Let’s talk dogs.
No, not these three dogs that are terrorizing neighborhoods from Valrico to the Florida panhandle.
I’m talking about early season NFL underdogs who are doing their fair share of terrorizing.
There is a reason we’re conducting this season-long parity test.
One would think, in a league whose entire infrastructure is built to ensure every team has a chance to win that, at least on paper, no team is significantly better than the next. Accordingly, predicting games can be a gamey task.
It is.
As they say, on any given Sunday, any team, even the Miami Dolphins, has a chance to succeed.
That is exactly what we have seen so far this season.
Of the 48 games played through Week Three, underdogs have not only covered but won OUTRIGHT 16 times, or 33% of the time, meaning, if you’d bet the same flat amount on every underdog so far, you’d be up.
The question we must ask ourselves, and hopefully answer correctly, is will this trend continue or will the better teams rise to the top.
If you figure that out, let me know.
This week, we invite back DRealEmcee who is in third place in this contest, picking games correctly at a 71% clip, so you might want to throw a little sprinkle on what he has to say.
But first, I’ll take…
$50 on Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2 ½)
Last week, one of my winners was the Jags at home covering the three against the visiting Pats. My logic was that if Jacksonville wanted to be taken seriously, beating the defending conference champs was a good place to start. I was right, that was one of the only wagers of the weekend I didn’t have to sweat. By that same logic, I like Cincy this weekend to topple the Jags. The uber-talented Bengals are a long-forgotten team but have the talent, at least on offense, to hang with anyone in the league. And they finally started the season with some wins as opposed to seasons past. Despite two underrated yet still suspect defenses, I fully expect Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to have a whip-it-out contest. They’re both top ten in passing touchdowns and QBR. I don’t see Cincy handling Jacksonville the way the Jags did the Pats, but this has all the makings of a shootout. The climbing over/under, which I like over, represents that sentiment. Considering I’m only laying 2 ½, I’ll take the home team with the better running back, better wide receivers and probably, better quarterback. Bengals cover the 2 ½.
$40 on Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-2 ½)
I haven’t seen too many teams this season more impressive, and more complete, than the San Francisco 49ers. After beating the Los Angeles Rams, America’s other team who we have already crowned Super Bowl champions, we are now flying high on the Denver Broncos. As we should be. They’re a good football team. But I don’t think they’re as good as the Niners. Brock Purdy is playing so well, someone in my fantasy league dumped Lamar Jackson for him. Oh the horror! Kyle Shanahan is using the ever-effective and age-defying Christian McCaffrey sparingly, although you’d never know it by the numbers he’s putting up. Having a healthy Deebo Samuel helps diminish McCaffrey’s workload. Tack on Mike Evans doing Mike Evans things and the Niners have scored the second most points in the league. Yes, Denver remains strong defensively, but the Niners’ offense is already in mid-season form. Stopping them is a tough task, even for Denver. Giving the Broncos the half-a-point nod on the road is almost disrespectful and undoubtedly due to recency bias. I think the Niners continue to prove they’re the league’s best team, at least in September. Speaking of disrespectful, I hereby apologize for not giving the Niners’ defense their due. Don’t be fooled by Arizona putting up 30 against them. This was San Francisco playing with their food. Niners cover the 2 ½.
$30 on Cincinnati (27 or more points scored)
I’m riding the Bengals/ this week. They’re returning home after a tough two-game stretch, which they split at Houston and Pittsburgh. They’ve had a full week to stew over the fact that they lost a game against the Steelers that they should have won. They’re over/under for total points scored this Sunday is 27, a number they’ve hit twice out of their first three games. Jacksonville is weak against the pass, even more so if you consider their numbers are skewed by the way Drake Maye played last week. There’s no way this game is low scoring, not with these two quarterbacks and not with these two defenses. I understand that the Jaguars have somehow allowed the fewest points in the league, but they’ve also played Deshaun Watson (before he got hot against the Bucs), Bo Nix (before he got hot against the Rams) and Drake Maye (who we’re still waiting to get hot). None of those quarterbacks are the caliber of Joe Burrow. I’ll take the Bengals to score 27 or more to bring that Jags defense a little closer to reality.
