College and NFL Picks Week Three, with Milhouse

Have you ever invited friends over to your house, let’s say, for a friendly Boggle competition and they end up mopping the floor with you?

That’s what’s going on so far this season.

Kevin and I are graciously taking up all this internet space, inviting friends over to pick games against us… and we’re getting blanked.

Here are your standings to date

Celebrity Guests 5-5 +$100

SportsChump: 3-7 -$60

The Wife Hates Sports: 4-6 -$80

You guys are eating up all the food and not even offering to help with the dishes.

Ugh.

It’s okay, there’s plenty of season left for redemption.  I just need to find where I placed that redemption code.

This week, Dr. Milhouse returns refreshed from a week-long vacation in Vermont drinking maple whiskey and seeing the sites.

I sure hope he brought some back because this competition is driving us to drink.  But before I do, let me have…

$50 on New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6 ½)

Let’s take a moment to not overcomplicate things.  While the Lions are clearly flawed and can’t seem to get out of their own way, they’ve been on the short list of Super Bowl contenders the last several years.  The Jets, on the other hand, have been, well…. The Jets.  I am as shocked as the next guy that people consider the Jets decent so let’s look at their schedule so far.  They lost to the Titans, who are one of the worst teams in the league and then beat the Packers, at home, who are an absolute trainwreck to start the season.  The Jets aren’t as good as people are giving them credit for and will be exposed when they play a high-powered offense like Detroit’s.  I know opponents have been lighting up the Lions so far, but their early season schedule has included Buffalo and a feisty Saints team that might be the NFC South Champion.  The Lions still have the best running back in the league, one of the NFL’s top five wide receivers and the better quarterback.  The Jets have yet to face an offense like this.  After this weekend, I get the feeling we’ll get back to talking about just how bad the Jets are.  Detroit covers the six-and-a-half at home.  Note: I also like Detroit total points scored over 28 ½.

$40 on Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-3)

A 4:25 start in New Orleans means Saints fans will have had three extra hours to drink before Sunday’s matchup against the Raiders.  We should call this one the Face Paint Bowl as there’s no way the fans at this game aren’t voted best dressed.  Over/under on how many postgame mug shots will feature individuals with face paint.  Like the Jets I just mentioned, the Raiders are turning heads as a team we thought would be bad but isn’t… we think.  I mean, they’ve played the Dolphins and the Chargers, two of the worst teams in the league.  The pass happy Saints, however, will be an entirely different animal.  They almost knocked off Detroit and Week One and handled Baltimore in Week Two.  It might be time to put some respect on their name.  Don’t look now but Tyler Shough is leading the league in passing yards.  They’ll need to shore up the running game but so far the Saints appear to be one of the legit surprise teams of the year.  That why I like them to cover the three at home against the Raiders.

$30 on New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

If the Jaguars want to be taken seriously in the AFC, as genuine contenders for the Super Bowl, this upcoming home game against the defending AFC Champions is a game they must win.  We were buying high on the Jags in Week One after their beatdown of Cleveland and selling low on the Pats after their loss to a Sam Darnold-less Seahawks.  Then things got back to normal in Week Two.  The Jags got jagged, struggling to move the ball against Denver and the Pats made Aaron Rodgers reconsider whether returning for one final year was a good idea.  As is usually the case, somewhere between Weeks One and Two lies the truth for both these teams.  There’s no denying the Patriots defense is among the best in the league, but can they slow down the Jacksonville offense like Denver did?  Can the Patriots finally figure out what’s going on with their offense against an underrated Jacksonville defense?  This is a battle between two of the league’s best young quarterbacks, but I don’t see a shootout.  This should be a highly contested and well-played battle, but I like the home team covering the small spread.  And if you like my logic but don’t like the three, tease it down or bet Jags money line.

$20 on Seattle Seahawks (Over 23 ½ points scored)

I can’t take all the credit for this pick but I’m jumping on it anyway.  After listening to one of my gambling podcasts, a pundit suggested a bet he liked in the Seattle-Washington game.  With Marcus Mariota starting in place of the injured Jayden Daniels, the Commanders should struggle against a Seattle Seahawks defense that has allowed the second fewest points in the league. Washington’s inability to move the ball should will put Seattle in good field position regularly.  On the flipside, only five teams in the NFL have given up more points than Washington.  Whether the Seahawks Drew Lock or the potentially ready to go Sam Darnold, JSN will get open because that’s what he does.  Look for Seattle to score over 23 ½ points.

Cam Skattebo Any Time Touchdown (+105)

I was leery when my better half drafted Skattebo on her fantasy team.  I just didn’t expect much out of these Giants.  Then, they shook up the world in Week One by beating the Dallas Cowboys.  It’s unfortunate what’s happened to them since then, Dart done for the season with MCL surgery and Malik Nabor’ health routinely iffy.  That leaves Skattebo as their lone reliable starter.  Don’t be surprised to see the Giants lean heavily on this angry young man who is averaging 15 carries per game.  Coach Harbaugh will want to do his best to reign in the pass-happy Jameis Winston.  A sure-fire way to ensure Winston doesn’t throw his daily dose of interceptions is to hand the ball off to the bulldozing Skattebo.  Despite their health woes, I’m quite certain the Giants haven’t given up on the season yet.  This is a winnable game at home to the Titans if they just take care of the football.  That starts with giving it to Cam Skattebo as often as they can.  I expect that means goal line carries and punching one in for six.

