 ½)
Heeeeee’s baaaack!” is exactly what I texted my friends after Patrick Mahomes’ return. It looks like he hasn’t skipped a beat. We’ve become so accustomed to the Chiefs doing as they please that when that didn’t happen last year, we were all shocked. How could this be? Then Mahomes went down with a torn ACL and LCL. He must have the best doctor in town because last Monday night, against one of the best defenses in the league, Pat threw two touchdowns and ran for one more. This week, they’ll play against another quarterback that blew out his knee last year. Actually, Daniel Jones’ injury was a torn right Achilles. He looked far less mobile in his return. This week, without Keenan Allen, the Colts travel to Kansas City where they’ll play the Chiefs who look like a different squad with Kenneth Walker running the football. Even Travis Kelce looked rejuvenated. The crowd was raucous against Denver last Monday night. I expect more of the same. Rashee Rice wasn’t even a factor yet and the Chiefs still won by three touchdowns. The Colts couldn’t keep up with the Ravens at home in Week One. They’ll have problems doing the same in Kansas City in Week Two. Bummer of a schedule, dude. Chiefs cover the six-and-a-half.
$20 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points scored Over 25.5
I’m probably loading up too much on one single game but, with what the Browns are putting on the field, in the Florida September heat, the Buccaneers offense should be able to do what they want against Cleveland. The Bucs are still adjusting to life without the greatest receiver in team history, but they still have plenty of weapons in that locker room. The Bucs turned the ball over four times last week against Cincinnati and still put up 27 points. They’ll go back to the drawing board, giving Bucky Irving the ball plenty, and trying to figure out whether Emeka Egbuka can fill the number one slot that Mike Evans left vacant. Either way, we should see the Buccaneers with plenty of opportunities to score the football. Bucs total points scored over 25.5
$10 on Louisiana State Tigers (-2 ½) at Ole Miss Rebels
I’ve said some mean things about Lane Kiffin over the years. He’s an easy target. I even have a slew of texts saved from my fellow Gator brethren talking him up, then shooting him down once he decided to diss Florida for LSU. Gator fans don’t like to think of themselves as secondary citizens. As soon as Kiffin stepped foot in Baton Rouge, drama accompanied him. Not a week goes by when his name isn’t in some sort of scandal. It seemed like Florida fans had dodged a bullet. Then Lane Kiffin and company embarrassed Clemson on national television, handing Dabo Sweeney his worse loss ever. Of course, this all came after the hullabaloo of LSU signing pro players which, to be fair, the Southeastern Conference has been doing for years, technically. This week, Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford, Mississippi where there’s probably still a For Sale sign on his house. He’ll be playing against kids he recruited at a school where he had double-digit wins. And that stadium will be loud. It better be. From what I saw against Clemson, LSU, led by a motivated, vengeful Lane Kiffin is frightening. As badly as the Ole Miss kids will want to beat their former coach, Kiffin’s new locker room won’t let that happen. This is a night game in Oxford. Kiffin may still have a soft spot for the kids playing on the opposite sidelines but don’t think for one second, he won’t win this game. Two-and-a-half seems like an easy cover. LSU leaves Oxford with a victory. LSU minus two-and-a-half. Note: Before wagering on this game, check the status of LSU starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, currently listed as doubtful.
Week Two Celebrity Guest: J-Dub (13-12, -$80)
Last year, I spoke to this challenge by running the table. One can do all the gambling smack-talk one wants, but we all know the odds are against a repeat performance are longer than Pinocchio’s nose if he too were a gambler. Besides, all the proof you need of my Doctrine of Fallibility is to look at the blood-letting I took last week in my own challenge. That’s why I decided in this year’s appearance, I would add a wrinkle just like Chump and KP; the difference being I’m bringing in the best consultants possible…you, the blog-reading gambler (if that’s not a cry for help, I don’t know what is).
Anyway, Instead of my speaking, I’m letting the web-addicted gambler guide me. The best way to see the masses speak is to look at opening lines, then watch how quickly they shift compared to the magnitude of the change. If were all about to beat the house, and the house moves it’s number based on our bets, it makes sense to see what that’s worth.
$50 – Dolphins at 49ers
Opening Line: SF -10, -110
Line as of this writing: SF -13.5, -110
When the lines first popped, this was one of the fattest. We all know double-digit spreads are not common in today’s NFL. The double-digit spread that balloons by over a field goal in less time than it takes to microwave a bag of popcorn is rarer still…and a two-tuddy spread might as well be a fucking Chupacabra. The Dolphins may easily be the worst team in football, and even if they aren’t, they aren’t a team that can go on the road and stay within ten points. Vegas was giving away free $50 bills with that opening line, and I got mine.
$40 – North Carolina at Clemson
Opening line: UNC +9.5, -108
Line as of this writing: UNC +3.5, -115
Book it right now. This is the loss that gets Dabo Swinney fired. The man dug his own grave with his refusal to engage the new “NIL/Transfer Portal” world. While there are those who think he’s “fighting the good fight” carrying the banner for the tatters of the “student-athlete” illusion, it also means he’s fielding a team of guys nobody else was willing to pay. Say what you will about the Fighting Belichicks, the Tar Heels already beat a team better than Clemson…and did it in an Irish monsoon. The best part? I don’t even need North Carolina to win…just stay within 9.