$20 on Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2 ½)
It’s the Katrina game, or at least I thought it was the Katrina game. I heard someone, somewhere, mention it was the Katrina game. Then I looked it up and Katrina hit 21 years ago… in August. We’re now in October. Either way, not a day goes by where the good party people of New Orleans don’t think about the devastation that natural disaster caused their hometown. These new look Saints will feature an old face in the backfield Monday night. With Travis Etienne on IR, Alvin Kamara will touch the football more than he has been. Whether it’s the Katrina game or not, the Monday night Bourbon Street crew will be fired up for their hated rivals. The Saints lost a game they shouldn’t have to the Las Vegas Raiders and will not let that happen against the Atlanta Falcons. I like Kamara at +105 for an any time touchdown, and I like the Saints to cover just as much. After a Falcons beatdown of a depleted Green Bay Packers team in prime time, and that inexplicable Saints loss, we’re buying low and selling high. Saints minus 2 ½. Side note: I’m also taking the game total over 47 ½ and Saints points scored over 26. I’m also starting Shough in fantasy for good measure.
$10 on Miami Dolphins (Under 14 points scored)
Let’s be bold, shall we? Aside from Malik Willis, name one starter on the Miami Dolphins. It doesn’t matter because none of them will be in the scoring column this weekend. The Miami Dolphins have scored the fewest points in the league this season. The Minnesota Vikings, their opponent this Sunday, have allowed the second fewest points. Tack on the fact that Minnesota’s defensive coordinator Brian Flores is Miami’s old coach and you have a recipe for a beat down of unwatchable proportions. Miami’s projected total points scored opened at 14 and has dropped to 13 ½. Since I’ve done nothing but load up on overs so far this season, let’s be daring and suggest the Dolphins score 14 points or less.
Week Four Celebrity Guest: DRealEmcee (17-7-1, 70.8%) +$270
Hello Friends,
I’m here to bring winning bets into your life and possibly keep you from calling 1-888- ADMIT- IT. As many of you have noted over the years, I don’t bet spreads or ML much anymore, most of my bets are Over/Unders, and Team Totals. So here goes…
1. Penn St/Northwestern- OVER 45 Simply put, I’m buying Northwestern’s offense more than I buy Campbell, Becht, and Penn State. Expect to see points tonight along the lakefront.
2. UCF/Houston- Over 50.5-fully anticipating a Big XII shoutout, Houston coming off a game vs Ga Southern when they only punted 1x (in garbage time) and scored 7 tuddys. Not sold much on UCF’s defense, so expecting points galore.
3. Illinois 1H ML (-325) vs Purdue-This is one I feel rather confident in, after getting slutted out by Jerimiah Smith and Ohio State, Illinois fired their DC, I expect their defense to still suck, just marginally less. You may think Illinois is a 3 yards and a cloud of dust type team, but their offense is top half of the big ten good. So, play it safe and take them to lead at the half vs Purdue which is still in a rebuild under Barry Odom. If you want to play some Illinois Team Totals or some Overs, I won’t stop you.
4. South Alabama/UL Monroe- Over 54.5 – These are 2 pretty good “Fun Belt” offenses that can’t reasonably stop anyone, don’t be surprised if we get a couple of kick/defensive TDs also.
5. Louisiana Tech/ Army- Over 44.5- I know its a service academy, but Army is not good, and definitely not at their past glory under coach Monkhen, this is a team that’s been beat on the ground and through the air, expect this over to hit, Army will have their 2-3 long TD drives and that will make the game close, but choose the better offense.
2 Free Plays: For shits and giggles, if you wanna get greedy, try these two plays. I won’t bet them, but they’re solid plays.
1. La Tech (+2.5 or ML +108)- For reasons stated above, if your offense has a pulse, you can beat Army, especially if you’re at home, which the Bulldogs are here.
2. GB Packers (-3.5 or ML) vs. the Bucs. – Simply put, the Bucs haven’t covered in 12 games. Gotta ride against until the Bowles Brigade breaks through, hope I’m wrong though. Go Bucs, Go Rays.. and go make some money!
KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports
$50: Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers placed both their starting corners on the IR (Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson) this week. Detroit’s top corner (D.J. Reed) is questionable. It’s not like the Lions have been shutting teams down, but they’ve moved the ball quite well. In fact, over three games, Detroit has been outscored by their opponents 95-93. The Lions themselves have scored 31 points in each of the first three games. That’s the magic number. Hold Carolina to 27. Ahh, but another wrinkle. Rain expected this weekend in Charlotte. How much Sunday night remains up in the air. That takes me to the stronger running team or team with the better turnover ratio. The ratios are both +3, but Detroit has Gibbs. Lions cover on the road.
$40: Washington Huskies at USC Trojans (-9)
As I’ve mentioned in previous weeks, the Huskies have been hampered by injuries in the RB room. Four backs are either out for the season or sidelined for significant time. Statistically, it shows, as Washington ranks 124th in rushing offense. Being that one-sided offensively will be a challenge when facing a USC team that ranks 16th in the nation in total offense. Double that challenge when facing the Trojans on the road. Sure, USC has given up 76 points over the last two weeks – and yes, one of those games included Rutgers. We all know the seat is red hot for Lincoln Riley. But again, it all comes back to Washington’s inability to run the ball. That will catch up to them in the second half of this game. USC covers at home.
$30: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
The last six matchups in this rivalry have been close (all one score games). This game – like many – will come down to quarterback play. Bills QB Josh Allen already has 11 TD’s on the season (5 passing, 6 rushing). He’s been unbelievable. As for New England, will it be Drake Maye, Drake “Maybe”, or Drake “No”? The numbers (1 TD, 6 INT, sacked nine times) have not been pretty through three weeks. OK, fine… they’ve been downright ugly. Here’s what makes it worse though. The Patriots will also be without CB Christian Gonzalez and DT Christian Barmore. As if Josh Allen needed another advantage. Bills cover at home.
$20: Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
The biggest stat I found tied to this game lies in the trenches, specifically sacks and sacks allowed. Let’s start there. Tennessee is tied for the most sacks in the country, with 19 through four games. The Tigers have 11 through four games, also respectable. The Vols have allowed 13 (128th), while Auburn has allowed 14 (133rd). Opponents matter, obviously. But each is vulnerable to sacks and each can also get to the QB. The Vols have a slight edge. I also wonder how Tennessee will respond following its tight home loss to #1 Texas. Dating back to 2022 (and including this year), Tennessee is 27-4 at Neyland Stadium. This home crowd will be hungry. Just need to win by a TD. Tennessee covers at home.
$10: Florida Gators (-4.5) at Missouri Tigers
OK, I’ll bite… or perhaps I should say that I’ll “chomp”? In all seriousness, this Gators team looked good last week. Really REALLY good. Fifty-two points and big chunk plays against a highly ranked Ole Miss team. Florida averages nearly 54 points a game through four weeks. The Gators rank 5th in total offense (532.8 ypg), 11th in rushing offense, and 34th in passing offense. A few weeks ago, Auburn hosted the Gators and only lost by five points. So this will be a road test against a ranked team, but this Florida team appears to only be getting better. Gators QB Aaron Philo has been steady and consistent. I mean, the passing numbers even tell the story (16-21, 16-21, 15-22, 16-23)! Florida covers on the road.
Parity Test:
Week 1 Dogs: 4/6 (25%)
Week 2 Dogs: 5/16 (31%)
Week 3 Dogs: 7/16 (44%)
Week Four…
Steelers at Browns (+130) $13
Colts at Commanders (+165) in London
Rams at Eagles (+155)
Packers at Buccaneers (+155)
Jaguars (+125) at Bengals
Cowboys (+135) at Texans
Cardinals at Giants (+115)
Patriots (+250) at Bills
Jets (+150) at Bears
Titans (+525) at Ravens
Dolphins (+450) at Vikings
Chargers (+275) at Seahawks
Broncos (+125) at 49ers
Chiefs at Raiders (+180)
Lions at Panthers (+165)
Falcons (+120) at Saints