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s still early to look hard at stats. With that being said, the Chiefs are allowing the fourth fewest passing yards per game (162.5) through two weeks. The Dolphins have a very young offense that features two rookies that are currently a bit banged up (Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas). Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo is likely going to have a field day creating headaches for this Miami offense. On the flip side, Patrick Mahomes looks healthy, Travis Kelce has re-emerged as an offensive weapon, and Kenneth Walker III has been incredibly explosive. All this adds up to what appears to be a blowout – on paper. That’s why they play the games. Chiefs cover on the road.

$40: Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia Bulldogs (-10.5)

Hard Rock had the line at 10 1/2 while other books had bumped it to fourteen points. Perhaps this is them rewarding me for all those purchased Hard Rock Cafe shirts as a kid. Anyway, this is one of many headliners this weekend. The most interesting statistical matchup will be Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (9 TD, 0 INT, 95.1 QB Rating) versus Oklahoma’s pass defense that is allowing 104.3 ypg (3rd overall). Again, it’s early in the season to rely too much on stats. Heck, maybe simply seeing Oklahoma losing to that Michigan team (that should have one loss) swayed me. Michigan hasn’t impressed me. Either way, the Bulldogs have opened the season strong – and they’re at home. Georgia covers.

$30: Sam Houston Bearkats (+34.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

What in the Sam Hill is Sam Houston doing in these picks – and why do they spell Bearkats with a ‘K’? That should be enough to pick against them. Story over. Fine, you need more. Sam Houston has been in the FBS for just three years. Lindy’s Sports picked them to finish last in Conference USA. They can sling it, however. Sam Houston ranks 6th in passing offense, averaging 345.7 ypg. QB Landyn Locke (973 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT) has fared well, albeit against lesser competition. Maybe that’s why the line is what it is. Score a few touchdowns and Texas Tech will need to post a 50-burger. In fact, you know what? I just changed my mind mid-writeup. Let’s see if I pay for it. Give me Sam Houston and the points on the road.

$20: Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson – who I tore into pretty good last week – was actually quite effective against the Bucs (24-30, 238 yards, 2 TD). So why go against him again this week, especially with Cleveland playing in their home opener? Well, for one, the line is more friendly. The Panthers lost RB Jonathan Brooks to the IR this week. That one stings, but AJ Dillon was effective filling in. It’s only two weeks and we know that the Chicago-Carolina game bloated the numbers, but the Panthers lead the NFL in passing yards. Carolina’s defense also has six takeaways and leads the league in turnover differential. In my mind, last week was more how poorly the Bucs played. Panthers cover on the road.

$10: South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)

Wait, two SEC matchups this week? Yes, I know it has burned me in the past. But the Crimson Tide are averaging nearly 48 points per game through three weeks and get the Gamecocks at home. South Carolina nearly cracks the top 20 in total defense (258.3 ypg allowed). However, that does include games against Kent State and Towson. Again, a little too early for stats. Alabama’s secondary (featuring Zabien Brown and DiJon Lee Jr.) ranks near or at the top nationally. Through three games, the Tide has more INT’s than TD’s allowed. In addition, its run defense ranks fifth in yards allowed. This will be a tall order for the Gamecocks. Too tall, in fact. Alabama covers at home.

Week Three’s Celebrity Guest: Doctor Milhouse (Career 13-12, $+30)

Welcome to the 2026 Season in the NFL, which can be surmised as “Last Healthy Team Standing Wins.” Six different starting quarterbacks are down, running backs are dropping like flies. Even the tight ends that were supposed to be running the show this year are coming up lame. It’s like Squid Game out here. Let’s see if a few teams can remember they’re supposed to be good.

$50 on Bills -7.5 over San Diego

I don’t want to alarm anyone, but Mike McDaniel might not be the offensive guru he was billed to be. San Diego was billed to be Herbert’s breakout year with a three-headed running back and wide receivers that would be the best in the division. Now they’ve lost to two god-awful teams by the exact same 26-14 scoreline. The Bills in their new stadium should roll.

$40 on Bengals -6.5 over Pittsburgh

The Steelers nearly embarrassed themselves losing to Atlanta’s sixth string QB, and then promptly got waxed by the Patriots. The Steelers went 2-12 on third down, and held the ball for 32 minutes, but could only get 235 yards of offense. The Bengals have their offensive line issues, but they should take this one.

$30 on Broncos/Rams Over 45 points

The Rams will be looking to have their passing game take over, and the Broncos will need to match the energy to have any chance. With any luck, this becomes a Sunday Night Shootout.

$20 on Eagles -5.5 over Chicago

Chicago is going to be headed into Monday Night with a backup QB and a receiving core that is headed up by…hold on, let me check my notes here….Kalif Raymond, who is already halfway to last season’s total through two games. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense is rolling along toward another successful year.

$10 on Georgia -13.5 over Oklahoma

If the Sooners can only put up two scores against New Mexico, I’m not optimistic they can stop the Bulldogs from running up the score.

Parity Test

Five underdogs won outright last week (Saints, Vikings, Bengals, Browns and Raiders), meaning had you bet every dog across the board last week, you would have made money.

Week 1: -$39.50 (4/16)

Week 2: +$11.00 (5/16)

Season To Date: -$28.50 (9/32 … 28.12%)

Week Three Slate:

Falcons (+210) at Packers: +$21

Jets (+260) at Lions

Titans (+130) at Giants

Texans at Colts (+130)

Chargers (+275) at Bills

Panthers at Browns (+130)

Bengals at Steelers (+160)

Chiefs at Dolphins (+500)

Seahawks at Commanders (+275)

Patriots (+135) at Jaguars

Vikings at Buccaneers (+100)

Cardinals (+325) at 49ers

Ravens at Cowboys (+150) in Rio

Raiders (+145) at Saints

Rams at Broncos (+120)

Eagles at Bears (+190)