$30 – Packers at Jets
Opening line: NYJ +6.5, -110
Line as of this writing: NYJ +3.5, -110
There’s a “perfect storm” happening here’s. From one direction, a Jets team is riding a big wave of confidence coming home after handing it to their former head coach. I know, it’s not much, but it’s what they’ve got and let’s face it…it’s been a while. More importantly, it’s enough for me to buy $30 worth of J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS to stay inside of a touchdown. If you need more, from the other direction comes a Packer team fresh off a humiliating implosion in the home of one of their biggest rivals for all of America to see in the 4:25 ET slot; the same team that ONCE AGAIN dissolved in the fourth quarter faster than an Alka-Seltzer in a tub of battery acid. The Jets are another example of a team I don’t need to win…but they will, and I get 6.5 on top of it.
$20 – Eagles at Titans
Opening line: TEN +4.5, -110
Line as of this writing: TEN +7.5, -110
Vegas knows the Eagles offense isn’t made to blow you off the field with big plays. In fact, watching the Eagle offense clash with the Titans will look like a documentary about a blue sloth and a green sloth making a contest out of pounding rocks together. However, that still doesn’t change how Vegas found out in a hurry that 4.5 points weren’t enough to get people to pony up on a team that lost by two scores… at home…to the Jets. Slice it anyway you like, that number would need to move into double-digits before I’d take the Flaming Thumbtacks. In this case, the opening line is good enough #FlyEaglesFly.
$10 – Seahawks at Cardinals
Opening line: Ari +10, -110
Line as of this writing: Ari +4.5, -115
This was the other double digit line this week. It’s also what led to this approach because I really can’t figure out what happened here. If Vegas was writing off the Cardinals’ win over the Chargers, then why open with them as such a dog? Same deal applies to Sam Darnold’s “unique soft tissue injury.” Everybody knew Darold wasn’t playing this week. All of a sudden everybody believes in Jacoby Brissett to the tune of nearly a touchdown? The bottom line is the Seahawks are the defending champions, and Jacoby Brissett is still Jacoby Brissett. The Redbirds have a $10 shot at staying within 10 points of the Neon-highlighter Birds…but that’s it.
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8)
Never be quick to judge after the NFL’s first week. With that said, the Browns are terrible. We can be quick to judge on that. Any team that willingly picks Deshaun Watson as their starting QB after all he’s done (and how he’s performed since). Watson continues to steal headlines. “I think the media has this expectation that I’m supposed to throw for 400 yards and five touchdowns every week”. Well, 20 passing TD’s, 13 picks, and 26 civil lawsuits is not what Cleveland had in mind. As for the Bucs, they showed fight battling back against a very tough Cincy team. Rookies like Josiah Trotter showed a ton of promise and there should be plenty of motivation to bounce back in their home opener. Bucs cover at home.
$40: Eastern Washington Eagles (+43.5) at Washington Huskies
This is likely the first and last time I pick Eastern Washington on this site. This pick, however, is not about the Eagles – and yes, that’s their mascot. I had to look it up to confirm. Washington’s two wins were against teams (Washington State and Utah State) currently ranked 95th and 99th in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The issue has been injuries, especially in the running game, where the Huskies lost the top three backs on their depth chart for an extended time. A sixth-year transfer and true freshman are reportedly stepping in. The offense has been anemic. Therefore, if Eastern Washington scores just one TD, that means this offense needs to post 51 to cover. Yeah, give me Eastern Washington and the points.
$30: Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Tennessee Titans
Expectations are through the roof for Cam Ward and many expect him to take the next step, especially after being gifted new offensive weapons like Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson. Yet, a sub-60% completion percentage just isn’t going to cut it. That’s where he is after 18 career games, including last week. His Week 1 performance at home (vs the Jets, of all teams) was simply not good enough. Enter the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that has a lot more talent on both sides of the ball. Even this early in the season, this one seems like a no-brainer. Eagles cover on the road.
$20: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers (-44.5)
I picked on Western Kentucky in this slot last week. Well, I didn’t, the Georgia Bulldogs did – to the tune of 70 points. I typically shy away from large covers such as this, but I’m tackling two of them this week. Why? Well, the Hilltoppers have lost by a combined 85 points in the first two weeks. That includes a game against Nevada. Yeah, not exactly a football powerhouse. Enter the National Champion Hoosiers – that still sounds weird as hell. Curt Cignetti rarely takes his foot off the gas, if ever. In just two games, the Hoosiers are averaging 215 yards on the ground and have ten touchdown passes through the air. This could get ugly quick. Indiana covers at home.
$10: Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5) at Maryland Terrapins
“Hey Michael, Hey Michael, Hey Michael, Hey Michael…” – we are looking at Franklin and the Hokies this week. IYKYK. This is the first significant matchup for both teams. There’s history between both coaches. One thing you can say about “Little Game James”, he wins the games he should win, and when his team is favored. A lot of talent came from Penn State to join the Hokies. Virginia Tech is pushing to “wear white” and adding stripe-out games, etc. All a lack of creativity, just like Franklin’s offenses at Penn State. On Maryland’s side, there’s a talented pass rush, so VT QB Ethan Grunkemeyer will have his hands full. But he’s a talented kid, with his arm and legs. Virginia Tech covers on the road.
Parity Test
Four underdogs won last week: Niners, Jets, Giants, Cardinals.
Outright Wins: 4/16
Week 1 Result: -$39.50
Week Two Slate:
Lions (+200) at Bills (-$10)
Saints (+325) at Ravens
Packers at Jets (+155)
Vikings (+185) at Bears
Bengals (+125) at Texans
Eagles at Titans (+275)
Panthers at Falcons (+120)
Browns (+325) at Bucs
Steelers (+200) at Patriots
Raiders (+250) at Chargers
Jaguars (+130) at Broncos
Dolphins (+600) at Niners
Seahawks at Cardinals (+170)
Commanders (+175) at Cowboys
Colts (+250) at Chiefs
Giants (+275) at Rams
